As we head into Week 3 of the NFL, there’s one intriguing favorite that caught my eye while two compelling unders stand out.
I’m looking at three matchups that will set the stage for what could be a week of tight, defensive battles.
Week 3 Best Bet Prediction: Chargers-Steelers Under 36
If it ain’t broke don’t fix it.
The Steelers' under trend continues to be a profitable betting option, driven by their strong defense and conservative play-calling.
This week's matchup against the Chargers presents another opportunity to capitalize on this pattern.
The Chargers have been conservative with their passing game despite having Justin Herbert at quarterback.
Both Herbert and the Steelers' Justin Fields rank among the bottom five in pass attempts through two weeks, with 46 and 43 attempts respectively.
When Herbert does throw, the offensive game plan has been risk-averse, with 87% of his completions coming from within nine yards or behind the line of scrimmage.
Both teams have embraced run-heavy offensive approaches.
The Chargers rank second in rushing yards per game while the Steelers lead the league in rushing attempts.
J.K. Dobbins has been a standout for the Chargers, making an impressive comeback from an Achilles injury.
For the Steelers, Najee Harris leads a committee approach that includes Jaylen Warren and Cordarrelle Patterson, underscoring Pittsburgh's commitment to the ground game.
This conservative, run-heavy strategy from both teams naturally lends itself to lower-scoring games.
With both offenses focused on clock control and limiting risks, take under 36 points.
Week 3 Prediction: Packers-Titans Under 38.5
Jordan Love‘s questionable status due to a knee injury could significantly impact the Packers' offensive strategy.
If backup Malik Willis starts, expect Green Bay to lean heavily on their run game, mirroring their Week 2 approach of 53 rushes to just 14 pass attempts.
This run-heavy strategy could slow the pace and limit scoring opportunities.
Even if Love plays, the Titans' defense presents a formidable challenge.
They lead the NFL in opponent yards per play (3.8) and allow only 3.9 yards per pass attempt. This stout unit could effectively contain the Packers' offense.
The Packers' injury woes extend beyond Love, with four of five starting offensive linemen listed on the injury report.
This lack of protection could lead to more sacks, pressures, a less effective run game, and shorter drives with fewer scoring chances, regardless of who's under center.
While the Titans' defense has been solid, their offense has struggled mightily.
Will Levis has thrown three interceptions in two games, and the team has allowed 7 sacks (tied for third-most in the league).
These issues have limited Tennessee's scoring output to just 17 points per game, ranking 26th in the NFL.
Notably, the Titans are one of only two teams yet to score in the fourth quarter, alongside the struggling Panthers.
With the total opening at 36.5 and now at 38.5, there's value in taking the under in what could be a field goal heavy, low-scoring affair.
Week 3 Prediction: Ravens -1 at Cowboys
The Ravens boast a formidable rushing attack, ranking seventh in the league in rushing yards per game through the first two weeks.
The Cowboys' vulnerability against the run was exposed in Week 2, allowing 190 rushing yards to the Saints including 115 to Alvin Kamara.
Derrick Henry‘s bruising style could be particularly effective against the Cowboys' defense.
Brought in to complement Lamar Jackson‘s agility with power running, Henry showed marked improvement from Week 1 to Week 2, increasing his rushing yards and yards per carry.
His 29-yard run against the Raiders in Week 2 demonstrates his continued big-play ability.
The Cowboys' interior defensive line has been one of the league's worst through the first two weeks, receiving some of the lowest grades at their position according to PFF.
Injuries have further weakened this vulnerable unit, with Jordan Phillips placed on IR and Mazi Smith on the injury report, leaving depth questionable.
Offensively, the Cowboys are struggling with their line, evidenced by 6 sacks on Dak Prescott.
The line has failed to create consistent running lanes, with no Cowboys running back eclipsing 40 yards rushing in either of the first two games.
This lack of a reliable ground game has made the offense one-dimensional and predictable, easing defensive game-planning.
The offensive imbalance forces Prescott to shoulder more burden, potentially leading to increased pass attempts and a higher risk of turnovers or sacks, as seen in his 2 interceptions against the Saints.
Back the Ravens as a short-road favorite.
