As usual, I am going to take a dive into that week’s slate of games and try to dig up some trends. Hopefully, they give us an edge when making game selections each week.
Of course, trends are trends…until they’re not. Sometimes betting on the other end of a trend ending can be advantageous. The goal here isn’t to plant a flag based on a trend, rather to simply shine a spotlight on these trends that exist and talk through some of them as food for thought.
Saturday Special
Saturday NFL games in December have been an annual tradition in the NFL. This will be the 48th time over the 49 seasons there’s been at least one Saturday game, and this week we get a trio of games a day before our primary Sundays.
Over the past decade, there’s a dead even 21-21 split between home and away teams, but away teams have held an overall edge from a betting stance, going 24-16-2 against the spread, including a 5-0-1 record over the past six Saturday games.
Games late in the season favor going under the game total and these Saturday games have fallen under that umbrella. The game total has gone under in nine of the past 11 Saturday games with an average of 35.2 combined points scored in those games (with an average game spread set at 43.2 points).
Favorites have delivered on their expected wins, going 25-17 straight up over the span, including a 6-2 record over the past two seasons. While dogs have fallen on the short end of the scoreboard, they have been the better bet to make, posting a 24-16-2 record against the spread over that span.
Inaugural Starts
With the Panthers turning their offense over to Will Grier this Sunday, this will mark the 11th time a quarterback who wasn’t a Week 1 starter will be making his first-ever career start. That is the most in an NFL season since 2006 when there were 12.
So far to this point, first time starting quarterbacks have a 4-6 record heads up, but they have been a strong bet this season, with those teams notching an 8-2 record against the spread. A big part of that is because the lines are over-inflated. Of course, all 10 of these teams were underdogs, with the average line of them each getting 8.0 points. The lowest line in one of these games was four points, when Brandon Allen made his first career start against the Browns. Grier and the Panthers are currently getting seven points on Sunday. Just one of the Colts’ six wins this season have come by more than seven points.
These, of course, are two of the coldest teams in football. Since Week 9, both teams have a 1-6 record and a 2-4-1 record against the spread while the Colts are 24th in point differential (minus-33) and the Panthers 28th (minus-61).
Something Has Got To Give
Sunday’s Jaguars at Falcons game features the meeting of two of the odder ongoing trends that have lived up all season. Both of these teams have been locked-in bets to go against when facing an out of conference opponent.
The Jaguars have lost (all by seven or more points) and failed to cover in all three of their games versus an AFC opponent this season. Since 2013, that now makes the Jaguars a league-worst 4-23 (14.8%) heads up and against the spread with six consecutive losses and failed covers.
On the other side, Atlanta has been a huge fade to go against when facing an AFC opponent. Already going 0-3 heads up and against the spread this season versus the AFC South, Atlanta has now gone 1-12 over their past 13 games versus the AFC with seven straight losses. Even more (un)impressive over that stretch is that they are 0-13 against the spread in all of those games. The line currently sits with the Falcons giving seven points, inviting a push for these two ongoing trends.
Bet on the Cowboys in Division
Last week, Dallas got their first win and cover versus an opponent with a winning record this season, clubbing the Rams 44-21. This week, they face the Eagles in a matchup that can win Dallas the division.
Divisional games have been fruitful for the Cowboys and bettors. Since the start of the 2017 season, Dallas has a 14-2 record heads up playing Division — which trails only the Patriots over that span (15-2) — but Dallas is also 14-2 against the spread in those games, by far the league’s best mark over that stretch.
With Dak Prescott under center, Dallas is 5-2 against the Eagles heads up and against the line, with one of those losses and failed covers being a Week 17 affair in 2016 when Prescott played just 15 snaps and was rested for the playoffs. As a favorite against the Eagles, Dallas has covered in all four of their games with Prescott as their quarterback, including a 37-10 win back in Week 7.
