As usual, I am going to take a dive into that week’s slate of games and try to dig up some trends. Hopefully, they give us an edge when making game selections each week.
Of course, trends are trends…until they’re not. The goal here isn’t to plant a flag based on a trend, rather to simply shine a spotlight on these trends that exist and talk through some of them as food for thought.
Russell Wilson Owns the AFC At Home
Since the Seahawks drafted Russell Wilson in 2012, they’ve dominated AFC opponents, posting a 23-10 record, which is the best record for any NFC team out of conference over that span and trails only the Patriots (24-10) across the league in non-conference play.
Going a step further, playing in Seattle has been a nightmare for AFC teams to face a Wilson-led Seahawks team. Wilson and the Seahawks have a robust 14-1 straight up record at home versus the AFC and have gone 10-5 against the spread.
That record against the line gets even hotter when the Seahawks are short favorites, like they are this Sunday (-3.5). In the games in which they are giving fewer than six points under those circumstances, Seattle is 6-1 against the spread. Baltimore is tied for the worst start of the season against the spread (1-5) along with Washington and Atlanta.
Bills Going Under
Buffalo is off to their best start (4-1) since the 2011 season and are tied with Detroit and San Francisco for the league’s best record against the spread (4-1).
High-scoring games and the Bills have not been synonymous with this season. Winning with defense first, the 70 points allowed by the Bills are their fewest through five games in a season since 1993. The Bills are the only team that have had every game this season go under the game total. The NFL record for games going under to start a season is six, done by four teams with the last being the 2006 Denver Broncos. Going back to last season, seven of the past eight games involving the Bills have gone under the game total and in 12 of the 16 starts made by Josh Allen.
The season-high for combined points in a Bills game this is 42 when they played the Giants, while the other four have all featured 38 or fewer points. This week’s game against the Dolphins has a 41-point game total as the Bills look to match the longest under streak to ever start a season.
One last note on this Bills game at home versus the Dolphins. Currently sitting as 17-point favorites, this is the most points the Bills have been favored by in a game since Week 14, 1992. The Bills actually lost that game heads up 24-17 to the Jets.
Ramming East
The Rams have taken a step back the past three weeks with two losses at home, but no team has been better on the road than the Rams under Sean McVay. Since McVay was hired, the Rams are a league-best 16-4 (80.0%) on the road. For comparison sake, the Patriots are behind the Rams at 13-6 (68.4%) over that same timeframe. This season, the Rams have started 2-1 on the road and 3-0 against the spread.
Traveling east, the Rams have been even better. Under McVay, the Rams are 5-0 straight up and against the spread in the Eastern Time Zone in the regular season. That includes wins and covers in both Week 1 against Carolina and in Week 3 in Cleveland. In early kickoffs, they are 3-0 with covers in each game.
This week, the Rams travel to Atlanta as three-point favorites. Atlanta has started off the season tied with Baltimore and Washington with a league-worst 1-5 start against the spread.
Dallas Has Been Rolling in Division
Like the Rams, the Cowboys have made everyone forget about their hot start, dropping three consecutive games. This Sunday night they’ll look to break that losing streak against the Eagles. Dallas will have their hands full if they are missing Tyron Smith, La’El Collins, and Amari Cooper on offense, but playing in the division is something that has been kind to the Cowboys.
Dallas is 12-2 against their NFC East rivals since the start of 2017, which trails only New England in divisional play (13-2), but the Cowboys are also a league-best 12-2 against the line in those games. That includes a six-game streak against the opponent and the line and a three-game streak against the Eagles.