As usual, I am going to take a dive into that week’s slate of games and try to dig up some trends. Hopefully, they give us an edge when making game selections each week.
Of course, trends are trends…until they’re not. The goal here isn’t to plant a flag based on a trend, rather to simply shine a spotlight on these trends that exist and talk through some of them as food for thought.
Away Teams Keep Crushing
A few weeks ago we highlighted how homefield advantage was no longer any advantage at all through four weeks of the 2019 season. Given the short sample, we were prepared for things to inevitably take a turn in the other direction, There’s been some slight regression to those quarter-poll numbers, but away teams have still been the best bet you can make.
Over the three weeks since that post, away teams have gone 25-17-1 against the spread (58.1%) and have a 24-19 record (55.8%) straight up. Through seven weeks of the season, that now makes away teams a staggering 65-39-2 against the line (61.3%) and has them 59-46-1 straight up (55.6%). Those are the highest rates at this stage of an NFL season in the 2000s.
Rolling that over a step further, home favorites have been absolutely buried. Road dogs are now a blistering 45-23-2 (64.3%) against the spread through seven weeks. That mark is also the highest rate in the 2000s. We keep waiting for home field to come into play for the 2019 season, but through seven weeks, there’s been no place like the road…
…Unless You’re the Patriots
Playing anywhere has been fruitful for the Patriots, but they are on one of the hottest homes streaks in the league. Starting 3-0 at home this season, the Patriots have now won 19 consecutive games at Gillette Stadium. The next closest current home winning streak ongoing in the NFL is just three games.
That 19-game home winning streak is tied for the fourth-best since the NFL merger and is just two wins short of matching the Patriots’ franchise record set over the 2002-2005 seasons. Despite the impressive streak, New England still has some work to do to get to the all-time record of 31 consecutive home wins sets by the Dolphins over the 1971-1974 seasons.
The Patriots aren’t undefeated against the spread in those games, but are a league-best 15-4 against the line over that stretch and are 7-2 against the line as double-digit-point favorites over that winning streak.
October Saints
All Saints Day is technically the first day of November every year, but the New Orleans Saints have made it a habit of dominating for the entire month of October leading up to that holy day.
I was saving this one until we reached their final game of the month, but with three straight wins and covers this month, the Saints have won and covered in 16 consecutive games played in October. Regardless of changing over from Drew Brees to Teddy Bridgewater, and being a road underdog over the past two weeks, the Saints have kept this odd streak going. Dating back to the 2014 season, New Orleans is 19-3 in the month of October with a 20-2 record against the spread. The Saints are 10.5-point favorites already this week at home against the Cardinals, their largest point spread in a game over that stretch.
Wake Up Eagles
Philadelphia has been one of the more disappointing teams to start the 2019 season, but they have one of the odder trends going on. The Eagles have covered in just two of their past 10 early kickoffs (5-7 SU) and are a league-worst 2-8 against the spread in early kickoffs since the start of last season.
Under Doug Pederson, they are 29th in the league against the line (12-17) in those games and are just 2-6 against the spread as underdogs in those games. The Eagles are currently 1.5-point underdogs visiting the Bills this Sunday.