As usual, I am going to take a dive into that week’s slate of games and try to dig up some trends. Hopefully, they give us an edge when making game selections each week. 

Of course, trends are trends…until they’re not. The goal here isn’t to plant a flag based on a trend, rather to simply shine a spotlight on these trends that exist and talk through some of them as food for thought.

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Out of Conference Trends

Week 9 has a number of cross-conference matchups that involve teams that have been on a run of dominance over the opposing conference.

The Titans are already 2-0 against the NFC this season and have won six consecutive games (5-1 ATS) against the conference. But this week, they run into a team equally as hot in these games. Since 2017, the Panthers are 8-2 against the AFC (2-0 this season) and are 7-3 against the spread in those games.

The Chiefs are 3-5 against the NFC over their past eight games but have been dreadful covering in those games, going 1-6-1 against the spread over that span. This season, they’ve already failed to cover in their two games versus the Lions and Packers. This week, the Chiefs get the Vikings, who have a stellar track record facing the AFC. Since hiring Mike Zimmer in 2014, Minnesota has a league-best 16-5 record against the spread when facing an AFC opponent.

Oakland has been an inviting host for NFC opponents and this week they host the Lions. The Raiders have a 3-11 record in their past 14 games versus the NFC when playing in Oakland with a 2-11-1 record against the spread versus those opponents.

The Packers have run hot this season and already have picked up three wins against the AFC as a part of their 7-1 record. Green Bay has now won seven of their past eight games versus an AFC opponent with five wins in a row. Against the spread, they are 7-1 in those games with five consecutive covers. The Packers look to make it three wins against the AFC in a row against the Chargers.

No Home Field Advantage in Los Angeles

The Chargers are not only running into a hot Green Bay team, but regardless of opponent, they are also working against having to essentially play in a stadium that is filled with fans from the visiting team. Since moving to Los Angeles and into the now Dignity Health Sports Park, the Chargers are 6-12-1 against the spread at home, 30th in the league in terms of covering at home over that span.

Recently, it’s gotten worse as well. Over their past 12 home games, the Chargers are just 2-9-1 against the spread and haven’t covered in any of their past six games at home. 

As a home underdog, it also gets worse. The Chargers are 2-7 both straight up and against the spread in their past nine games as a home underdog. 

The 12th Man Isn’t Covering

Another team that has been solid to bet against at home recently has been the Seahawks. Seattle has started the season 2-2 at home this year, but haven’t covered in any of those four games. Dating back to last season, they’ve now failed to cover in five straight games at home. As a home favorite of six or more points — the Seahawks are currently six-point favorites this week against the Buccaneers — Seattle is 2-7 against the spread.

Pulling Trends for the Ravens

The Sunday Night Football game between the Ravens and Patriots is the most anticipated game of the weekend. The Ravens have a gleaming 12-1 record at home (7-5 ATS) in regular-season prime time games under John Harbaugh, including 10 wins in a row.

The downside for the Ravens is they have a league-worst 4-8 record (33.3%) against the spread as home underdogs since Harbaugh was brought on in 2008. 

Dallas Owns the NFC East

The Cowboys have already won and covered three games versus their division this season, which tacks onto their impressive dominance over their rivals over the past two-plus seasons. Dallas is now 13-2 against their NFC East rivals since the start of 2017, which trails only New England in divisional play (14-2). But against the spread, the Cowboys are also a league-best 13-2 against the line in those games. That includes a seven-game streak against those opponents with five straight wins and covers versus the Giants. If the Cowboys can cover on Monday, they will have to do so as the largest road favorites (-7) they’ve been visiting the Giants since the 1997 season (-7.5) in a game that they actually ended up losing outright.