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Last year, Jordan Love solidified his spot as the Packers’ starting quarterback despite a rocky start to the season.
Matt LaFleur was able to right the ship after Week 9, which led to some astonishing statistical splits.
The Packers’ first 15 plays were terrible to start the season.
The lack of efficiency from their offense not only wasn’t scoring points (#29 in score rate), but they also weren’t helping their defense at all, ranking #29 in drive distance.
They weren’t just not scoring, they were not even flipping the field to allow their defense the benefit of good starting field position.
But LaFleur quickly made massive improvements in how he began games and scripted plays.
The results were shocking, whether you look at the first 15 plays or the first three drives.
First 15 Plays Weeks 1-9:
- #30 in success rate (29%)
- #28 in EPA/play (-0.29)
- #31 in yards/play (3.9)
- #32 in third down avoidance (27%)
Week 10 onward:
- #1 in success rate (53%)
- #1 in EPA/play (+0.21)
- #4 in yards/play (6.6)
- #4 in third down avoidance (17%)
The results in the first three drives were extremely similar.
The first three drives in Weeks 1-9 saw them rank #29 in percent of drives to score points, #32 in punt rate, #29 in drive distance, and #28 in points/drive.
But from Week 10 onward, they ranked #1 in percent of drives to score points, #2 in punt rate, #3 in drive distance, and #1 in points/drive.
The Packers needed to be more explosive early in games and develop a better game plan coupled with a philosophy that emphasized scoring early and building leads.
Weeks 1-9, the Packers averaged just 1.6 points in the first quarter (#30). The only teams worse were the lowly teams from New York.
They followed that abysmal production by averaging just 2.9 points in the second quarter (#32), dead last in the NFL.
As a result, they averaged just 4.5 first half points (#32) and trailed by nearly one full TD at halftime on average, losing by a collective 55 points at halftime across all their games.
However, from Week 10 onward?
Green Bay averaged 14.8 first half points (#6). They averaged 7.2 first quarter points (#2). They led by a collective 55 points at halftime across all their games.
What remains to be seen is which Packers team we’ll get to start the 2024 season.
Will we witness the stagnant, unproductive Packers of early 2023? Or will it be the dominant Green Bay squad that became the first 7-seed in NFL history to earn a playoff victory?
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Packers Over/Under Wins, 2024:
The Packers are predicted to win 9.5 games in 2024, based on win totals from Vegas Odds.
Why You Should Bet the Over: Packers Win Total in 2024
#1 Reason to Bet the Over:
The Packers turned their 2023 around despite having one of the youngest offensive cores in the league.
It is fair to expect growth from players like Jordan Love, Jayden Reed, and Luke Musgrave, and a healthy Christian Watson adds an explosive element to the passing game.
As good as they were in the second half of last season, the Packers may have room to grow.
#2 Reason to Bet Over:
Despite one of the younger offensive lines in the league, the Packers ranked second in ESPN’s pass block win rate and third in pressure rate allowed last season.
They added Jordan Morgan to the mix in the first round, and he should be given every chance to earn a starting job at tackle right out of the gate.
» Bet the Packers Win Total Over
Why You Should Bet the Under: Packers Win Total in 2024
#1 Reason to Bet the Under:
The Packers are expected to jump from facing the 26th-toughest schedule of offenses last year to the second-toughest in 2024.
Green Bay is projected to face nine of 2023’s top 11 toughest passing attacks including the 49ers, Dolphins, Eagles, and the division-rival Lions twice.
They beefed up the secondary by signing Xavier McKinney, but he and the rest of the defensive backs will have their hands full.
#2 Reason to Bet the Under:
Green Bay’s red zone efficiency will almost certainly regress.
They scored a touchdown on 95% of their drives that reached a goal-to-go situation, the best rate for any team since at least 2000.
More field goals (or turnovers) in those situations could knock their points per game average down.