It’s that time of year to start looking at player props bets for the upcoming 2021 NFL season. In the coming weeks, we’ll take a look at some Over and Under Future bets worth considering at each position group.
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Why You Should Bet the UNDER on Patrick Mahomes’ Passing Yards Prop Bet
- Unfavorable game scripts for passing
- Patrick Mahomes might rest in Week 18 if playoffs are clinched
- Chiefs offensive line may feature four new starters
Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes is capable of leading the NFL in passing in any given year. However, he’s never done it because it simply isn’t necessary for Kansas City to win games. As a result, it’s probably best to take the under on any of these lines:
- 5050.5 passing yards on DraftKings
- 5025.5 passing yards on BetMGM
- 5000.5 passing yards on FanDuel
The Kansas City Chiefs are currently favored by a touchdown or more in 10 games, which does not bode well for Mahomes’s yardage total. In 2020, Mahomes averaged just 275.3 yards when the Chiefs won by more than a touchdown, compared to 352 yards per game in all other contests.
There’s also a strong possibility Mahomes rests the final week of the season. In fact, Vegas appears to be expecting this, as Kansas City’s Week 18 game at Denver is one of just two games in which the Chiefs are not favored by more than a field goal.
The turnover on the Chiefs’ offensive depth chart is also a factor to consider. Sammy Watkins is gone, and no comparable replacement was added. There will also likely be four new starters on the offensive line, possibly including two rookies (Creed Humphrey and Trey Smith).
These changes likely won’t have a significant impact on the Chiefs' long-term outlook, but it could cause the offense to be slightly less efficient in the early weeks of the season, suppressing Mahomes’s numbers.