We’re back with three data-driven prop betting recommendations for the QBs on the Week 13 slate. Here are the top opportunities to take advantage of this weekend.
Season Record: 20-13
WHY YOU SHOULD BET THE OVER FOR MATT RYAN PASSING YARDS IN WEEK 13
- Buccaneers pass funnel defense
- Falcons big underdogs
- SIS Projection: 282 passing yards
Matt Ryan and the Falcons bounced back from an embarrassing shutout loss on national TV two weeks ago with a win against the Jaguars. Atlanta is clinging onto second place in the NFC South and will welcome in the first-place Buccaneers on Sunday.
- 253.5 passing yards on BetMGM (-115)
We’ve often referenced the pass-heavy trend against the Buccaneers defense this season. The league average neutral pass rate is right around 60%, but Tampa Bay opponents are throwing on 72% of their plays and averaging 40 attempts per game.
Matt Ryan has attempted 40+ passes in four games this season, including his first game against the Bucs, and is in position to do it again this week considering the Falcons are heavy underdogs (ATL +10). In those four games, Ryan’s passing yardage totals have been 283, 300, 336, and 342.
Over the last three seasons, Ryan has 40+ attempts in 17 games and hasn’t gone under this week’s passing yards prop total (253.5) in any of them.
Highest Neutral Pass Rate Against (2021)
| TEAM | NEUTRAL PASS RATE AGAINST |
|---|---|
| Buccaneers | 72% |
| Football Team | 67% |
| Ravens | 66% |
Additional tips: This game could get ugly for the Falcons who have struggled mightily against the best teams on their schedule this season. Hopefully, it lands in the range of a blowout that causes Atlanta to pass frequently but not bench Ryan like they did at the end of the Patriots game. Based on the SIS projection, there’s some room to chase this line if it increases.
WHY YOU SHOULD BET THE OVER FOR JIMMY GAROPPOLO PASSING YARDS IN WEEK 13
- Seahawks time of possession imbalance
- Favorable scheme
- SIS Projection: 267 passing yards
Winners of three straight, San Francisco is playing their best football of the season and will travel to Seattle this Sunday in hopes of boosting their playoff chances.
- 225.5 passing yards on DraftKings (-115)
On the other side of this matchup, Seattle has lost three in a row since Russell Wilson’s return from injury. The Seahawks offense has struggled to pick up first downs and stay on the field, resulting in the most plays per game for their opponents.
Most Plays per Game on Defense (2021)
| TEAM | PLAYS PER GAME |
|---|---|
| Seattle | 73 |
| Raiders | 68 |
| Giants | 68 |
Based on pure volume, Seattle is tied with Tampa Bay as the defense seeing the most pass attempts per game (despite being ranked 20th in neutral pass rate against). San Francisco is a run-heavy offense but there should be enough opportunity for a surging Jimmy Garoppolo to cover his prop number.
Garoppolo ranks second in Independent Quarterback Rating (IQR) over the past month and has been especially successful against zone coverage this season. The scheme advantage plays into Garoppolo’s favor this week against a Seattle defense that plays the most zone in the league (83%). So far this season, Garoppolo has averaged 9 Yards per Attempt vs zone (2nd-best) compared to 8.5 against man coverage (eighth-best).
Additional tips: This is another instance where the SIS projection is significantly higher than the betting line. Should it move, feel comfortable playing the line up to 228.5, and consider pairing it with the overs for pass attempts (29.5) and completions (20.5).
WHY YOU SHOULD BET THE UNDER FOR LAMAR JACKSON PASSING YARDS IN WEEK 13
- Jackson’s recent struggles
- Blueprint to stop Jackson
- SIS Projection: 212 passing yards
Baltimore travels to Pittsburgh this weekend in search of their third straight win. The Ravens have won two in a row despite scoring just 16 points in both contests, while the Steelers are looking to break a two-game skid.
- 231.5 passing yards on DraftKings (-115)
It’s been a tale of two halves so far this season for Lamar Jackson. Early on, he was looking like the best version of himself as a passer, but it’s been much more difficult for him in the Ravens’ last five games.
In Weeks 1-6, Jackson’s 80% on-target throw rate made him the fifth most accurate passer in the league. Since that point, he’s only been on-target with 62% of his passes, which is worse than every QB other than a mending Russell Wilson.
One reason for Jackson’s recent struggles has been that opposing teams are cranking up the heat with frequent blitzes. Baltimore has been blitzed more than any other team this season, with their opponent’s blitz rate up to 37% over the past five games.
Highest Blitz Rate Faced (2021)
| TEAM | BLITZ RATE |
|---|---|
| Falcons | 34% |
| Patriots | 31% |
| Bears | 30% |
Jackson has averaged a league-best 8.2 yards per attempt when no blitz, but just 6.6 YPA when the opponent sends five-or-more rushers.
The Steelers have shown a willingness to blitz, especially when the situation calls for it. Chicago also appears on the list of most frequently blitzed teams — when they faced Pittsburgh last month, the Steelers sent a blitz on one-third of Justin Fields’s dropbacks.
Additional tips: Jackson has been running the ball a bit more to help compensate for his struggles in the air. If that trend continues, it will take an efficient passing game to beat his yardage total, something he hasn’t shown of late. Be willing to play this number down to 229.5 if it were to move.