The 2024 College Football season is right around the corner, which means it is time to start looking for the best win total bets for the upcoming season.
In this series, I will take a look at win total bets for a few appealing teams in each of the four major conferences.
There are many more futures available in our 2024 College Football Futures package.
With that out of the way, let's dive into the SEC.
Best Bet: Texas Over 10.5 wins
Texas enters the SEC with a relatively favorable schedule.
They should be favored in at least 11 games with a home contest against Georgia as their only potential underdog situation.
The losable games on the slate appear to be:
- at Michigan
- Oklahoma
- Georgia
- at Texas A&M
Including Michigan on this list might be a stretch given the turnover on the Wolverines' roster.
Texas also benefits from that game occurring on September 7, giving Michigan just one warm-up game against Fresno State to sort through some potential issues.
Quinn Ewers returning at quarterback should give the Longhorns a clear edge at the position in almost every contest, but their biggest advantage might be the offensive line.
Texas returns four starters from an offensive line that ranked fifth in the country in opponent-adjusted pressure rate allowed.
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Best Bet: Missouri Over 9.5 wins
Missouri went 10-2 last year and ranks 31st in returning production, according to ESPN’s Bill Connelly.
Quarterback Brady Cook, who ranked fourth in the SEC in passing yards a season ago, is among the key returners. Cook will also have his top three targets back for another year: Luther Burden, Mookie Cooper, and Theo Wease.
In addition to a considerable amount of returning talent, Missouri is the biggest beneficiary of the expanded conference.
The Tigers avoid Georgia, Texas, Ole Miss, and LSU 一 potentially four of the top five teams in the league.
The toughest test for Eli Drinkwitz’s squad will be a trip to Tuscaloosa to take on Alabama.
Beyond that matchup with the Crimson Tide, a visit to Texas A&M and a home contest with Oklahoma appear to be the only other games on the schedule that wouldn’t be considered a significant upset if Missouri lost.
If the Tigers simply win the easy ones and go 1-2 in those tougher contests, they hit this over.
Best Bet: Mississippi State Over 4 wins
Mississippi State stumbled to a 5-7 record in the first year of the post-Mike Leach era in 2023.
However, Leach’s replacement Zach Arnett was a bad fit from the start and tried to take the program in a completely different direction.
Enter Jeff Lebby, who runs a version of the Air Raid offense, although it is more similar to the current Tennessee scheme than Leach’s — Lebby helped teach the system to Josh Heupel when they were both at UCF.
With Lebby’s influence, Mississippi State’s offense should have more of a pulse this fall after ranking dead last in scoring offense in the SEC last season.
Baylor transfer Blake Shapen will also be a critical factor in the Bulldogs exceeding expectations. His accuracy fits Lebby’s scheme well.
Based on route-adjusted data from Sports Info Solutions, Shapen’s on-target rate was 1.7% above expected last year, ranked 17th among Power Five quarterbacks.
The schedule is another factor in taking the over with the Bulldogs starting the year with four winnable games:
- Eastern Kentucky
- at Arizona State
- Toledo
- Florida
A 4-0 start is not out of the question, but 3-1 would still put the Bulldogs in a good position to hit the over thanks to home games against Arkansas and Massachusetts later in the year.
We enter riskier territory if this line jumps to 4.5 because Mississippi State would need a 5-1 mark in those six games (or a significant upset elsewhere).
The potential for a push significantly lowers the risk.
Best Bet: Arkansas Under 4.5 wins
Arkansas is hoping quarterback Taylen Green, a transfer from Boise State, can elevate the program and save Sam Pittman’s job.
But the quarterback play of K.J. Jefferson, who transferred to UCF, was hardly the problem during last season’s 4-8 campaign.
The Razorbacks have three games on the schedule they should win: Arkansas-Pine Bluff, UAB, and Louisiana Tech.
A road game at Oklahoma State, however, means a 4-0 non-conference record is extremely unlikely.
So if Arkansas is to hit the over, where will its two SEC wins come from?
Wins over Texas A&M, Tennessee, LSU, Ole Miss, Texas or Missouri would be significant upsets 一 the Razorbacks are likely to be 10-point underdogs or worse in each of those games.
That leaves road contests at Auburn and Mississippi State as their most winnable conference games.
Arkansas hasn’t won multiple SEC road games since the 2015 squad under Bret Bielema, so it’s tough to envision a realistic path to five wins.
Best Bet: Kentucky Under 6.5 wins
Kentucky has four games on the schedule we can probably lock in as losses:
- vs Georgia
- at Ole Miss
- at Tennessee
- at Texas
That means the Wildcats likely must go 7-1 in their other eight games to hit this over.
Perhaps they can pull it off if Georgia transfer Brock Vandagriff exceeds expectations at quarterback, but that’s a tough ask of an inexperienced quarterback in this conference.
Auburn, South Carolina, Florida, and Louisville will be Kentucky’s toughest tests outside of those four games we’re locking in as losses.
The Wildcats should be satisfied with a 2-2 mark in those pivotal games. That would be enough to send them to a bowl game while still hitting the under.