Every single year we see an upstart team rise out of nowhere to surprise the NFL. Just last year the Browns, Bucs, and Dolphins improved their win totals by 4 + games and the prior season we saw San Francisco improve their win total by nine wins. Last season, there were four teams that made the playoffs after not making it the prior season. It happens every year and it’s my goal to try and find that team that could surprise and make the leap into the playoffs this season. With that in mind, I am planting my flag in the NFC with the Carolina Panthers as this year’s team we didn’t see coming.
Last year, under first year head coach Matt Ruhle, the Panthers went 5-11. They brought in veteran quarterback Teddy Bridgewater who performed ok (20th in EPA per dropback) but was clearly not the long-term answer at the position. Instead of drafting a QB in the top 10, they decided to use assets to trade for Sam Darnold. Darnold was terrible last season with the Jets, finishing 32nd among 32 QBs in EPA per drop back and 28th in completion percentage over expected.
What would make me think that he was actually any good considering he ranks 43rd out of 45 QBs in EPA since he came into the league in 2018? Great question. I don’t have a great answer except maybe everything surrounding Darnold is so much better than what he had in New York that he can be elevated enough to at least be a competent starting NFL QB. Let’s dig in a bit to at least see if there is something to hang our hat on.
He will be going to an offense that is led by OC Joe Brady, a young rising offensive mind in the game of football. Brady is only 31 years old, but his meteoric rise is well-known considering he led an LSU passing offense that won a national championship and landed Joe Burrow as the No. 1 pick in the 2020 NFL Draft.
Maybe he can elevate Darnold in a way Adam Gase couldn’t. Gase’s incompetence has been well-publicized and considering he was the head coach in Miami with Ryan Tannehill, who then became an elite QB only after he left Gase’s control, it’s clear Gase is a detriment to a QB’s success. On early downs in single-digit score situations, the Jets passed the ball at the seventh-lowest rate in the NFL, while Brady and Carolina threw it at the fifth-highest rate. In one score situations and on second down and long (six or more yards to go), the Panthers threw the ball at the highest rate in the NFL (79%) while Gase and the Jets threw it at the lowest rate (55%).
What did the Jets produce when they ran the football at the highest rate on those second down and long situations? The single worst success rate in the NFL (16%) with a measly 2.6 yards per carry average. By comparison, Atlanta had the second lowest success rate running the football on second and long at 23%. The Jets weren’t even close. When Gase did allow Darnold to throw in those tough situations, he wasn’t bad, producing a 47% success rate on 49 attempts, above the 45% league average on throws in that situation. Purely just giving Darnold a chance to succeed this season alone could lead to better overall success.
Now he gets to play with actual weapons, including explosive players on offense like Christian McCaffery, Robby Anderson, D.J. Moore, and second-round rookie Terrace Marshall Jr. In New York, when Darnold did have Anderson in the lineup, his stats were markedly better than without. With Anderson in the lineup the Jets went 11-14 (2-11 without) and Darnold produced a higher yards per attempt (6.9 vs 6.0), yards per game (229 vs 181), TD percentage (4.2% vs 2.5%) and QB rating (83.6 vs 72).
In the 2019 season, with Anderson still on the Jets, Darnold ranked ninth best among NFL QBs in clean pocket adjusted completion percentage and 10th best in yards per attempt. Those numbers nosedived to 35th and 38th in 2020, but again with zero weapons on the outside it’s hard to really execute in tough spots with no help even when facing a clean pocket.
Not to mention he finally won’t have a bottom tier offensive line like he had in New York. The Panthers were 17th in adjusted sack rate allowed last season, while the Jets ranked 29th. The Jets have ranked bottom-five in adjusted sack rate in each of the last two seasons. I do worry that the Panthers didn’t address the OL enough in the off season, but they surely can’t be as miserable as Darnold has seen with the Jets since 2018. I don’t think it is unreasonable to think that with a complete flip of offensive philosophy/coaching to go along with a dramatic improvement in offensive weapons that Darnold can at least become an average NFL starter this season, if not above average.
On top of the quarterback situation, it is important to also examine what happened last year in Carolina and see if there are some areas that could positively regress and lend some hope for a bounce back. There are a couple of “luck” based stats that tend to regress that the Panthers could see this season. For one, opposing field goal kickers made an NFL-leading 93.5% of attempts against the Panthers. Opposing kickers only missed two field goals on 31 attempts last season and made 7-of-8 attempts (88%) of 50+ yards. Considering the rest of the NFL kickers only made 62% of their kicks over 50 yards, it is unreasonable to expect the Panthers will suffer similar fate again in this regard. The season prior, opponents only made 77% of their total attempts. When you also consider Football Outsiders’ hidden points metric, which calculates all special teams factors out of a team’s control, the Panthers ranked 6th unluckiest.
In addition, the Panthers’ point differential of -52 would normally equate to a team that should win 6.6 games instead of the five they won last season. That -1.6 difference in actual wins versus expected based on Pythagorean expectation, ranks as the sixth-worst in the NFL. What makes that more interesting is that the Panthers were tasked with facing the second-toughest schedule in the NFL based on DVOA strength of schedule. Even against the second-most difficult schedule last season, the Panthers played the second-most amount of one score games at 11. They went 3-8 in those one score games which helps explain why they underperformed their expected win total by so much. In the last three seasons, 17 teams produced a close game win percentage under 30% and those teams in aggregate went from winning 20% of their close games to 45% the following season. That alone could lead to 2-3 extra wins if we assume the Panthers are playing another extremely difficult schedule.
Speaking of schedules, let’s examine what Carolina will be facing this year. When looking at the current win totals from Pinnacle sportsbook, the Panthers are expected to face the 18th most difficult schedule and currently are only facing four teams favored to make the playoffs (Dallas, Buffalo, TB 2x). Dallas is currently dealing with Dak Prescott’s second MRI on his shoulder and even then, the Cowboys are only favored to make the playoffs because they play in the worst division in football. If it is assumed that Tampa is the class of the NFC South, especially with the Saints not expected to compete for division title, then there is a chance the Bucs could rest their starters in their week 18 matchup with Carolina. That lessens the strength of schedule even more for the Panthers in that case.
The Panthers also will lead the NFL with a net rest advantage of +12, tied for the highest such rest advantage the NFL has seen since 2002. Carolina doesn’t have to face an opponent coming off of a bye all season and also gets to play two games against opponents coming off a Monday night game. In the aforementioned matchup against one of the opponents favored to make the playoffs, Dallas, the Panthers will have extra rest coming off of a Thursday night game against the Eagles, while Dallas has to travel to the west coast on a Monday night to face the Chargers. Even though Carolina is playing in Dallas, that’s a strong rest advantage that the Panthers will benefit from among many others during the season.
I should mention that on the other side of the coin, the Panthers benefited greatly from some turnover luck on defense. Not only did the defense rank first in percentage of opponent fumbles recovered but they ranked fourth in the NFL in most EPA gained from defensive turnovers. The defense ranked 19th in yards per play allowed, 24th in EPA per play allowed and 25th in success rate allowed. The turnovers helped keep Carolina in man games but considering the murderers row of QBs they had to face (Mahomes, Rodgers, Kyler, Herbert, Carr, Cousins, Ryan 2x, Brees 2x, Brady 2x) last season, it would be hard to expect anything different from a young and rebuilding defense. They only have to face five QBs that ranked in the top 10 in EPA per dropback last season as compared to the seven last season.
The defense was very young last season but showed flashes including 2020 high picks, DT Derrick Brown and safety Jeremy Chinn. In addition, they boast maybe the most underrated defensive player in the NFL in edge rusher Brian Burns. Burns ranked sixth among edge rushers in PFF pass rush grade and produced the 13th highest pressure rate. The Panthers did a nice job in free agency grabbing edge rusher Hassan Reddick for a very reasonable one-year/$8 million contract. Reddick had a breakout season in 2020, producing 13 sacks, although his 23% sack to pressure rate most likely is not sustainable. Even at a league median sack/pressure rate, Reddick would have been expected to produce a solid eight sacks last season. He is a welcome addition to pair with Burns on the edge.
At corner, the Panthers are hoping for another solid season from Donte Jackson, who graded out as the 37th best coverage CB by PFF last season and produced a top 20 QB rating allowed against one of the toughest schedules of opposing QBs last season. Adding top 10 pick Jaycee Horn to the mix as the second CB could turn this secondary into a solid group quickly if he is able to step in right away. Overall, this defense should benefit from an easier schedule and more talent to offset some of the turnover regression you would expect from last season.
Based on a potential emergence from Darnold with the better coaching and solid group of weapons to go along with a young, up and coming defense and a soft schedule with a big rest advantage, it will not surprise me if the Panthers can win 10+ games and make the playoffs as a wild card in the NFC.
