For purposes of these articles I will list the contest line as well as the most current line using 5Dimes sportsbook. I will note if the current line is playable or not. I have personally bet all of these sides unless otherwise noted. As always, shop for the best lines.
Current NFL Record:
YTD Supercontest Picks: 25-28-1 (47%)
Thursday Night Football: 9-1-1 (90%)
Other Sunday Posted Picks: 10-5 (67%)
All Posted Picks: 44-34-2 (56%)
Browns -10.5 vs Miami (Current Line: -10.5 -110 5Dimes)
- I faded Miami last week when I took Buffalo and will do it again tomorrow. Let’s think about this for a second. When the Browns hosted Buffalo two weeks ago, they were favored by 3 points where the market said the teams were even. Last week, Buffalo closed -7 at Miami. Flip for home field and that would imply Buffalo would have been -13 at home. So, at -10.5 we are getting essentially 2.5 points of value on the Browns. Maybe when you consider the losses of Myles Garrett and Larry Ogunjobi you deduct 0.5-1 points, we still have value here on the Browns. I would take the Browns at anything under -12.
- The Browns’ schedule these first 11 weeks have been brutal. In fact, it’s the fourth toughest schedule in the NFL according to Football Outsiders. This should be a big game for Baker Mayfield and the passing game. The Browns have not faced a single pass defense that ranks in the bottom 10 of DVOA pass ratings and have not faced a pass defense that is in the bottom 12 of yards per attempt allowed this season.
- Now the Browns get to face the 32nd ranked pass defense in the Dolphins. They will also be facing a secondary that is down their best CB in Xavien Howard as well as two starting Safeties in Reshad Jones and Bobby McCain.
- On the other side of the ball, yes, the Browns missing three starting defensive linemen is a problem, but Miami is not a team that can take advantage. They have the worst rush offense in the NFL with Kalen Ballage running the football. Ballage is atrocious. He ranks dead last among all RBs in DVOA and is averaging 1.9 yards per carry on the season.
- As noted here last week when I bet the Bills, the Dolphins offense was already a mess prior to their game two weeks ago against Indy but when they lost starting WR Preston Williams and RBs Mark Walton and Kenyan Drake, their offense becomes JV team. They have put up a measly 3.7 and 4.7 yards per play the last two games without those guys.
- This game has Browns 31-13 written all over it.
Broncos +4 at Buffalo (Current Line: +3.5 -110 5Dimes
- This was the first point spread that jumped out at me on Monday morning. Buffalo has faced the easiest schedule in the NFL so far this season and has zero good wins outside of beating the Titans when Tennessee missed four field goals.
- Denver is the best bad team in the NFL this season. Their defense has been excellent all year and ranks sixth-best against the run and 15th against the pass. Their defense ranks ninth overall in DVOA ratings. The good news is this Denver team continues to play very hard and I expect the same in Buffalo.
- The Broncos are 3-7 record is totally deceiving as they have a minus-25-point differential and have lost five games by one score. They have lost four games by four points or less. In fact, Football Outsiders has Denver as the 18th ranked team and Buffalo 25th. These teams are not even, Denver is better. Getting this line over 3 is great value.
- The Broncos’ best weapon is their run game and bring in the 10th best rush offense in the NFL. With Philip Lindsay gaining traction as the lead RB, I expect him to have a really good day against the 27th ranked rush defense in Buffalo.
Saints -9.5 vs Carolina (Current Line: -10 -110 5Dimes)
- I would take the Saints here at 10 or below.
- I think we are starting to see the NFL catch up to Kyle Allen and this offense. After an excellent beginning to his career with 7 TDs and 0 INT through the first four starts, he has crashed back to earth. He has thrown 9 INTs in the last four games with only three TD passes.
- Now Allen has to go into New Orleans and perform against the eighth-best defense in the NFL. The Saints will get pressure on Allen with a defense that has generated the fifth-highest percentage of pressures in the NFL. Carolina has the sixth-highest Adjusted Sack Rate in the NFL and has allowed Allen to get sacked 18 times in the last four games alone.
- New Orleans ranks eighth in pass defense and it is expected to get back Marshon Lattimore. Allen has faced two defenses that both rank in the top 11 in pass defense as well as pressure rate, just like the Saints. Against Jacksonville and San Francisco, Allen could only complete 54% of his throws with 1 TD, 4 INTs, and a very low 5 yards per attempt figure.
- The Saints should have their way on the ground against the 32nd ranked run defense of Carolina. New Orleans comes into this game first in success rate on the ground and first in Adjusted Line Yards. Carolina is 25th in Adjusted Line Yards allowed and has allowed the second-highest percentage of explosive runs in the NFL. Look for Alvin Kamara and Latavius Murray to ice this game in the second half.
Tampa +4.5 at Atlanta (Current Line: +3.5 -110 5Dimes)
- I am ok taking Tampa here at any number above 3. I make this game +3 so 3.5 to 4.5 is good value
- There is no scarier proposition than starting your Sunday backing Jameis Winston but here we are yet again.
- I know Atlanta has been hot the last two games but I prefer to think the larger sample size of the full season is more of an indication of this Falcons defense than what we’ve seen in the last two games.
- Chris Godwin has a big advantage in the slot against this poor Atlanta pass defense and Mike Evans is always a huge threat anywhere on the field. The Falcons are 26th in slot yards per game allowed.
- As bad as Jameis has been at times this season, for whatever reason, he has only thrown 3 INTs in 5 road games. He has thrown for over 300 yards in three of his last four road games.
- Atlanta will be able to throw the ball against this bad Tampa secondary, but the Falcons still are 24th in pressure rate allowed and the Bucs are getting healthier along the defensive line with the return of Carl Nassib.
- The Bucs are much better than their 3-7 indicates and have lost three road games all by 7 points or less.
Titans -3 vs Jacksonville (Current Line: -3.5 -110 5Dimes)
- I am ok here with taking this at 3.5. I think the true line is 4.5 and the improvement from Tennessee’s offense of late isn’t incorporated in this line.
- The Titans offense has done a 180 since Ryan Tannehill has taken over at QB.
- From Weeks 1-6, Tennessee’s offense produced a success rate of 39% that ranked 29th in the NFL. From Weeks 7-11, when Tannehill took over, the Titans have produced a 49% success rate, ranking 11th best. The pass offense went from 31st to 11th.
- To go along with an improved pass offense, the Titans will have a big advantage on the ground. Derrick Henry gets to face the 30th ranked run defense in the Jaguars.
- Jacksonville was just gashed on the ground by the Colts who ran for 264 yards on 36 attempts and a staggering 7.3 YPC. They rank dead last in allowing opponents to rush for a YPC that’s 20% above their opponent’s average expectation. The Jaguars have faced a schedule of opponents who rank sixth-best by YPC.
- Jacksonville has been burned by explosive runs, allowing the sixth-highest percentage in the NFL and they rank dead last in open field yards allowed. The explosive runs are a problem against Henry who ranks third in the NFL with 24 runs of 10+ yards.
Other sides and totals I have personally wagered on and I still like at the current number:
- Eagles -1 -110
- Rams +3.5 -130