- The Chargers had the NFL’s #5 highest run rate on early downs in the first three quarters last week.
- The Titans ranked #2 in EPA/att allowed and allowed just 2.6 YPC to Saints RBs. They ranked #5 in success rate and #4 in yards before contact per rush.
Warren Sharp’s game previews are unlike anything you’ll find anywhere in the industry, and this year he will be sharing his write-ups along with betting picks on Sharp Football Analysis.
Warren’s betting recommendations have seen sustained success, exceeding 58% wins across over 2,700 betting recommendations in his 17 years.
He has won 62.3% of NFL totals releases from 2006 through 2022 from his model, including exceeding a 70% win rate each of the last three seasons:
- 37-15 record (71%) in 2022
- 23-5 (82%) in 2021
- 28-9 (76%) in 2020
Tennessee Titans vs. Los Angeles Chargers Week 2 Betting Preview:
Justin Herbert averaged only 6.9 air yards per attempt on early downs last week, which was #20 last week.
He threw 52% of pass attempts 1-9 yards downfield (#5 most) and threw 24% of passes 10+ yards (#5 least).
This was despite the fact that he was pressured on only 33% of dropbacks (NFL average).
He had only 2 of 36 dropbacks last 3.5 seconds or longer.
And that was against a Dolphins defense that only slightly above average in pressure rate in 2022 and was, once again, only slightly above average in pressure rate in Week 1 (16th at 37.5%).
Herbert was throwing it short and quick, much like he had been doing in 2022 under Joe Lombardi.
Against the Dolphins last week, Herbert had substantially more success vs zone than man:
- vs man: -0.26 EPA/att, 30% success, 1.9 YPA
- vs zone: +0.24 EPA/att, 55% success, 8.5 YPA
The Dolphins switched everything under Vic Fangio and went way more zone heavy this season. Last year, they were the NFL’s #2 most man-heavy team on early downs in the first three quarters (29% man). In Week 1, they were the #8 most zone-heavy team (82% zone).
I don’t know that the Dolphins are comfortable with their zone coverage scheme yet, and Herbert took advantage.
That is far less likely to happen vs the Titans.
Tennessee is likewise a zone-heavy offense. But they were solid vs the Saints and Derek Carr when playing zone:
- Derek Carr vs man: +0.57 EPA/att, 60% success, 11.9 YPA, 1:0 TD:INT (10 dropbacks)
- Derek Carr vs zone: -0.01 EPA/att, 50% success, 9.0 YPA, 0:1 TD:INT (26 dropbacks)
Herbert will see a lot of zones and I don’t feel he’ll have nearly the same success he did vs the Dolphins.
And if Herbert doesn’t have success vs man, similar to week 1, I don’t think he’s going to have an elite day passing the ball vs the Titans.
The other factor here is the target depth.
Derek Carr threw 40% of his passes 10+ yards downfield, #5 most.
And as mentioned above, Herbert threw 10+ yards #5 least often.
Additionally, look at Carr’s passing success by target depth vs the Titans:
- within 10 air yards: -0.06 EPA/att, 6.3 YPA
- 10+ air yards: +0.72 EPA/att, 13.8 YPA
Carr excelled when pushing the ball downfield. The underneath stuff less than 10 yards was mediocre.
If Herbert isn’t elite vs zone and isn’t pushing the ball down the field, he’s not putting up dynamite numbers vs the Titans defense.
But this is more than just the passing attack.
That’s because the Chargers had the NFL’s #5 highest run rate on early downs in the first three quarters last week.
In 2022, the Chargers were the #4 highest pass-rate team (63%).
In Week 1, they were the #5 highest run-rate team (pass rate of only 47%).
They enjoyed the success from the run vs the Dolphins for certain.
The Chargers RBs gained 2.8 yards BEFORE contact per rush, #1 most. They also gained 3.7 yards AFTER contact per rush, which was #4 most.
Overall, the Chargers RBs vs this Dolphins run defense ranked:
- #1 in EPA/rush (+0.35)
- #1 in success rate (66%)
- #1 in YPC (6.5)
- #1 in total rushing yards (208)
- #1 in % of runs to gain 3+ yards before contact (44%)
Another wild stat: 43% of the Chargers’ rushing attempts resulted in a first down or touchdown, the highest rate in the league.
Now they’re going up against the Titans rush defense.
