It’s that time of year to start looking at player prop bets for the upcoming 2023 NFL season and which which quarterback prop bet UNDERS are likely to hit on UnderDog and PrizePicks.
Matthew Stafford Passing Yards Prop:
Current Passing Yards Over/Under for Matthew Stafford:
- 3700.5 yards on PrizePicks
- 3850.5 yards on Underdog
Why You Should Bet the Under:
- Stafford coming off an injury
- Depleted supporting cast for the Rams
#1 Reason to bet the Under:
Matthew Stafford is expected to open the season at full strength after missing eight games last year with a spinal contusion. However, the injury was serious enough to spark questions about a potential retirement.
Although he’s back to full strength, there is the possibility of reinjuring his neck, which would likely cause him to miss significant time again.
At the age of 35, betting on Stafford staying at full strength would be risky.
#2 Reason to bet the Under:
We also have to consider the supporting cast around Stafford, as the Rams are entering rebuilding mode.
Cooper Kupp returns, but there’s not much around him at receiver, which could diminish the effectiveness of the Rams’ passing attack.
More concerning, however, is the offensive line.
Per TruMedia, Joe Notebloom allowed a 10% pressure rate last year, ranking 34th out of 35 qualified left tackles. Despite that uninspiring performance, the Rams neglected to address the offensive line in a meaningful way this offseason.
Stafford was sacked or hit on 18.7% of his dropbacks last year, the league’s fifth highest rate per TruMedia 一 a concerning trend of a quarterback at his age with a recent spinal injury.
» Bet Stafford's Under for passing yards on Underdog
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- Visit the Underdog Fantasy site HERE
- Click Sign Up and register a NEW account using this Promo Code during registration: SHARPKIT
- Deposit at least $10 into your account (FYI, Underdog will match your first deposit up to $100)
- After completing these steps, you will receive an email from Underdog with a unique Coupon Code to use for the Sharp Football Draft Kit
- Once you have the coupon code, visit our Draft Kit Purchase Page and use it to get the kit for $1!
Lamar Jackson Passing Yards Prop:
Current Passing Yards Over/Under for Lamar Jackson:
- 3500.5 on Underdog
- 3525.5 on PrizePicks
Why You Should Bet the Under:
- The over would set a career high
- Significant injury history
#1 Reason to bet the Under:
It would certainly be fun if the Ravens developed an exciting passing attack and turned Lamar Jackson loose under new offensive coordinator Todd Monken. But as a general rule, don’t bet on established starters to shatter their career highs.
Jackson has topped 3,000 passing yards only once when he threw for 3,127 during his MVP season of 2019.
To be fair, there’s reason to hope Jackson will be supported by an improved receiving corps. However, we don’t know what Odell Beckham can offer after missing the 2022 season, and rookie Zay Flowers is also an unknown.
#2 Reason to bet the Under:
Unfortunately, Jackson’s injury history is also a significant factor here. Jackson has missed five games in each of the last two seasons.
Given Jackson’s style of play, his injury history is probably more predictive of future injuries than for most quarterbacks, as he’s going to end up in harm’s way at a higher rate.
As a mobile quarterback with recent ankle and knee injuries, we should have doubts about his ability to stay on the field for a full 17 games.
» Bet Lamar's Under for passing yards on Underdog
Ryan Tannehill Passing Yards Prop:
Current Passing Yards Over/Under for Ryan Tannehill:
- 3075.5 on PrizePicks
- 3250.5 on Underdog
Why You Should Bet the Under:
- Will Levis and Malik Willis
- Poor supporting cast
#1 Reason to bet the Under:
The only way Ryan Tannehill remains the Titans starter throughout the 2023 season is if the team dramatically outplays expectations.
Rookie Will Levis will see the field at some point because Tennessee needs to get a better idea of what they have behind Tannehill.
And even if Levis were to get injured or perform poorly, Tennessee might want another look at last year’s third-round pick Malik Willis.
Any team entering a rebuilding phase is going to give its young quarterbacks a chance. So let’s say, on the high end of the spectrum, Tannehill plays 13 games (leaving four games for Levis/Willis).
For Tannehill to hit the over in 13 games, he would need to average 242.3 yards per game. Tannehill’s peak in Tennessee was 238.7 in 2020.
#2 Reason to bet the Under:
Tannehill could force Tennessee to keep him on the field if the team is in the playoff hunt, but that seems unlikely given the supporting cast, especially the offensive line.
In our preseason unit rankings, we placed Tennessee’s offensive line dead last.
29-year-old Derrick Henry is probably past the stage of his career where he can maintain elite production behind a poor offensive line, and if the run game isn’t at peak performance, there’s little reason to believe Tannehill can revive the passing attack.
» Bet Tannehill's Under for passing yards on Underdog
Sign up with Underdog Fantasy and get a $100 deposit match, plus our Sharp Football Fantasy Draft Kit for $1:
- Visit the Underdog Fantasy site HERE
- Click Sign Up and register a NEW account using this Promo Code during registration: SHARPKIT
- Deposit at least $10 into your account (FYI, Underdog will match your first deposit up to $100)
- After completing these steps, you will receive an email from Underdog with a unique Coupon Code to use for the Sharp Football Draft Kit
- Once you have the coupon code, visit our Draft Kit Purchase Page and use it to get the kit for $1!
