The best bets went 1-2 last week with an easy cover with the Falcons +3.5 but lost as the Lions went out with a whimper on Thanksgiving and I got “Lynn’d” again by the worst in-game coach in the NFL. Anthony Lynn might be the worst in-game strategist I have personally seen in the NFL. I have been tweeting about his blunders it feels like every week since he became the Chargers head coach in 2017. 

The Chargers make no in-game adjustments and he fails to understand basic clock and situational management on an every-game basis. In fact, since 2017, the Chargers rank 30th in the NFL in second half scoring margin as compared to their first half of games. This has led to an incredible incompetence in winning close games as the Chargers are now 4-16 straight up in one score games the last two seasons. My numbers favor LA by -3 this week over the Patriots but you would need to stick a gun to my head to ever bet them over a Bill Belichick-coached team.

Instead of focusing on one main betting topic this week, I decided to go ahead and briefly post some quick-hitting nuggets:

  • Road underdogs are now 61-48 ats (56%) with 39 of the 61 covers as outright winners.
  • A strong subset of these road underdogs has emerged as the most profitable to date. Road underdogs of six or less in games with low totals (less than 45 points) are now an astonishing 13-0 ats with seven outright winners. This is not to be used as a predictive measure but just interesting considering the lack of any home-field advantage and the potential negative correlation with closely matched teams in a low scoring environment. The Lions +3 (44.5 point total) are the only side that fits this narrative this week for what it’s worth.
  • Road favorites of over seven points are 4-10 ats but 13 of those 14 teams won outright this season. In the last three seasons, these big road favorites are now 40-6 straight up (87%) and 24-22 ats. This compares to home favorites of over seven only going 53-66 ats (45%) the last three seasons and 97-25 (79%) straight up. When considering survivor pool opportunities or even looking at big money line favorites, tilting towards the road favorites might end up being a smarter bet.
  • The Browns are 8-3 but are doing so with an astonishing -21 point differential. A team with this differential would typically be expected to be 5-6 right now. It has definitely helped that the Browns have faced the fourth-easiest schedule to date based on DVOA metrics. Not surprising, but the Browns are currently the league’s most overachieving team based on the point differential with the Steelers (2.5 wins over expected) right behind them. The Jaguars (-2.3 wins against expected) and Bengals (-2 wins over expected) are the teams that have underachieved the most.

Week 13 Best Bets

Cleveland Browns vs Tennessee Titans over 54

It sounds counterintuitive to think that two run-heavy teams would go over such a big number but there are a number of reasons to love this over. First off, this profiles very similarly to the Titans/Vikings matchup early this season which ended up with a 31-30 final score. Baker Mayfield relishes playing against defenses that don’t get pressure and his splits show this. He has averaged 75 yards more per game and two sacks less against defenses that rank outside of the top 12 in pressure rate. Well the Titans rank 31st in pressure rate and those numbers include having Jadaveon Clowney in the lineup and he is out right now.

If we dig into the numbers a bit more, the Titans’ poor pass rush might even be understated as they’ve only faced one offense that ranks in the top 12 in pressures allowed (Pittsburgh). They have faced six offenses that rank in the bottom 10 in pressure rate allowed. This pass rush is awful and to add fuel to that fire, their best defensive lineman Jeffery Simmons popped up on the injury report this week and didn’t practice on Wednesday.

Mayfield should find success against the 27th ranked DVOA pass defense and this poor pass rush. In addition, the Browns have by far the highest percentage of explosive runs in the NFL while the Titans have allowed the sixth-highest number on defense. When the Titans have the ball, Derrick Henry will have success against 31st ranked run defense based on success rate. What makes this run defense look even worse is that the Browns have only faced two run offenses that rank in the top 10 in success rate (Dallas and Washington) and in those games the Browns allowed a 63% success rate and 5 yards per carry.

At the same time, the Browns secondary is currently a mess. Star CB Denzel Ward is out and he grades out as a top 10 coverage CB by PFF and is top 35 in tackling efficiency. His replacement who will be covering A.J. Brown will be slot CB Kevin Johnson who ranks 109th in tackling. Brown is a YAC monster and ranks #2 in YAC per reception in the NFL.

Indianapolis Colts -3.5 vs Houston Texans

I personally got this line at -2.5 (-125) on Monday and the line has subsequently moved in favor of Indianapolis. I like this up to -4 for the Colts and the recent injury news on both sides is a huge factor. Not only is Will Fuller out for the Texans (top 10 in receiving touchdowns, 18th in air yard target share, & 14th in yards per route run) but they recently dropped Kenny Stills and have Randall Cobb out due to injury.

Watson’s career passing splits without Fuller are notorious. As our own Rich Hribar pointed out in his fantasy football worksheet, in 16 starts without Fuller on the field, Watson has averaged 53.1 fewer passing yards per game and 1.4 fewer yards per pass attempt as opposed to when Fuller is out there. 

The Indy defense will be much healthier for this game than they were last week when they were gashed by Derrick Henry and the Titans. The Colts were missing multiple key front-seven players including DeForest Buckner, Denico Autry, and Bobby Okereke. Autry has already been activated off the Covid-19 list and Buckner should be eligible in time for Sunday’s game as well. Even without those guys, it’s difficult to imagine the Texans being able to take advantage with their anemic running attack. 

Defensively, the Texans have struggled all season and will be without Bradley Roby, their only CB who ranks in the top 98 in PFF’s pass coverage grade among 119 qualifying CBs. He has played very well and has graded out as the 19th-best CB in the NFL. This loss is huge for a pass defense that ranks 22nd in DVOA.

Philip Rivers should be able to take advantage of that secondary without Roby as well as targeting his TEs and RBs out of the backfield which he loves to do (fifth-most in the NFL). The Texans rank 29th in both success rate and yards per attempt allowed to TEs. 

Atlanta Falcons vs New Orleans Saints under 46

This really comes down to the fact that these divisional rivals are both playing stellar defense and the Saints have grinded games to a halt with Taysom Hill at QB. In two games with Hill under center, including a Week 11 showdown with the Falcons, the Saints and their opponents have only run a combined 113 plays per game. This compares to the league average of 128 plays per game. Even considering last week’s game against Denver was unique due to the Broncos not having a QB, the Saints and Falcons only ran 121 plays in their meeting two weeks ago.

Hill only threw for 78 yards last week and a poor 4.9 yards per attempt. The Falcons come in with, surprisingly, the league’s No. 2 ranked defense in the last five weeks based on success rate and will not be surprised by what they see from Hill this time around. The Saints have been tremendous on defense the last five weeks as well, ranking No. 1 in the NFL during this time. They rank third in the NFL in pressure rate and dominated the Falcons OL last time around, pressuring Matt Ryan on 22 of 45 total dropbacks and sacking him 8 times. 

Best Bets Record YTD: 13-15-3 (46%)