Week 7 Thursday Night Football Betting Guide: Chiefs At Broncos

KC Offense vs Denver Defense:

 

• In the last three weeks, Patrick Mahomes has completed only 57%, 56%, and 54% of his passes. This is after starting the season completing 75%, 68%, and 73%.
• He averaged 10.5 yards per attempt in the first three games as compared to 7.9 in his last three. Something is off with Mahomes right now.
• The biggest issue on offense has been the OL struggles of late. Some of that is due to injury but the OL has been a weakness in the last three games. After four straight solid pass protection grades of 74+ by PFF, the Chiefs OL has posted two poor games with 48 and 68 grades
• LT Cam Erving has been atrocious, taking over for Eric Fisher who got hurt in Week 2. Erving has allowed 11 pressures in the last 2 games alone and has the third-worst grade from PFF among all tackles. That is not a good sign ahead of a night game at Mile High against Von Miller.
• One way to potentially slow down this pass rush is to start running the ball a little bit more. KC has run the ball the least in the NFL in one-score game situations at 31% and is even lower the last two games at 24%. Last week KC only ran the ball nine times with RBs for 50 yards. Two weeks ago, it was nine times for 23 yards against Indianapolis.
• I am the polar opposite of establish the run guy but, with a poor OL in a loud environment and against a good pass rush, I would think Andy Reid will incorporate more runs and misdirections.
• One area in the pass game that I expect KC to target is Travis Kelce a lot. In one-score situations, Denver has allowed the third-highest target share to TEs at 27%. Kelce in his career has dominated the Broncos and in his last 5 games against Denver he has averaged 11.8 targets, 7.8 receptions, and 110 yards. Kelce has scored a TD in four straight games.
• It will be interesting to see how Tyreek Hill performs off his first game back from injury on a short week. Undoubtedly, Chris Harris will be shadowing Hill so other Chiefs WRs outside of Kelce will have to step up. Harris has exclusively shadowed Davante Adams and Allen Robinson this season and held those two to a combined 4 receptions for 49 yards

 

Denver Offense vs KC Defense:

• How offenses the last two weeks in the Colts and Texans really attacked the Chiefs has been on the ground, short throws, and essentially playing keep away. Deshaun Watson attempted 76% of his pass attempts under 10 yards last week whereas in the prior three games that number was closer to 63%. This, along with a running game where they rushed 41 times for 192 yards and an excellent success rate of 56%, really kept Mahomes and the Chiefs off the field. Jacoby Brissett attempted 80% of his throws in Week 5 against KC under 10 yards, completing 85% of those throws. The Colts ran the ball 45 times for 180 yards.
• How the Texans and Colts attacked their games offensively against the Chiefs is how I expect Denver to attack as well. And this plays perfectly into the hands of Joe Flacco, as he is the king of the check down. Flacco has completed 82% of his attempts under 10 yards this season and has the seventh-lowest percentage of attempts over 20 yards.
• Who benefits from the short passing game? Courtland Sutton has received 38 of his 47 total targets on short passes. Historically, Emmanuel Sanders lives underneath but he has struggled the last two games with only 2 receptions for 9 yards combined. He only played 40% of offensive snaps last week, losing snaps to Desean Hamilton.
• Philip Lindsay and Royce Freeman should have a field day against the worst run defense in the NFL.
• Lindsay killed the Chiefs last year in two games, rushing 30 times for 164 yards and a 5.5 yards per carry.
• Freeman only played one game against the Chiefs last year and ran for 67 yards on 8 carries.

ATS Side I like tonight: Denver +3 (-110 5dimes):

I have gone 6-0 ats on TNF this season but this is my least confident Thursday game of the season. I did make a small play on Denver +3 but it’s not a strong play. I regrettably missed the better numbers above 3. I hate going against a KC team off back-to-back losses, but the Chiefs have issues right now that I think the Broncos can take advantage of. 

As mentioned above, there is a monster mismatch with Cam Erving having to block Von Miller. The mismatch gets exasperated on the road at night in a loud environment where Miller will get good jumps. Laying points with a mediocre to bad OL against a good pass rush on the road is always a big risk. I do think the Chiefs will have success with Kelce tonight but Mahomes will be harassed.

On the other side of the ball, all of the things that Indy and Houston did on offense the last two games is exactly where Flacco and this offense excels. They are a methodical offense that gets to third down a lot, with the eighth-most third downs per play attempts this season. Expect tons of short passes and runs to Lindsay and Freeman. The Chiefs just can’t stop those plays right now. 

The last three games in Denver have been decided by 4, 3, and 3 points so I fully expect another tight game.