The Worksheet, a fantasy football overview by Rich Hribar, breaking down everything you need to know for the Week 14 San Francisco 49ers at Cincinnati Bengals Sunday afternoon game.
| San Francisco | Rank | @ | Cincinnati | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Spread | -1 | ||
| 23.3 | Implied Total | 24.3 | ||
| 25.3 | 13 | Points/Gm | 27.6 | 7 |
| 23.2 | 20 | Points All./Gm | 22.3 | 12 |
| 61.3 | 28 | Plays/Gm | 62.2 | 21 |
| 60.4 | 6 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 62.8 | 14 |
| 6 | 6 | Off. Yards/Play | 5.7 | 13 |
| 5.3 | 10 | Def. Yards/Play | 5.6 | 20 |
| 48.30% | 3 | Rush% | 43.70% | 12 |
| 51.70% | 30 | Pass% | 56.30% | 21 |
| 43.03% | 21 | Opp. Rush % | 35.81% | 3 |
| 56.97% | 12 | Opp. Pass % | 64.19% | 30 |
- The 49ers lead the league in scoring on 28.4% of their red zone plays.
- The Bengals are second at 28.4%.
- Ja'Marr Chase had caught 10-of-17 targets (58.8%) of throws 15-plus yards downfield Weeks 1-7 for 384 yards and four touchdowns.
- Since then, Chase has caught 1-of-9 targets for 16 yards.
- Tee Higgins has caught 9-of-14 of those targets for 239 yards and two touchdowns over that span after catching 0-of-5 targets on those throws through seven weeks.
- Over their past three games, just 21.4% of the yardage allowed by the Bengals has come via rushing, the lowest rate in the league.
Trust = spike production for that player
Quarterback
Joe Burrow: Burrow’s small funk stayed in play on Sunday as he completed 24-of-40 passes for 300 yards and a touchdown. Back-to-back games with a rushing touchdown have helped him hang onto fringe QB1 status, but Burrow has now averaged 9.7 passing points per game over the past four games after 18.8 passing points per game over his opening eight games played. Over that stretch, Burrow has three touchdown passes to five interceptions. Now, Burrow is dealing with an injury to the pinky on his throwing hand, something he will play through.
Burrow will look to get going at home against a 49ers defense that is 28th in completion rate (68.5%) and 19th in touchdown rate (4.5%) allowed to opposing passers, but ninth in yards allowed per attempt (6.9 Y/A), and ninth in passing points allowed per game (13.7). San Francisco has allowed only two passers to finish inside of the top-10 in Justin Fields and Jared Goff, but seven other quarterbacks to finish QB10-QB15, the area Burrow has been living over the past month.
Jimmy Garoppolo: Garoppolo has been a solid fantasy option, finishing lower than QB16 in just one of his past six games. Garoppolo has had plenty of in-game hiccups that question his overall ceiling, but he has come out averaging 9.3 yards per pass attempt over that span with 8.0 Y/A or more in all six games. He has just two games as a QB1 over that stretch, but the floor has been useful in 2QB formats.
This week, he will draw a Bengals defense that is 24th in completion rate (67.2%) and 19th in yards allowed per attempt (7.2 Y/A) but is sixth in touchdown rate (3.8%) allowed to opposing passers. The Bengals do give up their share of big plays, ranking 23rd in explosive passing play rate (15.5%) per completion to keep the yards per pass attempt high for Garoppolo, but having zero games with more than two touchdown passes keep the ceiling in check as a floor-based QB2.
Running Back
Joe Mixon: Mixon ran into a tough road on Sunday, rushing 19 times for 54 yards (2.8 YPC) while losing a fumble, but he did manage to find the end zone for the ninth straight game to salvage what he could.
The most disappointing part was zero receptions, something we have seen come and go for Mixon all season. Mixon now has games of 5, 0, 4, 5, 0, 4, and 0 receptions over his past seven games. When Mixon’s touchdown streak inevitably comes to an end, we are going to need those receptions in place to insulate his floor.
That said, the volume remains high. Even with the uneven reception dispersal, Mixon is sixth among all running backs with 21.1 touches per game. The 49ers have been solid up front, allowing 3.9 yards per carry to backs (eighth), but are 24th in rushing points allowed per game (14.3) to backfields as they have allowed 12 rushing touchdowns (28th) to the position. Mixon is a volume-based RB1.
49ers RBs: The 49ers are kicking off the week with a battered backfield. Elijah Mitchell appeared to suffer a head injury on Sunday but returned to the game. On Monday, he reported symptoms and was placed in concussion protocol. We will have to monitor his status as Mitchell has seen 27, 32, and 25 touches over his past three games and had finally pushed into playing passing snaps.
Jeff Wilson had his knee “flare-up” per Kyle Shanahan and will not practice early in the week. Trey Sermon is on injured reserve. Trenton Cannon exited Sunday after a scary collision on the opening kickoff. That leaves JaMycal Hasty as the healthiest San Francisco running back at the start of the week.
After Mitchell missed practice all week, Wilson and Hasty are expected to split time on Sunday. It is concerning for Wilson that he has had so many issues with the same knee that shelved him nearly the entire season, making him a fragile RB3/FLEX and favoring Hasty, but there is nothing concrete here to latch onto for either as more than a FLEX swing.
The Bengals are 14th in rushing points allowed per game (11.9) and 29th in receiving points allowed per game (13.9) to opposing backfields.
Wide Receiver
Ja’Marr Chase: Chase is running into his first taste of variance at the NFL level. He is fighting through extra defensive attention and some self-inflicted plays such as last week’s downfield drop turned interception, but this dip also shows how dependent Chase was on those downfield targets over the front half of the season, which is always a tough way to solely live for fantasy.
The good news is that the Bengals are not going to go away from Chase. He is second among all NFL wide receivers in routes run per dropback (96.1%) and has 20% or more of the Cincinnati targets in 10-of-12 games this season. The emergence of Tee Higgins can only help Chase as well since the ball is still finding him.
The 49ers are 21st in the league in completion rate allowed on throws 15 yards or further (43.8%) but have only allowed two touchdowns (tied for second) on those targets. Overall, to wideouts, they are middle of the road, allowing 8.1 yards per target (18th) and a 4.7% touchdown rate (16th) on targets to the position. Chase still has the usage of a fantasy WR2 but has become a boom-or-bust option until he shakes the dependency of downfield targets to carry his fantasy lines.
Tee Higgins: While variance has swung down for Chase, it was swung in the other direction for Higgins. Higgins has excelled the past two weeks and peppered with 33.3% and 36.8% of the team targets, turning in games of 6-114-1 and 9-138-1. Higgins has now been a top-25 scorer in five of his past six games and a top-30 scoring wideout in seven of his 10 games this year. Higgins has become the foxhole target for Burrow as he leads the team with 20 targets on third downs since returning to the lineup in Week 5 while also leading the team with 19 targets when opponents send five or more pass rushers.
Higgins will surely not sustain a target share over 30% on this roster but has shown to be a high floor WR2 with upside over the course of the season.
Deebo Samuel: Samuel missed Week 13 with a groin injury, but the 49ers are “hopeful” he can play on Sunday. This is another situation we will monitor closely throughout the week, but Samuel was one of the most consistent fantasy players of the year prior to injury. Samuel has been a WR3 or better in all but one game played this season while ranking third among all receivers in WR1 rate (54.6%) of games played.
What will be interesting is to see if the groin injury has any hindrance on Samuel’s usage. Samuel has just two catches for 27 yards over his past two games played but had 14 carries out of the backfield for 145 yards with three touchdowns in those games. If Samuel can play, there will be added volatility and risk of reinjury, but an option you would plug back in as a top fantasy option.
Brandon Aiyuk: Aiyuk caught 3-of-6 targets for 55 yards on Sunday. Aiyuk still sustained a high route rate (96.8%) and received 20% or more of the team targets for the sixth straight game, he just took a seat to the Kittle Show like the rest of us.
The Bengals are 28th in catch rate (67.9%) and 22nd in yards allowed per target (8.5 yards) but have stayed respectable in overall points allowed to wideouts due to a 4.2% touchdown rate (seventh). Aiyuk has worked his way back to a fantasy WR3 option.
Tyler Boyd: Boyd has found the end zone in just two games this season, but he has started to ping-pong back and forth as a WR3 or unable over the past five weeks as the WR14, WR85, WR30, WR84, and WR24 in those weeks. Boyd has had more than five targets in back-to-back games with all three Cincy wideouts active just once this season. The 49ers have been more vulnerable to interior receivers (17th in points allowed to slot receivers) to give Boyd some room as a floor-based WR4/FLEX in PPR formats.
Tight End
George Kittle (TRUST): A week after just being targeted just twice, the 49ers targeted Kittle a season-high 12 times and he rewarded them by catching nine of those looks for 181 yards and a pair of touchdowns, the first multi-touchdown game of his career. Kittle has been finding the end zone since returning to the lineup, scoring in four of his past five games. Despite all of his missed time this year, he has already matched his career-high in touchdowns for a season.
Kittle will look to follow up that strong performance against a Cincinnati defense that is 20th in touchdown rate allowed to opposing tight ends (6.2%) while allowing a TE1 in two of their past three games.
More Week 14 Fantasy breakdowns from The Worksheet:
PIT at MIN | NO at NYJ | ATL at CAR | BAL at CLE | SF at CIN | DAL at WFT | LVR at KC | JAX at TEN | SEA at HOU | DET at DEN | NYG at LAC | BUF at TB | CHI at GB | LAR at ARI