The Worksheet, a comprehensive fantasy football preview by Rich Hribar, breaks down everything you need to know about the Week 10 matchup between the Buccaneers and 49ers.
Find a breakdown of every Week 10 NFL game in our Worksheet Hub.
| San Francisco | Rank | @ | Tampa Bay | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -6.5 | Spread | 6.5 | ||
| 27.25 | Implied Total | 20.75 | ||
| 26.3 | 6 | Points/Gm | 28.8 | 5 |
| 22.8 | 16 | Points All./Gm | 27 | 28 |
| 63.3 | 11 | Plays/Gm | 62.6 | 17 |
| 59.6 | 9 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 67 | 31 |
| 6.5 | 2 | Off. Yards/Play | 6 | 6 |
| 5.3 | 12 | Def. Yards/Play | 5.8 | 27 |
| 49.01% | 7 | Rush% | 40.14% | 26 |
| 50.99% | 26 | Pass% | 59.86% | 7 |
| 41.30% | 9 | Opp. Rush % | 39.47% | 6 |
| 58.70% | 24 | Opp. Pass % | 60.53% | 27 |
- The Buccaneers are 4-1 when they score first but are 0-4 when the opponent scores first.
- Tampa Bay games average 776.4 combined yards per game, 2nd most in the NFL.
- San Francisco games average 727.1 combined yards per game, 3rd most in the NFL.
- Tampa Bay has converted 70.6% (24 of 34) of its red zone possessions into touchdowns, second in the NFL.
- San Francisco has converted 48.6% (17-of-35) of their red zone drives into touchdowns, 28th in the league.
- Tampa Bay allows 2.44 points per drive, 29th in the league.
- The 49ers allow 1.60 points per drive over the opening three quarters (4th in the NFL) compared to 3.55 points per drive in the fourth quarter (30th).
Trust = spike production for that player
Quarterback
Brock Purdy (TRUST): Purdy exits the bye week after three straight QB1 scoring weeks.
Purdy's efficiency has dipped this season, but those previous rates were always going to be hard to sustain at those extreme levels.
Given all of the moving parts that San Francisco has had on offense due to injuries, Purdy has played at a high level.
He is still third in the NFL in yards per pass attempt (8.7 Y/A) and is fourth in passing yards per game (262.6) despite all of Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, and George Kittle missing time while Christian McCaffrey has yet to play a snap.
His 4.1% touchdown rate (7% in 2024) is down, but there is room for that to rise.
Purdy is second in the NFL in dropbacks in the red zone (48), but his 18.6% red zone touchdown rate is 27th.
Purdy is tied for fifth in the league in pass attempts thrown into the end zone (24) but is 25th in touchdown rate on those throws (29.2%).
What has boosted Purdy a bit is that he is rushing more this season.
He already has a career-high 210 yards on the ground with 3 rushing scores.
After 39 attempts all of 2024, Purdy has rushed 42 times already this season.
That may dip with the potential return of McCaffrey, but Purdy is creating more this season out of the structure.
The Buccaneers are 29th in rushing yards allowed per game to quarterbacks (29.3).
Overall, this is a great matchup coming out of the bye.
Tampa Bay is 30th in passing points allowed per game (17.8).
The Bucs have allowed a QB1 scorer in six of their past seven games with the one exception over that span being Spencer Rattler in his first NFL start.
Over their past five games, they have allowed four quarterbacks to finish as top-three scorers including Kirk Cousins (twice) and Patrick Mahomes on Monday night.
They have allowed three or more passing touchdowns in four of those five games, with Rattler again being the exception.
Baker Mayfield: Mayfield has seen a dip in efficiency, losing his top wideouts to Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, but he has still delivered a strong floor in the past two weeks.
Mayfield has thrown for 6.6 and 6.5 yards per pass attempt the past two weeks but still has ended those weeks as QB10 (22.3 points) and QB13 (18 points).
The Bucs have still found a way to score 26 and 24 points in the past two weeks.
They have scored 24 or more points in six straight games.
Mayfield has thrown multiple touchdowns in all of those games.
He is also running more this season.
With another 20 yards rushing on Monday night, Mayfield has already set a career-high with 189 yards on the ground.
I would still prefer to use Mayfield as a floor-based QB2 over him being a locked-in QB1 since at some he will not throw multiple passing touchdowns, but he has had such a strong floor to this point that I would not run away from him, either.
San Francisco has been strong in limiting passers, ranking seventh in passing points allowed per attempt (0.350) and eighth in passing points allowed per game (11.3).
Running Back
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More Week 10 Fantasy Breakdowns From The Worksheet:
| Matchup | Time |
|---|---|
| Bengals @ Ravens -- FREE | Thursday Night Football |
| Giants @ Panthers | Sunday -- 9:30 a.m. ET |
| Patriots @ Bears | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Bills @ Colts | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Broncos @ Chiefs | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Falcons @ Saints | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| 49ers @ Bucs | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Steelers @ Commanders | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Vikings @ Jaguars | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Titans @ Chargers | Sunday -- 4:05 p.m. ET |
| Eagles @ Cowboys | Sunday -- 4:25 p.m. ET |
| Jets @ Cardinals | Sunday -- 4:25 p.m. ET |
| Lions @ Texans | Sunday Night Football |
| Dolphins @ Rams -- FREE | Monday Night Football |
