The Worksheet, a comprehensive fantasy football preview by Rich Hribar, breaks down everything you need to know about the Week 7 matchup between the Chiefs and 49ers.
Find a breakdown of every Week 7 NFL game in our Worksheet Hub.
| Kansas City | Rank | @ | San Francisco | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | Spread | -1.5 | ||
| 22.5 | Implied Total | 24 | ||
| 23.6 | 15 | Points/Gm | 27 | 8 |
| 17 | 6 | Points All./Gm | 21.7 | 12 |
| 63.8 | 12 | Plays/Gm | 64.3 | 10 |
| 59 | 9 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 58.3 | 6 |
| 5.6 | 14 | Off. Yards/Play | 6.5 | 2 |
| 5.2 | 9 | Def. Yards/Play | 5.4 | 17 |
| 47.02% | 13 | Rush% | 48.70% | 8 |
| 52.98% | 20 | Pass% | 51.30% | 25 |
| 40.00% | 8 | Opp. Rush % | 39.71% | 7 |
| 60.00% | 25 | Opp. Pass % | 60.29% | 26 |
- Patrick Mahomes is 9-3 in his career as an underdog.
- San Francisco is averaging 5.2 plays of 20 or more yards per game, the most in the NFL.
- The Chiefs allow 2.4 plays of 20 or more yards per game, which is 3rd in the league.
- 2.5% of the Kansas City running back runs have gained 10 or more yards, the lowest rate in the league.
- 4.7% of the running back runs against the Chiefs have gained 10 or more yards, the 2nd-lowest rate in the league.
- 48.3% of the San Francisco possessions have reached the red zone or scored prior, 3rd in the league.
- 44% of the Kansas City possessions have reached the red zone or scored prior, 4th in the league.
- 47.8% of the Kansas City scoring plays have been touchdowns, 22nd in the league.
- 45.2% of the San Francisco scoring plays have been touchdowns, 27th in the league.
- Kansas City has converted 38.9% (7-of-18) of their red zone possessions into touchdowns, 29th in the league.
- San Francisco has converted 44.4% (12-of-27) of their red zone possessions into touchdowns, 25th in the league.
Trust = spike production for that player
Quarterback
Patrick Mahomes: Mahomes has been efficient with 8.4 and 8.5 yards per pass attempt over his past two games, but he still has not been able to turn that into fantasy points.
Even with 331 yards in Week 5, Mahomes failed to throw a touchdown pass.
To open the season, he has been the QB12, QB18, QB16, QB18, and QB18, operating as a mid-range QB2.
Mahomes has only one top-10 scoring week over his past 14 regular season games.
He has only two top-6 scoring weeks since the start of last season.
Given the state of this receiving room, I would handle him as a floor-based option here.
However, if you are looking for a reason to keep pushing Mahomes out as a QB1, he did have 25.9 fantasy points when these teams played in the Super Bowl, passing for 333 yards, 2 touchdowns, and 66 rushing yards.
Mahomes has faced the 49ers four times in his career (4-0) and has thrown for multiple touchdowns in all four games.
He has had 314, 423, 286, and 333 yards passing in those games.
This San Francisco defense has been hit or miss to open the year.
They rank 14th in passing points allowed per attempt (0.385). 16th in yards allowed per pass attempt (7.1 Y/A), and have a 4.1% touchdown rate (16th).
But they have steadily generated pressure, ranking 7th (38.6%).
Brock Purdy: Purdy played a clean game last Thursday, completing 18-of-28 (64.3%) of his passes for 255 yards (9.1 Y/A) with 3 touchdowns and zero interceptions.
We talked about sticking with Purdy last week because he was bound to cash in on the red zone opportunities if they kept coming at the same rate, and he threw red zone touchdowns in Seattle.
Purdy has thrown multiple passing touchdowns in two games, and he was a QB1 scorer in both games.
Purdy added 19 rushing yards, something he has done more of this season.
Purdy has double-digit rushing yards in every game this season.
He already has 105 rushing yards after posting 108 yards on the ground last season.
This will be the most challenging assignment for Purdy to open this season, especially with the Chiefs and Steve Spagnuolo having an extra week to prepare.
Kansas City has allowed 6.7 yards per pass attempt (13th) and has allowed multiple passing touchdowns in just two games to open the year.
Like Mahomes, I would prefer to use Purdy as a higher-end QB2 here and take on a spike week if we get one from what appears to be a tougher matchup.
This is a rematch of last year’s Super Bowl.
It will be interesting to see how the Chiefs approach the rematch.
In that game, Purdy had 15.4 fantasy points.
Spags and the Chiefs blitzed Purdy on 46.3% of his dropbacks that night.
Purdy went 12-of-18 for 131 yards (7.3 Y/A) with a touchdown against the blitz.
Purdy was only 11-of-20 for 124 yards (6.2 Y/A) without a touchdown when they did not blitz.
The Chiefs have blitzed less to open this season, ranking 16th (26.2% of dropbacks).
Running Back
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Learn MoreMore Week 7 Fantasy Breakdowns From The Worksheet:
| Matchup | Time |
|---|---|
| Broncos @ Saints | Thursday Night Football |
| Patriots vs. Jaguars | Sunday -- 9:30 a.m. ET (London) |
| Seahawks @ Falcons | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Titans @ Bills | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Bengals @ Browns | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Texans @ Packers | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Dolphins @ Colts | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Lions @ Vikings | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Eagles @ Giants | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Raiders @ Rams | Sunday -- 4:05 p.m. ET |
| Panthers @ Commanders | Sunday -- 4:05 p.m. ET |
| Chiefs @ 49ers | Sunday -- 4:25 p.m. ET |
| Jets @ Steelers | Sunday Night Football |
| Ravens @ Bucs | Monday Night Football |
| Chargers @ Cardinals | Monday Night Football |