The Worksheet, a comprehensive fantasy football preview by Rich Hribar, breaks down everything you need to know about the Week 16 matchup between the Dolphins and 49ers.
Find a breakdown of every Week 16 NFL game in our Worksheet Hub.
| San Francisco | Rank | @ | Miami | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Spread | -1 | ||
| 21.75 | Implied Total | 22.75 | ||
| 22.4 | 15 | Points/Gm | 19.7 | 24 |
| 22.9 | 17 | Points All./Gm | 22.3 | 13 |
| 59.4 | 27 | Plays/Gm | 63.8 | 8 |
| 59.6 | 6 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 58.1 | 1 |
| 6.1 | 5 | Off. Yards/Play | 5.1 | 22 |
| 5 | 6 | Def. Yards/Play | 5.3 | 11 |
| 47.24% | 7 | Rush% | 41.21% | 22 |
| 52.76% | 26 | Pass% | 58.79% | 11 |
| 46.28% | 21 | Opp. Rush % | 41.45% | 12 |
| 53.72% | 12 | Opp. Pass % | 58.55% | 21 |
- San Francisco is a league-worst 1-5 against the spread on the road.
- The Dolphins and 49ers are tied for the fewest offensive touchdowns scored outside the red zone (3).
- 3.9% of the Miami offensive plays have gained 20 or more yards, the lowest rate in the league.
- 7.6% of the San Francisco plays have gained 20 or more yards, 2nd in the league.
- San Francisco has 23 more passing plays of 20-plus yards than their opponents, the most significant differential in the league.
- 23% of the passing plays against San Francisco have gained 10 or more yards, the 3rd-lowest rate in the league.
- The Dolphins have the worst EPA as a rushing offense in the league (-89.7).
- Miami has two runs of 20 or more yards over their past 10 games, 31st in the league.
- Since Week 8, games involving the 49ers average 605.6 combined yards per game, the fewest in the league.
- The 49ers have scored on 32.8% of their drives over their past six games (26th) after scoring on 49.4% prior (4th).
Trust = spike production for that player
Quarterback
Brock Purdy: Purdy had his worst game of the season Thursday night, posting season-lows with a 45.2% completion rate and 4.6 yards per pass attempt.
Heavy rain influenced the first half, but Purdy was also rough in the second half when things cleared up, completing 5-of-12 passes for 46 yards (3.8 Y/A) with an interception.
Deebo Samuel dropped a potential touchdown pass, but Purdy ended the week as QB32 (4.0 points); this is the second time he has been QB30 or lower in three weeks.
Both of those weeks did come attached to some odd conditions, if looking for excuses, and he still has been the QB5 (23.8 points) and QB6 (22.1 points) in his two games sandwiching those outings.
If Purdy is a boom-or-bust fantasy option, there are reasons to play for the upside outcome here.
Miami has played in shootouts at home since Tua Tagovailoa returned.
Those home games have featured 55, 53, 49, and 58 combined points.
In their most recent home game, they allowed Aaron Rodgers 339 passing yards and 8.7 Y/A.
In the other games over that span, they allowed 22.2 fantasy points to Kyler Murray and 18.0 fantasy points to Garnder Minshew.
Drake Maye was the only passer they slowed down over that stretch (13.5 points).
Purdy is above the weight class of those passers for fantasy.
Tua Tagovailoa: After posting four QB1 scoring outings in a row, Tua and this passing game struggled in Houston on Sunday.
He somehow was worse than Purdy last week.
He closed the week QB31 (3.8 points), throwing for a season-low 4.9 yards per pass attempt and throwing 3 interceptions.
The passing volume was still present.
Tua threw the ball 40 times, his fourth game in a row with 40 or more passes.
He still completed a high rate (72.5%), but only 50% of his passes went more than 5 yards downfield.
Tagovailoa has thrown the highest rate of passes at or behind the line of scrimmage in the league (30.7%).
Only 49.9% of his passes have gone more than 5 yards downfield, ahead of only Patrick Mahomes (49%).
Only 6.6% of his passes have been 20 or more yards downfield, the lowest rate in the league.
There is a shootout component to this game, but there is also a downside.
The 49ers have allowed the fewest passing points in the league (11.1 per game).
They got Nick Bosa back last week after getting Talanoa Hufanga back in Week 14.
With Bosa back, they were 3rd in pressure rate (46.4%) in Week 15.
With Bosa on the field this season, the 49ers are 3rd in the NFL in pressure rate (39.3%).
That may not matter much since Tua throws the ball so quickly on short passes, but with Bosa on the field this season, the 49ers have allowed a 59.1% completion rate, 5.8 Y/A, and a 3.0% touchdown rate compared to a 77% completion rate, 7.3 Y/A, and a 6.9% touchdown rate with him sidelined.
The Dolphins will also likely be without Jaylen Waddle here, removing another weapon.
Tua is also a boom-or-bust fantasy option this week, but I am more pessimistic about his output than Purdy.
Running Back
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More Week 16 Fantasy Breakdowns From The Worksheet:
| Matchup | Time |
|---|---|
| Broncos @ Chargers -- FREE | Thursday Night Football |
| Texans @ Chiefs -- FREE | Saturday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Steelers @ Ravens -- FREE | Saturday -- 4:30 p.m. ET |
| Giants @ Falcons | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Lions @ Bears | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Browns @ Bengals | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Titans @ Colts | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Rams @ Jets | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Eagles @ Commanders | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Cardinals @ Panthers | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Vikings @ Seahawks | Sunday -- 4:05 p.m. ET |
| Patriots @ Bills | Sunday -- 4:25 p.m. ET |
| Jaguars @ Raiders | Sunday -- 4:25 p.m. ET |
| 49ers @ Dolphins | Sunday -- 4:25 p.m. ET |
| Bucs @ Cowboys | Sunday Night Football |
| Saints @ Packers -- FREE | Monday Night Football |
