As part of the Sharp Football Draft Kit, Raymond Summerlin is posting a fantasy football preview for all 32 NFL teams.
This preview includes advanced stats, the fantasy football outlook for Brock Purdy, Deebo Samuel, George Kittle, Brandon Aiyuk, Christian McCaffrey, and every other notable 49er, and in-depth analysis of the coaching staff, passing game, and rushing attack.
Find a link to every team preview in our Draft Kit Hub.
Highlights:
- Kyle Shanahan is a wizard. Despite three starting quarterbacks including Mr. Irrelevant himself Brock Purdy, the 49ers remained one of the most effective attacks in the league, finishing sixth in points per drive. They were even better after adding Christian McCaffrey, finishing second overall in EPA per play over the final 11 weeks.
- Including the playoffs, Deebo Samuel finished 2022 with 1,109 yards from scrimmage and six touchdowns in 16 games. His 13.1 PPR points per game including the playoffs would have ranked 27th among wide receivers last season. His touchdown total returned to expected last season, and both his yards per touch (8.8) and yards per route run (1.69) fell to career lows.
- Christian McCaffrey joined the 49ers in Week 7. From that point on, he averaged 21.7 PPR points per game (1st among qualifying running backs), 5.7 yards per touch (2nd), and scored 11 total touchdowns (2nd). He handled 58% of the running back carries over that span and was second on the team with a 19.8% target share.
2022 49ers Stats (NFL Rank):
- Points: 450 (6th)
- Total Offense: 6,216 (5th)
- Plays: 1,047 (21st)
- Offensive TDs: 50 (5th)
- Points Per Drive: 2.32 (6th)
- EPA+ Per Play: 8.4 (4th)
- Situation Neutral Pace: 32.38 seconds (26th)
2023 49ers Coaching Staff:
- Head Coach: Kyle Shanahan
- Offensive Coordinator: Chris Foerster
Kyle Shanahan is a wizard.
Despite three starting quarterbacks including Mr. Irrelevant himself Brock Purdy, the 49ers remained one of the most effective attacks in the league. They were even better after adding Christian McCaffrey, finishing second overall in EPA per play over the final 11 weeks.
At this point, we know what to expect from a Shanahan offense.
The 49ers rank 30th in neutral pass rate over his tenure and have been four percent under their expected pass rate. They have finished 2nd, 14th, 5th, and 9th in rushing attempts and 2nd, 15th, 7th, and 8th in rushing yards over the last four seasons.
Shanny does have some pass-heavy offenses on his resume – the Falcons were two percent over their expected pass rate during his tenure – and it is possible he would lean more that way with a top-10 quarterback.
Perhaps Purdy becomes that this season – or Trey Lance and Sam Darnold if we want to participate in the coach-speak charade – but the 49ers’ offense should look familiar in 2023.
2022 49ers Passing Stats:
- Dropbacks: 557 (28th)
- Neutral Pass Rate: 47.9% (25th)
- Pass Rate Over Expected: -4.4% (22nd)
- Pressure Rate Allowed: 16.2% (2nd)
- ESPN Pass Block Win Rate: 59% (19th)
2023 49ers Passing Game Preview:
The 49ers will face the 14th-easiest passing schedule based on 2022 efficiency numbers.
- QB: Brock Purdy, Trey Lance, Sam Darnold
- WR: Deebo Samuel, Danny Gray
- WR: Brandon Aiyuk, Ronnie Bell
- WR: Jauan Jennings, Ray-Ray McCloud
- TE: George Kittle, Cameron Latu
Despite Kyle Shanahan’s assertion that the 49ers have three “franchise-like” options, this quarterback room is at best unproven.
*Preseason Update: Brock Purdy has, unsurprisingly, been named the Week 1 starter, and he will be backed up by Sam Darnold.
The future of Trey Lance remains up in the air, but his easiest path to fantasy value might be via a trade.
If he is healthy, Brock Purdy should open the season as the starter after his surprising performance late last season.
From Week 13 on including the playoffs, Purdy was third in EPA per play among qualifying quarterbacks, eighth in success rate, and 11th in completion rate over expected.
He averaged 218 passing yards per game with 13 touchdowns and just three interceptions over the final six games of the regular season, ranking 10th in fantasy points per game during that span.
There are caveats, though.
His 7.6% touchdown rate over the final six games would have easily ranked first last season – Patrick Mahomes was first among qualifying quarterbacks at 6.3% – and would have been the highest qualifying rate since Aaron Rodgers’ absurd 2020 season.
Purdy’s yards per attempt number was not quite as unsustainable. Still, 51.4% of his passing yardage came after the catch (would have ranked eighth), 71.8% of his attempts targeted a player 10 yards or closer to the line of scrimmage (15th), and 8.8% of his attempts targeted a player 20 yards or more down the field (sixth lowest).
Purdy did not face an elite pass-rushing defense until the playoffs last season, another caveat to his performance since he struggled under pressure.
| Pocket Type | Completion % | Rank | Inaccurate % | Rank | Yards Per Attempt | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pressured | 47.7% | 24 | 21.5% | 43 | 6.6 | 13 |
| Clean | 73.8% | 4 | 7.1% | 8 | 9.0 | 3 |
Purdy’s passing numbers do not look that much different than Jimmy Garoppolo’s, a player who has always looked better in the advanced numbers than his league reputation.
The glass-half-full view is Purdy matched Garoppolo as a seventh-round rookie thrust unexpectedly into the starting job and could improve moving forward.
The glass-half-empty view is that, much like Jimmy, Purdy’s success came down to Shanahan’s offensive system, and he does not have the upside for much more, especially given the likely regression to his efficiency numbers and his performance under pressure.
More importantly for our purposes, Jimmy G averaged 14.73 fantasy points per game during his time with the 49ers, a number that would have ranked 20th in 2022. Unless Purdy starts running more than he did as a rookie, that is a fair expectation for him this season.
Trey Lance theoretically has more fantasy upside – he has averaged 47 rushing yards in his four career starts – but the tea leaves suggest Lance is more likely to be traded than win the starting job in camp, assuming Purdy is healthy.
Allegedly the “most talented thrower” in 49ers history – lol – Sam Darnold could get a look over Lance if Purdy is not ready for Week 1.
He quietly put together a decent six starts to close out 2022 – 8.2 yards per attempt with seven touchdowns and three interceptions along with two more scores on the ground.
Perhaps some Shanny magic can help Darnold build on that, but he will be no better than a QB2 even if he gets some starts.
Including Christian McCaffrey, whoever wins the quarterback job will have an impressive group to target.
Samuel was sidelined for a large chunk of Purdy’s run, but he returned to average nearly nine touches per game in the playoffs.
Including that playoff run, he finished 2022 with 1,109 yards from scrimmage and six touchdowns in 16 games.
His 13.1 PPR points per game including the playoffs would have ranked 27th among wide receivers last season.
That is a big step back from his WR3 finish in 2021, but that is not a huge surprise. Samuel scored around eight more touchdowns than expected given his usage in 2021.
His touchdown total returned to expected last season, and both his yards per touch (8.8) and yards per route run (1.69) fell to career lows.
Those lows give some hope of a bounceback – the efficiency numbers looked better in a very small sample in the playoffs – but it is tough to see another massive touchdown season for Samuel, especially with McCaffrey on the team.
Samuel’s missed time opened the door for Brandon Aiyuk to lead the team with 114 targets which he turned into a 78-1,015-8 line, finishing 24th among qualifying receivers in PPR points per game.
Promisingly, Aiyuk had a 22.5% target share when Samuel was on the field last season, and he maintained a 20% target share and 34.4% air yard share with McCaffrey on the team and Samuel healthy from Week 10 through 14.
It is important to avoid reading too much into small sample sizes. It also has to be noted Aiyuk was lucky from a touchdown perspective, and he was the WR35 in per-game scoring with Samuel active last season.
Still, he has a solid WR3 argument with the upside for more if this passing game takes a step forward or Samuel deals with more injury issues.
George Kittle is the other fantasy-relevant name in this passing game.
While fantasy players would like to see more volume for Kittle – he finished eighth in routes run among tight ends and 10th in targets – he finished fifth among qualifying tight ends in yards per route run, second in PPR points per game, and scored 11 touchdowns.
Those 11 scores out-paced his expected total, and while his yards per route number was still elite, it was well below his usual standard.
There is also a somewhat concerning downward trend both in yards per route and targets per route over the last three seasons.
Even with those caveats, Kittle looks like a good bet to be a top-five option at tight end in 2023.
Jauan Jennings has established himself as the No. 3 option, and Ray-Ray McCloud got some run when Samuel was injured last season. Still, this is not a passing game to target tertiary options.
2022 49ers Rushing Stats:
- Rushing Attempts – Scrambles: 491 (6th)
- Yards Before Contact Per Attempt: 2.9 (11th)
- Football Outsiders’ Adjusted Line Yards: 4.7 (4th)
- ESPN’s Run Block Win Rate: 71% (16th)
2023 49ers Running Game Preview:
The 49ers will face the 15th-easiest rushing schedule based on 2022 efficiency numbers.
- RB: Christian McCaffrey, Elijah Mitchell, Kyle Juszczyk
- OL: Trent Williams, Aaron Banks, Jake Brendel, Spencer Burford, Colton McKivitz
As it turns out, pairing Christian McCaffrey and Kyle Shanahan was not just a great idea on paper.
McCaffrey joined the 49ers in Week 7. From that point on, he averaged 21.7 PPR points per game (1st among qualifying running backs), 5.7 yards per touch (2nd), and scored 11 total touchdowns (2nd).
He handled 58% of the running back carries over that span and was second on the team with a 19.8% target share.
He averaged just over 19 touches per game and was fourth among running backs with 16 touches at the goal line or in the low red zone, scoring five touchdowns on those opportunities.
The offensive line is a question mark, and last season was the first time McCaffrey played more than seven games since the 2019 season.
The real concern, however, is how the 49ers use McCaffrey when Elijah Mitchell is healthy.
McCaffrey averaged 15 touches per game in the four regular season games Mitchell was active. He averaged 23.5 touches with Mitchell out.
Even with those concerns, it is tough to view McCaffrey as anything but the clear-cut No. 1 running back in fantasy.
That usage concern for McCaffrey also means Mitchell cannot be completely discounted in fantasy drafts.
He played six games with McCaffrey in 2022 including the playoffs. Mitchell averaged just over 10 carries for 48.5 yards and scored three touchdowns in those contests.
He also would carry immense upside if something happened to McCaffrey, although Mitchell is as likely to end up injured – he has played 16 games in two seasons.
Mitchell is a handcuff bet that could provide some standalone value during the bye weeks or in deeper leagues.
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