The Worksheet, a comprehensive fantasy football preview by Rich Hribar, breaks down everything you need to know about the Week 12 matchup between the Packers and 49ers.
Find a breakdown of every Week 12 NFL game in our Worksheet Hub.
| San Francisco | Rank | @ | Green Bay | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2.5 | Spread | -2.5 | ||
| 22.5 | Implied Total | 25.0 | ||
| 25.0 | 8 | Points/Gm | 25.0 | 8 |
| 22.2 | 16 | Points All./Gm | 21.3 | 10 |
| 62.4 | 12 | Plays/Gm | 61.4 | 20 |
| 59.4 | 8 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 61.2 | 14 |
| 6.4 | 2 | Off. Yards/Play | 6.3 | 4 |
| 5.1 | 8 | Def. Yards/Play | 5.3 | 14 |
| 47.60% | 9 | Rush% | 49.67% | 6 |
| 52.40% | 24 | Pass% | 50.33% | 27 |
| 41.58% | 12 | Opp. Rush % | 44.77% | 15 |
| 58.42% | 21 | Opp. Pass % | 55.23% | 18 |
- San Francisco has outscored their opponents by 55 points in quarter 1 through 3 this season (7th in the league) but have been outscored by 27 points in the fourth quarter (26th).
- Green Bay has converted a league-low 25% (7-of-28) of their third downs since Week 8 after a 40.5% rate (34-of-84) prior.
- Green Bay averages 3.7 passing plays of 20 or more yards per game, third in the NFL.
- San Francisco averages 3.6 per game, fourth in the NFL.
- San Francisco has punted on a league-low 25.5% of their drives. The league average is 35.8%.
- 43.1% of San Francisco's drives reach the red zone or score prior, 6th in the league.
- San Francisco has converted 48.8% of their red zone possessions into touchdowns (26th) after a league-high 68% in 2023.
- The 49ers have converted 55.6% (14-of-24) of their goal-to-go possessions for touchdowns (29th) after an 84.6% rate in 2023 (33-of-39), second in the league.
- 43.9% of Green Bay's drives reach the red zone or score prior, 5th in the league.
- The Packers have converted 48.7% (19-of-39) of their red zone possessions for touchdowns, 27th in the league.
Trust = spike production for that player
Quarterback
Brandon Allen: Allen will make the start for San Francisco after Brock Purdy was ruled out with a shoulder injury.
Allen has started 9 games over his career with the Broncos and Bengals.
His highest fantasy scoring week in those games was QB10, the lone QB1 scoring week he posted.
He has not started a game since the 2021 season, which was a Week 18 fill in for a Cincinnati team resting starters.
He has not thrown a pass in an NFL game since 2022.
On 263 career passes in the NFL, he has completed 56.7% with a 3.8% touchdown rate and a 2.3% interception rate.
This preseason, Allen was 19-of-30 (61.1%) for 194 yards (6.5 Y/A) without a touchdown or interception.
Allen adds a layer of variance to this offense and is only a QB2 for fantasy.
He will have the best set of skill players surrounding him.
We have seen Kyle Shanahan coax some production out of backups in the past.
Not only from Purdy, but guys like CJ Beathard and Nick Mullens.
Allen is not making his first ever start on Sunday, while Purdy (21.7 points), Mullens (22.2 points), and Beathard (13.2 points) all had usable games in their first career starts as backups under Shanahan in San Francisco.
This is still an offense with Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel, George Kittle, and Jauan Jennings.
If Allen was at least useful for 2QB gamers or punt player in DFS in a week with six teams on bye, how surprising would it be?
It is noteworthy that the 49ers could also be without Trent Williams, who is a game-time decision with an ankle injury.
Green Bay's defense has been dependent on getting pressure this season.
When they have created pressure, they have allowed a 49.4% completion rate and 4.4 Y/A.
When they have not gotten pressure, they have allowed a 71.6% completion rate and 8.2 Y/A.
That yards per pass attempt difference is going from second in the league with pressure down to 27th without.
Jordan Love: Love attempted a season-low 17 passes on Sunday as Green Bay had their heaviest running script with Love under center this season.
Green Bay threw the ball 7% below expectations on Sunday, posting a 46.5% dropback rate.
Despite the run-heavy script, Love still threw for 261 yards on the strength of a season-high 15.4 yards per pass attempt.
He also added 18 yards and a rushing touchdown, his first of the season after four in 2023.
Love ended the week as QB11 (20.2 points) in a tough assignment against a good Chicago pass defense.
Like Purdy, Love just has regularly delivered as a high-floor, high-ceiling fantasy quarterback.
He has been in the back half of weekly scoring just one time this season after doing so only three times all of last year.
He is more of a fringe QB1 in tougher spots, but he has rarely turned in flops.
San Francisco has not been as strong of a defense this season compared to previous versions due to all of their injuries and moving pieces, but they have still stymied passers.
They have allowed only two QB1 scorers this season and have not allowed a passer to finish higher than QB19 since Week 5, facing Geno Smith (x2), Patrick Mahomes, Dak Prescott, and Baker Mayfield over that stretch.
All of those passers scored fewer points than they had averaged entering the matchup.
San Francisco is fourth in passing points allowed per attempt (0.331), allowing 6.6 Y/A (5th) with a 3.4% touchdown rate (10th).
The absence of Nick Bosa (ruled out) is a significant loss for this defense.
The 49ers have a 38.0% pressure rate with Bosa on the field this season compared to a 22.0% rate without him this season.
That is difference from 5th in the league to dead last.
The 49ers have faced 50 dropbacks this season without Bosa on the field, allowing a 83.0% completion rate and 7.4 Y/A.
With him on the field, they have allowed a 60.2% completion rate and 6.4 Y/A.
Running Back
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Learn MoreMore Week 12 Fantasy Breakdowns From The Worksheet:
| Matchup | Time |
|---|---|
| Steelers @ Browns -- FREE | Thursday Night Football |
| Vikings @ Bears | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Lions @ Colts | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Patriots @ Dolphins | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Bucs @ Giants | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Cowboys @ Commanders | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Chiefs @ Panthers | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Titans @ Texans | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Broncos @ Raiders | Sunday -- 4:05 p.m. ET |
| 49ers @ Packers | Sunday -- 4:25 p.m. ET |
| Cardinals @ Seahawks | Sunday -- 4:25 p.m. ET |
| Eagles @ Rams | Sunday Night Football |
| Ravens @ Chargers -- FREE | Monday Night Football |