Seahawks vs. 49ers Fantasy Football Worksheet, Week 6

The Worksheet, a comprehensive fantasy football preview by Rich Hribar, breaks down everything you need to know about the Week 6 matchup between the Seahawks and 49ers on Thursday Night Football.

Find a breakdown of every Week 6 NFL game in our Worksheet Hub.

Trust = spike production for that player

Quarterback

Brock Purdy: Purdy has arguably played better football this season, but that has not equaled more fantasy points.

Purdy once again leads the league in yards per pass attempt (8.8).

He has the most completions on throws 10 or more yards downfield (44).

Purdy is averaging 9.3 air yards per completion, second in the league behind Anthony Richardson (10.5).

Richardson has the league's worst completion percentage (50.6%) and the lowest rate of passes completed below expectations (-10.6%).

Purdy is second in completion rate over expectations (5.9%) per Next Gen Stats.

But Purdy also has only QB1 scoring week through five games as touchdown regression has finally caught up to him to open the season.

He has 1 or fewer touchdown passes in all but one game to start the season.

Purdy's touchdown rate is 3.8% (21st) after rates of 7.6% in 2022 and 7.0% in 2023.

Regression comes for everyone inevitably, but there should be some rebound here for Purdy based on how well San Francisco is still moving the football.

Purdy leads the NFL with 34 dropbacks in the red zone (34), but his 16.7% touchdown rate in the red zone is nearly half of what it was in 2023 (29.7%).

Purdy has thrown 18 passes into the end zone this season, tied for the most in the league.

However, 22.2% of those passes have been touchdowns, well down from a 66.7% rate in 2022 and a 57.1% rate in 2023.

Purdy is also running a lot more this season.

He has double-digit rushing yards in all five games.

After 13 rushing yards as a rookie and 144 last year, Purdy already has 108 yards rushing this season.

Even if we are knocking Purdy for this period of scoring regression, he still belongs as a back-end QB1.

He has a high floor in 2QB formats and is capable of spike weeks when those rates rebound compared to his opportunities.

The Seattle defense opened the season by shutting down a soft slate of Bo Nix, Jacoby Brissett, and Skylar Thompson, but this unit has provided no resistance to Jared Goff and Daniel Jones the past two weeks.

Goff (27.2 points) and Jones (22.1 points) have been QB1 scorers against Seattle in the past two games.

Purdy is 4-0 in starts against Seattle, throwing multiple touchdowns in three of those four games.

Geno Smith: Smith is off to a great start as a value pick by gamers this summer, finishing as a top-10 scorer in four of five games.

Seattle is downright winging the ball around.

The Seahawks have thrown 9% over expectations including 12% over expectations on first downs.

As a byproduct, Smith leads the NFL in dropbacks (45.0 per game) and is first in completed passes (28.6 per game) and passing yards (293.2 per game).

He has thrown the ball 40 or more times in three games, the most in the league.

We wish there were more “easy buttons” here. Smith is dead last in the NFL with a 15.1% play action rate and 23rd in dropback rate with pre-snap motion (38.6%).

However, that volume and his receiving corps are enough to keep Smith as a high-floor QB2 and fringe QB1 every week.

This San Francisco pass defense has many moving parts due to injuries and has sometimes been vulnerable.

The 49ers are 20th in passing points allowed per attempt (0.438), 24th in yards allowed per attempt (7.4), and 23rd in touchdown rate (4.9%) to passers.

The 49ers have faced stationary quarterbacks in Aaron Rodgers and Mattew Stafford, but they have allowed Sam Darnold (32 yards) and Kyler Murray (83 yards) to have solid rushing lines.

Smith has rushed for 30 or more yards in three of his opening five games.

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Running Back

Jordan Mason: Mason had 15 touches for 98 yards on Sunday. As we have fleshed out his sample this season, Mason resembles players like Nick Chubb and Derrick Henry for fantasy football.

He is an efficient runner, but since he does not catch many passes, he relies on touchdown production to obtain his weekly ceiling in fantasy.

Mason has closed as the RB5, RB11, and RB5 in his three games with a touchdown.

In his two weeks without a touchdown, he has been RB24 and RB32.

Mason has two or fewer catches in every game.

He is fourth among running backs in routes run (115) but only has a 7.0% target rate per route, the lowest rate for any running back with 50 or more routes run.

Even if Mason is a touchdown-dependent RB1, we know he will get the ball in an effective offense.

Mason has handled 89.7% of the backfield runs, second among all running backs.

Seattle has had some sketchy weeks defending the run to open the season.

They were great against the Denver (20 carries for 64 yards) and Miami (17 carries for 59 yards) backfields but were beaten up by the New England (33 carries for 179 yards), Detroit (26 carries for 118 yards), and New York Giants (22 carries for 133 yards) backfields.

Kenneth Walker: Walker had a disappointing day on the ground against the Giants with five runs for 19 yards.

That type of running game would have nuked him from a fantasy stance in previous seasons.

But since Walker is running more routes and the Seahawks are using him more as a pass catcher, he salvaged his day with seven catches for 57 yards.

Walker is averaging 4.3 catches per game after 1.8 and 1.9 catches per game over his first two seasons in the NFL.

Walker has run a route on 50% or more of the team's dropbacks in every game he has played this season.

He had a 35.4% route rate in his games played last season and a 42.6% rate as a rookie.

That is a significant development for Walker because we already know he has a high ceiling when it comes to touchdowns and long runs.

If he is going to have a secure floor that is not completely negated through game scripts like in previous seasons, he is a fantasy RB1 moving forward.

Through two seasons, Walker averaged 19.8 points per game in weeks with a touchdown compared to just 8.6 points per game in his weeks without a score.

The 49ers have allowed 4.17 yards per carry to running backs (9th) but have allowed 12.2 rushing points (15th) and 10.0 receiving points (25th) to running backs to open the year.

Wide Receiver

Brandon Aiyuk: After a slow September in which he failed to clear 48 receiving yards in any game, Aiyuk secured 8-of-12 targets for 147 yards on Sunday against the Cardinals.

Aiyuk will look to build up momentum as a volatile WR2 against a Seattle defense that is now 19th in points allowed per game to outside wide receivers (20.1), where Aiyuk plays 85.7% of his snaps.

After an excellent start to the season, Seattle has had tough showings the past two weeks.

They allowed 7 catches for 160 yards and a touchdown to Detroit receivers out wide in Week 4 and 10 catches for 137 yards and 2 touchdowns to Giants receivers on the outside this past week.

Deebo Samuel: Samuel took a back seat in the passing game on Sunday as Aiyuk and George Kittle were the primary targets.

That is the San Francisco passing game we know.

Due to volume restraints, someone is often left out weekly, which is why this group of pass catchers can be volatile.

Samuel has only seen 8 total targets in the past two games after opening the year with 9 targets in Week 1 and 10 in Week 2.

You take the bitter with the sweet with these pass catchers.

If looking for an upside angle with Samuel as a WR2 or looking for a captain in single-game DFS, Samuel has faced Seattle three times with Purdy under center. He has lines of 6-133-1, 7-79-0, and 7-149-1 through the air in those games.

He also has had two rushing touchdowns in those three games.

DK Metcalf: After three straight games with 100-plus yards receiving, Metcalf slowed down on Sunday against the Giants, catching 4-of-7 targets for 55 yards.

Through five weeks, Metcalf has 22.3% of the Seattle targets (WR28) with a target on 20.5% of his routes (WR47).

While those rate stats are lighter than his career rates, Metcalf leads all wide receivers in routes (210).

He has 41.3% of the team’s air yards (WR13), but the appealing big picture is that Metcalf is running 49.0% of his routes within 10 yards on the line of scrimmage, which would be a high for his career.

Those shorter routes can access more friendly targets.

He currently has a 65.1% catch rate, the highest of his career if that remains static.

Metcalf remains a fringe WR1 for fantasy purposes.

The 49ers are middle-of-the-pack against WR1 targets, allowing 14.3 per game to those receivers (14th).

Jaxon Smith-Njigba: Smith-Njigba only managed 4 receptions for 31 yards (7 targets) on Sunday, but he caught his first touchdown of the year to anchor his line.

Smith-Njigba has not taken off as expected in year two because he is still not getting enough usage downfield.

He is averaging only 8.9 yards per catch after 10.0 as a rookie.

Ryan Grubb has cut out the stuff behind the line of scrimmage that plagued Smith-Njigba’s rookie season usage, but his intermediate target rate (12.0%) and deep target rate (10.0%) are lower than his rookie season.

The good news is that he is playing more in year two than as a rookie, and Seattle is extremely pass heavy.

Because of that, JSN is third among all receivers in routes (209).

Smith-Njigba has a 19.3% target share on early downs (WR37) but a 26.2% share on third downs (WR24).

Playing 82.0% of his snaps in the slot, Smith-Njigba does draw matchup appeal here as a WR3/FLEX.

The 49ers allow a league-high 15.1 yards per target to slot receivers and are 23rd in points allowed per game to slot receivers (14.5).

Tyler Lockett: Lockett grabbed 4-of-6 targets for 75 yards on Sunday.

Lockett only has one week as a top-36 scorer, but he has been a WR4 or better in four of five games since Seattle has thrown the ball so much.

With that, Lockett is a floor-based WR4/FLEX since the passing volume in this offense elevates much of his production.

Lockett is currently averaging a career-low 1.50 yards per route run while his 17.5% target rate per route (third on the team) is his lowest since 2018.

Jauan Jennings: Jennings pulled in 1-of-4 targets for 13 yards on Sunday.

In his four games with all of Aiyuk, Samuel, and Kittle available, Jennings has had games of 5-64-0 (5 targets), 2-37-0 (4 targets), 3-88-0 (6 targets), and 1-13-0 (4 targets).

There are more targets in this offense available with no receiving threat out of the backfield, but Jennings is still the fourth-best option in this passing game when it is at full strength.

That makes him best used in single-game DFS, leaving him as a contingency-based WR5/FLEX in seasonal formats.

Tight End

George Kittle: Kittle turned in his fourth straight TE1 scoring week on Sunday, catching 8-of-12 targets for 64 yards and a touchdown.

It was his third straight game with a score.

Kittle now leads the 49ers with a target on 24.6% of his routes.

His rates with Purdy under center were 20.9% in 2022 and 19.6% in 2023.

One thing helping boost Kittle’s targets is that with no Christian McCaffrey on the field, the 49ers are seeing more shell coverage than in previous seasons.

45.9% of Purdy’s dropbacks have been with the middle of the field open as opposed to rates of 34.8% and 35.8% to open his career.

Kittle has been targeted on 25.6% of his routes against those looks.

There is always some volatility with this passing game, but Kittle is a set-and-forget TE1.

Seattle has not been challenged heavily by tight ends, but they have allowed 7.7 yards per target (23rd) to the position including games of 8-109-0 to Hunter Henry and 4-53-0 to Sam LaPorta.

Tight ends have 27.5% of the receptions allowed by Seattle, the fourth-highest in the league.

Seahawks TEs: Noah Fant was back in control here in Week 5, running 36 routes and catching three passes for 24 yards.

A.J. Barner only ran 8 routes in the game, catching his lone target for 13 yards.

The Seattle tight ends are best left for single-game DFS, hoping to get lucky with a touchdown grab.

San Francisco allows 4.8 yards per target to tight ends, which is fourth in the league.

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