As part of the Sharp Football Draft Kit, Raymond Summerlin is posting a fantasy football preview for all 32 NFL teams.
This preview includes advanced stats, the fantasy football outlook for Justin Fields, D.J. Moore, Darnell Mooney, Khalil Herbert, D'Onta Foreman, and every other notable Bear, and in-depth analysis of the coaching staff, passing game, and rushing attack.
Find a link to every team preview in our Draft Kit Hub.
Highlights:
- The Bears finished 29th in neutral pass rate and dead last with a pass rate over expected of -14.1%, the lowest figure since at least 2015. The offseason addition of D.J. Moore suggests they will try to pass more moving forward, but they have a long way to go to even get back to an average pass rate.
- Justin Fields will need to do a better job avoiding negative plays if the Bears plan to pass more. He had easily the highest sack rate last season among qualifying quarterbacks and the second-highest interception rate. He was 5.2% under his expected completion rate, finishing behind Carson Wentz and Mike White.
- Khalil Herbert has averaged five yards per carry thus far in his career and ranked first in rushing yards over expected per attempt last season. The problem is the Bears brought in D’Onta Foreman and Roschon Johnson, muddling a backfield that will already lose high-value carries to Fields. This backfield will score fantasy points, but picking the right person could prove to be a headache.
2022 Bears Stats (NFL Rank):
- Points: 326 (23rd)
- Total Offense: 5,233 (28th)
- Plays: 993 (30th)
- Offensive TDs: 37 (17th)
- Points Per Drive: 1.85 (19th)
- EPA+ Per Play: -3.7 (23rd)
- Situation Neutral Pace: 32.09 seconds (21st)
2023 Bears Coaching Staff:
- Head Coach: Matt Eberflus
- Offensive Coordinator: Luke Getsy
It is tough to know how much last season’s offense reflected the philosophy of the new coaching staff and how much of it came down to necessity.
Luke Getsy came from a Packers offense that was relatively slow-paced under Matt LaFleur, but Green Bay was still seventh in neutral pass rate during Getsy’s second stint with the team.
The Bears were not even close to that last season. They finished 29th in neutral pass rate and dead last with a pass rate over expected of -14.1%, the lowest figure since at least 2015.
The incredibly low pass rate was not just because of Justin Fields scrambling, either. Chicago ranked 30th with 509 dropbacks.
The offseason addition of D.J. Moore suggests they will try to pass more moving forward, but they have a long way to go to get back to an average pass rate even if they want to move more in that direction.
Making that switch will also require Fields to do a better job of avoiding negative plays and to improve his accuracy.
He had easily the highest sack rate last season among qualifying quarterbacks and the second-highest interception rate. He had the third-highest off-target throw rate per PFF.
2022 Bears Passing Stats:
- Dropbacks: 509 (30th)
- Neutral Pass Rate: 42.9% (29th)
- Pass Rate Over Expected: -14.1% (32nd)
- Pressure Rate Allowed: 25.4% (28th)
- ESPN Pass Block Win Rate: 68% (2nd)
2023 Bears Passing Game Preview:
The Bears will face the seventh-easiest passing schedule based on 2022 efficiency numbers.
- QB: Justin Fields, P.J. Walker
- WR: D.J. Moore, Dante Pettis
- WR: Darnell Mooney, Tyler Scott
- WR: Chase Claypool, Velus Jones
- TE: Cole Kmet, Robert Tonyan
Chicago had the choice to take another swing at quarterback or help build up the talent around Justin Fields. They chose the latter, trading the No. 1 pick for a ton of draft capital and, most importantly for fantasy purposes, D.J. Moore.
Moore gives Fields the best receiver he has worked with in the NFL. That is good news for a quarterback who to this point has struggled as a passer.
As mentioned above, Fields has struggled to limit negative plays, and that is not all on the offensive line. PFF credited Fields with 23.9% of Chicago’s allowed pressures, the fifth-highest percentage among qualifying quarterbacks.
He was 5.2% under his expected completion rate, finishing behind Carson Wentz and Mike White, and was 29th in PFF’s adjusted completion rate.
On the other hand, he had the second-best rushing season ever from a quarterback, posting a 160-1,143-8 line on the ground.
There is some big-play luck in that rushing line. Fields had four carries of 40 or more yards and 10 carries of 20 or more yards last season. Josh Allen was second with one carry of 40 or more yards.
Even with those big plays, though, Fields did not significantly outshoot his expected touchdown total, and he should remain one of the best rushing options at the position.
Given that rushing floor, the addition of Moore, and the real possibility he takes a step forward as a passer, Fields is the kind of quarterback to take a risk on after the top three options are off the board.
Moore’s issue has always been quarterback play, and it remains to be seen if that will be better in Chicago – as mentioned above, Fields had the third-highest off-target throw rate per PFF.
Moore has consistently produced despite that lackluster quarterback play. His career 1.95 yards per route run would have ranked 20th last season, and he averaged 77 catches, 1,105 yards, and four touchdowns per 17 games in Carolina.
Even with that efficiency, Moore has never finished better than the WR16 in per-game half-PPR scoring, and he was the WR35 per game last season despite a career-high seven touchdowns.
Volume was part of the issue last season. Moore had his lowest target per game number since his rookie season as the Panthers attempted the fourth-fewest passes in the league.
The Bears, of course, had the second-fewest passes last season, 42 fewer than the Panthers. Chicago could pass more moving forward, especially if Fields improves, but volume remains a concern, especially with other quality options on the depth chart.
The good news is Moore has the talent to capitalize if Fields and this passing game take a step forward, and his ADP will likely fall somewhere near the back of the WR2 tier.
Moore’s arrival should push Darnell Mooney down the pecking order.
Mooney followed up his breakout 2021 with a lackluster 40-493-2 line in 11 full games last season. He maintained a healthy 26.6% target rate in those games, but he averaged just under 45 yards per contest.
Like the entire passing game, Mooney was the victim of a lack of volume and Fields’ accuracy concerns – 21.3% of Mooney’s targets were deemed inaccurate, fifth among receivers with at least 50 targets last season and, ironically, one spot ahead of Moore.
Those concerns potentially still exist this season, Mooney has almost certainly fallen down the target pecking order, and the new regime drafted a potential replacement in Tyler Scott ahead of Mooney's contract season.
Mooney is going to come cheap in fantasy drafts, but it is for good reason. Still, he is only one year removed from a WR23 overall finish.
Chase Claypool will be even cheaper after managing just 14 catches for 140 yards in seven games with the Bears last season. Not exactly the best return on the second-round pick Chicago sent to the Steelers to acquire Claypool in the middle of last season.
Unsurprisingly given when he joined, Claypool reportedly struggled to learn the playbook, and it is possible he is more involved following a full offseason with the team.
There is also a chance he reverts back to his pre-2022 form. Over his first two years in the league, Claypool averaged 1.85 yards per route run, a number that would have ranked 26th in the league among receivers last season.
Like the entire passing game, volume and quarterback play are a concern, but Claypool is more talented than he showed with the Bears last season. That gives him some deep sleeper appeal.
Scott is unlikely to be a factor this season if everyone stays healthy, but he is a name to stash away for waivers and in Dynasty formats. He should be able to take the top off and create big plays from Day 1.
After scoring zero touchdowns in 2021 despite 93 targets, Cole Kmet hit paydirt seven times last season to go along with 50 catches and 544 yards.
Added in free agency, Robert Tonyan is unlikely to return fantasy value of his own – we will always have those 11 touchdowns in 2020, Bobby T – but it is a concern for Kmet’s playing time.
Kmet was a nearly every-down player last season, leading the position with a 94.1% snap rate and running the 12th-most routes despite the Bears’ basement-level pass rate.
He has been targeted on just 17.4% of his career routes – would have ranked 45th at the position last season – so any hit to his time on the field or routes run is a concern, especially since that target rate is unlikely to get better with Moore around.
Only 24, Kmet still has room to grow given the way tight ends are usually slow to develop, and he carries the same Fields-improvement upside as the rest of the passing game. Still, he is nothing better than a TE2 dart throw in redraft.
2022 Bears Rushing Stats:
- Rushing Attempts – Scrambles: 485 (8th)
- Yards Before Contact Per Attempt: 3.4 (3rd)
- Football Outsiders’ Adjusted Line Yards: 4.52 (11th)
- ESPN’s Run Block Win Rate: 74% (3rd)
2023 Bears Running Game Preview:
The Bears will face the second-easiest rushing schedule based on 2022 efficiency numbers.
RB: Khalil Herbert, D’Onta Foreman, Roschon Johnson, Travis Homer
OL: Braxton Jones, Teven Jenkins, Cody Whitehair, Nate Davis, Darnell Wright
*Preseason Update: Khalil Herbert operated as the clear RB1 in the first preseason game, playing every snap with Justin Fields. He also took a screen 56 yards for a touchdown. Then he sat out with the starters in the second preseason game, seemingly confirming his place atop the depth chart.
Herbert has been a yard creator throughout his short career and now looks set to be the lead back. He is a value pick.
Chicago was a good running team last season even if Justin Fields is removed from the equation.
Their running backs ranked 13th in yards per carry despite seeing a stacked box a the fifth-highest rate, and their offensive line created the third-most yards before contact per attempt.
The running game will look different this year with David Montgomery now playing for the Lions. Montgomery accounted for at least 200 carries in each of his four seasons with the Bears and touched the ball 235 times last season.
The incumbent, Khalil Herbert posted a 129-731-4 rushing line in 13 games last season. He has averaged five yards per carry thus far in his career and ranked first in rushing yards over expected per attempt last season according to Next Gen Stats.
It is a small sample, but Herbert has looked like a yard creator thus far in his short career. The problem is he is a former sixth-round pick who has not done much in the passing game, has 255 career touches, and watched the Bears add two major rivals over the offseason.
The first of those is D’Onta Foreman, who is coming off yet another successful job as a stopgap option.
After putting up a 133-566-3 line in nine games with the Titans in 2021, Foreman rushed for 914 yards and five scores on 203 carries for the Panthers last year.
Over the last two seasons, he ranks 14th in yards after contact per rush among qualifying backs. He was sixth in rushing yards over expected last year.
A former third-round pick, it is possible Foreman would be viewed in a much different light if his career had not been derailed by an Achilles injury. Without qualifications, he has been an effective runner the last two seasons and is a real threat to win the lead job.
Chicago added another back to the rotation when they drafted Roschon Johnson in the fourth round.
Overshadowed by Bijan Robinson at Texas, Johnson is a quality prospect in his own right who is big (219 pounds), can get downhill quickly (86th percentile 10-yard split), and create yards (forced a missed or broken tackle on 35.5% of his carries in 2022).
He is more talented than his college production suggests and is yet another threat to early-down work.
This is a rough fantasy situation given the uncertainty at the top of the depth chart and the high-value touches that will be lost to Fields, who was second among quarterbacks in goal-to-go carries in 2022.
That said, the schedule is favorable, and the presence of Fields should boost the efficiency of whoever is carrying the ball.
If someone can emerge from this group, especially if that someone shows some up to now unseen utility in the passing game, there is fantasy upside here.
Unfortunately, a value-destroying timeshare seems more likely.
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