Bears vs Packers Fantasy Football Worksheet, Week 14

The Worksheet, a fantasy football overview by Rich Hribar, breaking down everything you need to know for the Week 14 Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers Sunday Night Football game.

Chicago	Rank	@	Green Bay	Rank
12.5		Spread	-12.5
16		Implied Total	28.5
16.8	30	Points/Gm	23.6	15
23.9	22	Points All./Gm	20.2	5
61.1	29	Plays/Gm	62.6	19
60.8	7	Opp. Plays/Gm	61.3	11
4.9	29	Off. Yards/Play	5.7	15
5.4	13	Def. Yards/Play	5.3	7
46.66%	7	Rush%	41.81%	14
53.34%	26	Pass%	58.19%	19
46.64%	29	Opp. Rush %	38.64%	7
53.36%	4	Opp. Pass %	61.36%	26

Green Bay is a league-best 10-2 (5-0 at home) against the spread this season.
Over their past three games, just 23.3% of the offensive yardage by the Packers has come via rushing (29th in the league) after 32.9% prior (12th).
Aaron Rodgers has accounted for 81.3% of the Green Bay offensive touchdowns, the highest rate for any quarterback in the league.
The Packers are fourth in the league in sacks plus turnovers per game on offense (2.8) while the Bears are 31st (4.9).
Chicago is averaging 3.0 scoring plays per game, 30th in the league.
Green Bay is only allowing 3.6 scoring plays per game, sixth in the league.
75% (30-of-40) of the scoring plays allowed by Green Bay have been touchdowns, the highest rate in the league.

Trust = spike production for that player

Quarterback

Aaron Rodgers (TRUST): Rodgers’s toe injury has gotten a lot of publicity, but his fantasy play with the injured toe has been sensational as Rodgers has been the QB2 in overall scoring in each of his past two games played against the Vikings and Rams. In those games, Rodgers threw for 385 and 307 yards with six touchdown passes.

Here, he draws a Bears defense that is 28th in the league in pressure rate (20.5%), 22nd in completion rate (67.1%), 28th in yards allowed per pass attempt (7.7 Y/A), and 28th in touchdown rate (5.6%) allowed to opposing passers.

Bears QB: Justin Fields was able to log a couple of limited practices at the end of last week, so we will monitor his availability to return to the field for Sunday night after missing the past two games with a rib injury.

Fields made his fourth career start against the Packers back in Week 6, completing 16-of-27 passes for 174 yards with a touchdown and interception while adding 43 yards rushing to his total. Fields was getting more comfortable prior to his injury against the Ravens in Week 11 with back-to-back QB1 scoring weeks prior to that game, but he will be handled as an upside QB2 here if returning to action. Green Bay is 16th in passing points allowed per game (14.8).

We only have interest in Fields here. If Andy Dalton starts, Dalton has finished higher than QB21 in one of his four starts.

Running Back

David Montgomery: Montgomery’s Week 13 is why we stay on top of player usage over the weeks even when positive results do not follow. Montgomery turned in 141 yards and a touchdown on 29 touches against Arizona, even losing another touchdown to a quarterback sneak from Dalton at the goal line. It was Dalton’s first touchdown since Week 4. Montgomery has 64-of-74 backfield touches over his past three games. That usage is what keeps Montgomery as a volume-based RB2 with weekly upside should he find the end zone.

Green Bay has been sound versus the run, allowing 4.0 yards per carry to backs (10th) and 11.5 rushing points per game (11th). Montgomery did not play in the first matchup between these teams, but Khalil Herbert produced 112 yards and a touchdown on 21 touches in that game.

Packers RBs: Prior to the bye, Aaron Jones returned to the field to play 49% of the snaps but managed just 23 yards on 10 carries. A.J. Dillon logged 51% of the snaps, handling 25 touches for 90 yards and a score.

Even prior to the MCL injury that Jones sustained in Week 10, Dillon was seeing an extended role. Jones had fewer than 60% of the backfield touches in four of the previous six games with 57.9% and 50% in Weeks 8-9. Jones has had just three RB1 scoring weeks, so he was already living in RB2 territory. Jones did have one of those games when these teams met in Week 6, turning 17 touches into 110 yards and a touchdown. Finding the end zone is critical as Jones has not finished higher than RB20 in a game without a touchdown this season.

We will see how the Packers deal out touches to Jones and Dillon on Sunday, but Jones has to be handled as an RB2 with Dillion as a FLEX option with the differentiator being who gets the opportunity to get into the end zone.

Wide Receiver

Davante Adams: Adams was just getting hot prior to the bye, turning in games of 7-115-2 and 8-104-0 with at least six receptions in each of his past four games.

Adams will look to stay hot as a top fantasy wideout out of the bye against a Chicago defense that is allowing the fewest receptions per game (3.7) to opposing WR1 options but has allowed those wideouts to score nine touchdowns (31st). Adams caught 4-of-5 targets for 89 yards when these teams met in Week 6.

Darnell Mooney: Mooney hit a speed bump last week, catching 5-of-7 targets for 27 yards. That was his first scoring week outside of the top-30 since Week 7. Mooney still snagged five passes for the fifth time over his past seven games, which includes catching 5-of-8 targets for 45 yards and a touchdown against Green Bay in Week 6.

As for Mooney’s splits per quarterback, he has reeled in 29-of-53 (54.7%) targets for 441 yards (8.3 yards per target) with two scores from Justin Fields compared to 22-of-37 (59.5%) targets for 280 yards (7.6 Y/T) with a touchdown from Andy Dalton. Mooney is an upside WR3 regardless of which quarterback starts.

Marquez Valdes-Scantling: Valdes-Scantling has seen 10 (4-123-1) and nine (4-50-0) targets over his past two games. With Randall Cobb dealing with a groin injury that may have him sidelined on Sunday, Valdes-Scantling stands to remain involved. While his targets carry high volatility, that many high-value targets coming from Rodgers are always something we are interested in swinging on as a boom-or-bust WR3/FLEX.

The Bears have also struggled to defend the deep ball, allowing a 47.5% completion rate on throws 15 yards or further downfield (28th) while they are allowing a league-high 9.4 yards per target to opposing wide receivers.

Tight End

Cole Kmet: Kmet caught 3-of-7 targets (17.5%) for 41 yards Sunday. Kmet now has at least seven targets in three of his past four games played but is still chasing his first touchdown on the season since the Bears continue to roll out Jimmy Graham in the red zone. As a byproduct of failing to score touchdowns, Kmet has just two TE1 scoring weeks on the season, which keeps him as a floor-based TE2.

Green Bay has allowed a 77.5% catch rate on tight end targets (30th), including allowing Kmet to catch 4-of-5 targets for 49 yards in Week 6.

More Week 14 Fantasy breakdowns from The Worksheet: