The Worksheet, a fantasy football overview by Rich Hribar, breaking down everything you need to know for the Week 1 Chicago Bears at Los Angeles Rams Sunday Night Football game.
| Chicago | Rank | @ | LA Rams | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.5 | Spread | -7.5 | ||
| 19 | Implied Total | 26 | ||
| 22.4 | 23 | Points/Gm | 23.3 | 22 |
| 23 | 13 | Points All./Gm | 19.3 | 2 |
| 64.2 | 16 | Plays/Gm | 67.2 | 5 |
| 64.4 | 15 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 62.1 | 5 |
| 5.1 | 27 | Off. Yards/Play | 5.5 | 19 |
| 5.4 | 10 | Def. Yards/Play | 4.7 | 1 |
| 37.73% | 27 | Rush% | 44.25% | 7 |
| 62.27% | 6 | Pass% | 55.75% | 26 |
| 43.20% | 24 | Opp. Rush % | 40.16% | 9 |
| 56.80% | 9 | Opp. Pass % | 59.84% | 24 |
- This will be the fourth straight season these teams have played in Prime Time, with those games featuring 34, 24, and 21 total points scored.
- Opponents scored on 28.7% of their possessions against the Rams last season, the lowest rate in the league.
- The Rams averaged 95.1 more yards from scrimmage per game than their opponents in 2020, the largest differential in the league.
- The Rams have just nine passing touchdowns from outside of the red zone over the past two seasons, which is tied for the fewest in the league.
- In 2020, the Rams had just five touchdown strikes through the air from outside of the red zone, ahead of only the Giants (four) and Bengals (three).
- Matthew Stafford himself has 17 touchdown passes from outside of the red zone the past two seasons.
- From a clean pocket, Andy Dalton averaged 6.8 yards per attempt in 2020, which was 37th in the league.
Trust = spike production for that player
Bust = down-week production for that player’s standards
Quarterback
Matthew Stafford: Stafford has had comparably good weaponry throughout his career to what the Rams currently offer, but Sean McVay is the best coach he has worked with while this will arguably be the best team Stafford has played for on paper entering a season over his career.
The Rams are offense screaming for positive regression to the mean while they are screaming to be more aggressive downfield as noted above.
Chicago was middle of the road in a number of passing metrics last season, ranking 18th in yards allowed per pass attempt (7.2 Y/A), 15th in completion rate (63.9%), 20th in passing points allowed per attempt (0.46), and 21st in touchdown rate (5.1%) allowed to quarterbacks. I also believe this secondary has a ton of question marks outside of Jaylon Johnson and Eddie Jackson. I have concerns the Bears offense does anything tangible to keep the Rams pressing the scoreboard, but Stafford is a solid floor-based fantasy option with larger upside should Chicago put up a fight.
Andy Dalton (BUST): Dalton will turn 34-years-old in October of the season, coming off completing 64.9% of his passes with 6.5 yards per pass attempt with the Cowboys last season. In nine starts for Dallas, Dalton averaged 14.9 fantasy points per game with an average scoring week as the QB19, posting one QB1 scoring week over those starts.
Trading a completely superior set of skill players for Chicago, Dalton will start out against a defense that ranked number one in passing points allowed per attempt (0.32) and passing points allowed per game (11.0) while arguably being placed behind one of the league’s worst offensive lines.
Running Back
David Montgomery (BUST): Montgomery produced 1,508 yards and 10 touchdowns (5.0 yards/touch) in 2020. After one RB1 scoring week and two touchdowns through nine games, Montgomery closed the season with six straight RB1 weeks and eight touchdowns with over 100 yards in each of those games.
The jump for Montgomery stemmed from a workload spike. He averaged 20.1 touches per game (seventh) and handled a league-high 89.1% of the Chicago backfield touches. Montgomery went from 25 catches as a rookie up to 54 in his second season as Tarik Cohen appeared in just three games. After Cohen was injured, Montgomery went from running a pass route on 37.8% of the team dropbacks up to 69.0%. With Cohen still out, Montgomery can run into a similar extended workload early in the season while still giving away some touches to Damien Williams.
The Rams’ defensive unit is a mismatch for this Chicago offensive line, though. The Rams were sixth in yards per carry allowed to backs last season (3.8 yards). When these teams met last year, Montgomery totaled 69 yards on 19 touches, which was 42% of the offensive touches.
Darrell Henderson: After a nearly invisible rookie season with 43 touches for 184 yards (4.3 yards per touch), Henderson jumped up to 154 touches for 783 yards (5.1 yards per touch) in 2020 with six touchdowns. For a period of the season early on, Henderson even took over as the feature back for Los Angeles before conceding ground to Cam Akers and reaching double-digit touches in just two of his final eight games played of the season.
With Akers suffering a season-ending injury, Henderson now vaults up to the top of the depth chart, but the addition of Sony Michel at least provides a viable threat to getting snaps more so than just entering the season with Jake Funk and Xavier Jones. The Rams also traded future picks for Michel. Even if they are later picks, they are still assets over signing a veteran off the street to come in as insurance.
Henderson had five games last season in which he received more than 12 touches. In those games, Henderson posted 95.6 yards from scrimmage per game and 15.9 PPR points per game. Even with Michel added, Henderson should still be expected to get to that threshold of touches, it just depends on if Michel threatens any money touches in the passing game or near the end zone.
Henderson did hit that number in this same matchup a year ago, totaling 17 touches for 77 yards (2-13 receiving) against Chicago in Week 7. The Bears were 18th in rushing points allowed per game to backs (12.9 points) in 2020 and 13th in yards allowed per carry (4.2 yards) to the position, while allowing Rams backs to carry 25 times for 121 yards and a touchdown when they played in Los Angeles. Henderson is an RB2/FLEX option to open the season as a home favorite.
Wide Receiver
Allen Robinson (BUST): Robinson has been the WR13 and WR11 in points per game the past two seasons. Showcasing his full-field target ability while staying on the field for 16 games the past two seasons, Robinson has over 150 targets in each of his past four full seasons played as he closed 202 ranking seventh at his position with 9.4 targets per game.
Even being down on Andy Dalton, you can actually make the argument that Dalton may be the best quarterback Robinson has played with, which is scary.
While everyone was excited in drawing a parallel to the trade of Anthony Miller meaning more for Darnell Mooney, what it really means is that Robinson is going to get a lot more run out of the slot this season in Chicago, surrounding a group of speedsters in Mooney, Marquise Goodwin, and Damiere Byrd stretching the field. Robinson ran just 28.9% of his routes from the slot in 2020 after hitting 40% in his first two seasons with the Bears.
He will need that added versatility here as Robinson has historically struggled in this matchup. In three games with the Bears facing the Rams the past three seasons, Robinson had game lines of just 5-42-0, 4-15-0, and 4-70-0. The Rams were second in the league in receiving yards per game allowed to opposing WR1 options (54.6 yards) and tied for the league-low in allowing just four touchdowns to those players as both cornerbacks Darious Williams (59.9) and Jalen Ramsey (73.0) were in the top-eight players at their positions in rating allowed in coverage.
Robert Woods and Cooper Kupp: In their 16 games played together this past season, Kupp actually out-targeted Woods 134-to-131 with 96 catches for 1,052 yards on those targets compared to 90 receptions for 947 yards for Woods.
But Kupp scored a career-low three touchdowns this season while Woods scored a career-high eight (six receiving) in creating the fantasy scoring difference between the two. This came with both players each seeing the same amount of end zone targets (four) on the season.
The Bears only have one legitimate threat in coverage and that is Jaylon Johnson. Johnson played just nine coverage snaps all season in the slot in 2020, favoring Kupp, who has run over 60% of his routes from the slot in each of his four seasons in the league.
Woods also does get in the slot himself, so it is not as if he will face shadow coverage to hide from. Woods ran 48.9% of his routes from the slot last season, his second-highest rate since joining the Rams in 2017. When these teams met a year ago, Kupp posted a 6-43-0 line on six targets while Woods had 3-22-0 on five looks playing with Jared Goff. Treat both Rams wideouts as floor-based WR2 options, but I believe Kupp has an overall matchup advantage.
Darnell Mooney: Although he was the 24th rookie wide receiver selected last season in the draft, Mooney ended the season fifth among all rookies in receptions (61) and seventh in yardage (631 yards) to go along with four touchdowns.
As a 4.38 speedster, Mooney only averaged just 10.3 yards per reception as a rookie, however, because nobody could get him the ball downfield. Mooney received 23 targets on throws over 20 yards downfield (tied for 15th in the NFL), but connected on just four of those targets (17.4%). Just six were deemed catchable per Pro Football Focus (28.6%), which was 52nd in the league.
He still may have a catchable target issue with Dalton under center and deep shots may not be available behind this offensive line. The Rams allowed just two touchdowns all of 2020 on throws over 15 yards downfield, the fewest in the league, leaving Mooney as a better bench option and deep single-game DFS dart throw.
Tight End
Cole Kmet: Kmet only played 34.4% of the Chicago snaps through nine games, catching six passes over that span on eight targets. At that point, Chicago leaned into giving the rookie tight end more opportunity. For the rest of the season, Kmet played 84.6% of the team snaps, catching 22-of-36 targets (5.1 per game) for 164 yards and a touchdown.
Kmet only managed 8.7 yards per grab, so volume is important with big plays likely lacking with Dalton under center. The Rams were equally tough on tights and wideouts last season, ranking fifth in fantasy points allowed per target to the position (1.57). Kmet is a TE2 option.
Tyler Higbee: Higbee reverted to a timeshare role at the position with Gerald Everett in 2020, catching 44-of-60 targets for 521 yards and five touchdowns, three of which came in one game in Week 2.
The pros for Higbee as an upside play are that he has shown he is capable of a high ceiling when not splitting time with Everett (who left via free agency) as the TE1 in overall fantasy points the final four weeks of 2019 with Everett limited while also getting a quarterback upgrade in Matthew Stafford. When you look at the Rams pass catchers collectively, Higbee also stands out as their main clasher near the end zone.
The Bears were nothing special covering tight ends in 2020, ranking 18th in catch rate (68.3%), 14th in yards allowed per target (7.3 yards), and 25th in touchdown rate (8.2%) allowed to the position. Higbee is a lower-end TE1 option and stacking play in single-game DFS.
More Week 1 Fantasy breakdowns from The Worksheet:
DAL at TB | PHI at ATL | PIT at BUF | NYJ at CAR | MIN at CIN | SEA at IND | SF at DET | JAX at HOU | ARI at TEN | LAC at WFT | CLE at KC | GB at NO | MIA at NE | DEN at NYG | CHI at LAR | BAL at LVR