The Worksheet, a comprehensive fantasy football preview by Rich Hribar, breaks down everything you need to know about the Week 15 matchup between the Vikings and Bears on Monday Night Football.
Find a breakdown of every Week 15 NFL game in our Worksheet Hub.
| Chicago | Rank | @ | Minnesota | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0 | Spread | -7.0 | ||
| 18.25 | Implied Total | 25.25 | ||
| 19.5 | 24 | Points/Gm | 26.1 | 9 |
| 21.4 | 10 | Points All./Gm | 18.5 | 6 |
| 63.7 | 11 | Plays/Gm | 60.7 | 22 |
| 60.0 | 8 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 64.0 | 24 |
| 4.5 | 32 | Off. Yards/Play | 5.8 | 11 |
| 5.9 | 30 | Def. Yards/Play | 5.3 | 9 |
| 40.58% | 25 | Rush% | 45.50% | 13 |
| 59.42% | 8 | Pass% | 54.50% | 20 |
| 46.92% | 23 | Opp. Rush % | 35.22% | 1 |
| 53.08% | 10 | Opp. Pass % | 64.78% | 32 |
- Since their Week 7 bye, the Bears have 18 fewer plays of 20-plus yards than their opponents, the worst differential in the league.
- Chicago has allowed a league-high 6.6 yards per play since their Week 7 bye.
- The Bears have allowed a league-high 8.4 yards per passing play over that span.
- Minnesota averages 7.2 yards per passing play, which is sixth in the league.
- Over that same span, the Bears have been outscored by 71 points, 31st in the league.
- The Bears have scored first in one game this season, the fewest in the league.
- Minnesota has outscored opponents by 55 points (92-37) in the first quarter, the best differential in the league.
- Chicago has been outscored by 43 points (20-63) in the first quarter, 29th in the league.
- The Bears have scored on 23.9% of their drives on the road (last in the league) compared to 38.4% at home (19th).
Trust = spike production for that player
Quarterback
Sam Darnold: Darnold’s season has been full of high points, but he is coming off his best game on Sunday.
Darnold connected on 22-of-28 throws (78.6%) for 347 yards (12.4 Y/A) with 5 touchdowns.
Darnold has been a high-floor fantasy option, finishing lower than QB15 just twice.
He is in play as a QB1 here.
Darnold finished as a QB1 scorer in four straight games including a QB6 (21.1 points) scoring week when these teams played in Week 12.
The Chicago pass defense has been leaky since their Week 7 bye.
Over that span, they have allowed a league-high 9.3 yards per pass attempt and a 4.6% touchdown rate (18th).
Caleb Williams: Williams was 17-of-23 passing on Sunday but only threw for 134 yards (5.8 Y/A).
He did throw multiple passing touchdowns for the third straight game, but closing the week as QB17 (14.1 points) snapped a two-game streak finishing as a QB1 scorer.
Williams was the QB4 (26.9 points) when these teams played in Week 12, completing 32-of-47 passes for 340 yards and 2 touchdowns.
Williams threw both touchdowns in that game in the fourth quarter, completing a comeback.
Despite the success in the first matchup between these teams, I prefer Williams as an upside QB2 in single-game DFS versus streaming him in 1QB formats.
This offense has not played well on the road this season.
Williams has completed 57.9% of his passes (21st) for 5.9 Y/A (30th) and a 3.2% touchdown rate (27th) on the road this season.
An interesting note from the first matchup is that Minnesota only blitzed Williams on 21.8% of his dropbacks, their lowest rate in a game this season.
Their season blitz rate is 37.6%.
Williams was 9-of-11 for 155 yards (14.1 Y/A) with a touchdown when they did blitz, so it makes sense.
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Running Back
Aaron Jones (TRUST): Jones turned 15 touches into 84 yards and a touchdown on Sunday.
After ongoing fumbling issues entering the week, he handled 75% of the backfield touches.
The staff went right back to him as the feature back.
That is important here because this is a great rushing matchup attached to a spot as a home favorite with a high team total.
The Bears have struggled to slow down the run over the back half of the season.
Chicago allows 4.95 YPC to running backs (29th) and 17.6 rushing points per game (31st) to backfields.
They are 25th in points allowed per touch to running backs (0.91).
Over the past four weeks, they have allowed 156 yards and 3 touchdowns to the San Francisco backup running backs, 228 yards to the Detroit backfield, 147 yards and a touchdown to the Green Bay backs, and 154 yards and a touchdown to the Minnesota backs in Week 12, which included Jones turning 25 touches into 129 yards and a touchdown.
D’Andre Swift: Swift turned 15 touches into 40 yards on Sunday.
We were dreading this stretch for Swift, and the results have been as lackluster as expected.
In the past three games, Swift has rushed for 30, 39, and 38 yards.
When these played in Week 12, Swift rushed 13 times for 30 yards and caught 3 passes for 35 yards.
This is a tough spot for Swift as more than RB3/FLEX.
Minnesota is sixth in points allowed per touch to running backs (0.80).
Wide Receiver
Justin Jefferson: We have been waiting for a Jefferson blow-up game and circled last week as the spot to get it.
He came through with 7 receptions for 132 yards and 2 touchdowns.
Jefferson leads the NFL with 29.2% of his team targets and is fifth in the league in yards per route run (2.65).
Jefferson is a set-and-forget WR1.
How you handle this matchup only comes down to how you handle him in DFS.
He only caught 2-of-5 targets for 27 yards when these teams played in Week 12.
He did have a long touchdown called back in that game.
The Bears are second in the league in points allowed to WR1 targets (11.7), but they just had issues slowing down Jauan Jennings (7-90-2) last week.
Jefferson still has promising splits based on the matchup if you can get past Week 12 being an anomaly.
The Bears are third in the league using Cover 3 (44.9%).
Jefferson leads the team with 29.9% of the targets and has 3.08 yards per route run against Cover 3 this season.
Jordan Addison: Addison delivered another spike week on Sunday, catching 8-of-12 targets for 133 yards and 3 touchdowns.
Addison has reached the end zone in three of his past four games and has started consistently drawing targets over being dependent on scoring.
Addison has 20% or more of the team targets in four straight games.
When these teams played in Week 12, Addison grabbed 8-of-9 targets for 162 yards and a touchdown.
Addison is still volatile (he was just WR46 in Week 13) but is an upside WR2/WR3.
We are not expecting Addison to run back that line from Week 12 here, especially since Jefferson has such a low bar for being better in Round 2.
Still, Addison also has significant splits against Cover 3, something we noted going into last week’s matchup.
Addison leads the team with 3.24 yards per route against Cover 3 with 3 of his 7 touchdowns coming against those looks.
D.J. Moore: Moore caught 6-of-8 targets for 49 yards in San Francisco.
While the yardage was mild, Moore did see 33.3% of the team targets.
Since the team moved on from Shane Waldron, he has drawn 27.5% of the team targets, finding a higher floor over the past four weeks.
Moore has finished as a WR3 or better in all four games.
With the expected passing volume in this matchup, Moore is a floor-based WR3/FLEX with added upside if Williams can come close to matching his efficiency from the first matchup.
When these teams played in Week 12, he caught all seven targets for 106 yards and a touchdown.
Wide receivers have scored 57.9% of the fantasy points allowed by Minnesota, the second-highest share in the league.
Keenan Allen: After providing gamers with his best two weeks of the fantasy season, Allen only managed to catch 3-of-5 targets for 30 yards against the 49ers.
One Chicago wide receiver is seemingly left out each week. Last week, it was Allen.
Allen is still without a 100-yard game, and Sunday was the ninth time that he was held below 50 yards receiving.
He does not have a game with double-digit fantasy points this season without a touchdown.
Allen is in that same WR3/FLEX department.
He did post a season-high 86 yards when these teams played in Week 12, catching 9-of-15 targets with 2 touchdowns.
He gets another favorable matchup for slot receivers.
Minnesota is 30th in points allowed to slot receivers (16.0 per game).
Rome Odunze: Odunze secured 4-of-5 targets for 42 yards and a pair of touchdowns on Sunday.
It was his first touchdown grab since Week 3.
As with Allen, Odunze has only reached 50 yards receiving in three games this year, so he still takes a step of faith as more than a boom-or-bust FLEX.
Odunze has drawn viable target opportunities.
He has 20% or more of the team targets in four of his past five games.
What has hurt Odunze is that a team-high 28.4% of his targets have been inaccurate compared to 17.9% for Allen and 16.3% for Moore.
The rookie wideout grabbed 5-of-10 targets for 39 yards when these teams met in Week 12.
If looking for Odunze to cash in on a deep ball here, Minnesota has allowed 42% (21-of-50) of the deep targets to wide receivers to be completed, which is 28th in the league.
Tight End
T.J. Hockenson: Hockenson pulled in 4-of-5 targets for 45 yards on Sunday.
Since returning to the lineup, he has logged two TE1 scoring weeks over his six games.
There was not much left on the bone for Hockenson last week with Jefferson and Addison doing as much damage as they did.
What was lost in that outing was that Hockenson ran a route on 85.3% of the dropbacks, his highest rate in a game since he came back.
If that becomes a stable rate, that will give him more security as a back-end TE1.
This is a favorable matchup.
The Bears have had issues slowing down Iowa's finest tight ends lately.
Hockenson caught 7-of-9 targets for 114 yards when these teams played in Week 12.
Sam LaPorta then caught 2 touchdowns against the Bears in Week 13.
Then George Kittle turned 6 catches into 151 yards against them on Sunday.
One note about Hockenson’s game in the first matchup.
He had 2 catches for 12 yards through three quarters and appeared headed for another low-wattage outing.
He then went bonkers to close the game, catching 2 passes for 54 yards in the fourth quarter and then another three passes for 48 yards on the drive in overtime.
Cole Kmet: Kmet did not catch on Sunday.
He has 16 receptions over the seven games since the bye with 3 or fewer catches in six.
Kmet is only worth a look in single-game DFS.
The one week where he did draw targets was in the first matchup between these teams, catching 7-of-10 targets for 64 yards.
I don't expect this passing game to be as efficient in the rematch, but we should get plenty of dropbacks.
Minnesota is not a great matchup to chase, however.
They have allowed 6.8 yards per target (12th) and a 2.0% touchdown rate (3rd) to tight ends.
More Week 15 Fantasy Breakdowns From The Worksheet:
| Matchup | Time |
|---|---|
| Rams @ 49ers -- FREE | Thursday Night Football |
| Chiefs @ Browns | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Bengals @ Titans | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Commanders @ Saints | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Ravens @ Giants | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Cowboys @ Panthers | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Jets @ Jaguars | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Dolphins @ Texans | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Colts @ Broncos | Sunday -- 4:25 p.m. ET |
| Bills @ Lions | Sunday -- 4:25 p.m. ET |
| Steelers @ Eagles | Sunday -- 4:25 p.m. ET |
| Patriots @ Cardinals | Sunday -- 4:25 p.m. ET |
| Bucs @ Chargers | Sunday -- 4:25 p.m. ET |
| Packers @ Seahawks | Sunday Night Football |
| Bears @ Vikings -- FREE | Monday Night Football |
| Falcons @ Raiders -- FREE | Monday Night Football |