The Worksheet, a fantasy football overview by Rich Hribar, breaking down everything you need to know for the Week 5 Chicago Bears at Minnesota Vikings Sunday afternoon game.
| Chicago | Rank | @ | Minnesota | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Spread | -7 | ||
| 18.5 | Implied Total | 25.5 | ||
| 16 | 31 | Points/Gm | 21.5 | 15 |
| 19.3 | 11 | Points All./Gm | 20 | 12 |
| 54.8 | 31 | Plays/Gm | 63.5 | 15 |
| 62.8 | 16 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 65.5 | 23 |
| 5 | 26 | Off. Yards/Play | 5.4 | 17 |
| 5.6 | 17 | Def. Yards/Play | 6 | 26 |
| 62.10% | 1 | Rush% | 35.04% | 28 |
| 37.90% | 32 | Pass% | 64.96% | 5 |
| 56.97% | 32 | Opp. Rush % | 43.51% | 22 |
| 43.03% | 1 | Opp. Pass % | 56.49% | 11 |
- Games involving the Bears are averaging a league-low 117.5 combined offensive plays per game.
- 47.7% of the Chicago possessions have not gained a first down or resulted in a touchdown, the highest rate in the league.
- 20.5% of the Chicago passing plays have resulted in a first down or touchdown, the lowest rate in the league.
- The 390 team passing yards for Chicago are the fewest through the opening four games for a team since 2005.
- 70.0% (7-of-10) of the touchdowns allowed by the Vikings have come via rushing, the highest rate in the league.
- The Bears are allowing a league-high 6.1 yards per first down rushing play.
- 52.1% of the yardage allowed by the Bears has come via rushing, the highest rate in the league.
- 56.9% of the non-passing points allowed by the Bears have come via rushing, the only team over 50%.
Trust = spike production for that player
Quarterback
Kirk Cousins: Cousins has been up and down to open the season, closing as the QB11, QB26, QB9, and QB22.
Cousins is 22nd in EPA per dropback while sitting as the QB14 in expected fantasy points. That QB14 feels like the median of where he resides in overall expectations as well.
This is not a matchup to run away from. Chicago has only faced one decent fantasy quarterback so far this season in Aaron Rodgers, who completed 76% of his passes for 9.4 yards per attempt and two touchdowns in that game. In the other three games, the Bears have faced Trey Lance, Davis Mills, and Daniel Jones.
Any concern here comes from the way the Bears play offense, which has just nuked overall play volume for anyone facing them early in the season.
As noted, the Bears have faced a lot of bad offenses, so there is hope that will not be static as they face viable passing games. The Vikings are also third in the NFL in seconds per play, so this is a spot where we could see that increase. But if the Bears remain as poor as they have opened against the run, Cousins could also be more of a floor play as a higher-end QB2. With a high-scoring week as QB9 in the early season, that is only a stone’s throw away anyways.
