As part of the Sharp Football Draft Kit, Raymond Summerlin is posting a fantasy football preview for all 32 NFL teams.
This preview includes advanced stats, the fantasy football outlook for Joe Burrow, Ja'Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, Tyler Boyd, Joe Mixon, and every other notable Bengal, and in-depth analysis of the coaching staff, passing game, and rushing attack.
Find a link to every team preview in our Draft Kit Hub.
Highlights:
- The Bengals changed their approach in the passing game last season. Their average depth of target fell from 7.92 in 2021 to 6.81 last season. Cincy’s percentage of passes 15 yards or further down the field fell from 19% to 15.7%, and their yards per attempt dropped from 8.7 to 7.4.
- Joe Burrow's rushing bounced back in 2022. He averaged 16.1 yards per game and scored five touchdowns, right around his expected total given his usage.
- Joe Mixon was dreadfully inefficient despite leading the league in the percentage of carries against light boxes. He was 34th out of 42 qualifying backs in yards per carry (3.9), 20th in success rate (38.6%), and 36th in yards after contact per rush (2.6).
2022 Bengals Stats (NFL Rank):
- Points: 418 (8th)
- Total Offense: 5,768 (15th)
- Plays: 1,053 (17th)
- Offensive TDs: 49 (7th)
- Points Per Drive: 2.36 (5th)
- EPA+ Per Play: 8.1 (5th)
- Situation Neutral Pace: 30.59 seconds (11th)
2023 Bengals Coaching Staff:
- Head Coach: Zac Taylor
- Offensive Coordinator: Brian Callahan
Brian Callahan was a finalist for the Colts’ head job, but he will be back for his fifth season leading Cincinnati’s offense, although the plays will continue to be called by Zac Taylor.
That pair have combined to lead an offense that is sixth-best in EPA per play over the last two seasons.
Taylor gets a lot of flak for his play selection, but the Bengals are third in neutral pass rate over that span and four percent over their expected pass rate overall. Their pass rate was 10% over expected on first and 10 last season.
The Bengals also changed their approach in the passing game.
Their average depth of target fell from 7.92 in 2021 to 6.81 last season. Cincy’s percentage of passes 15 yards or further down the field fell from 19% to 15.7%, and their yards per attempt dropped from 8.7 to 7.4.
Even with those changes, the Bengals finished sixth in EPA per dropback.
This is a top offense that can support QB1 fantasy numbers for Joe Burrow, WR1 numbers for Ja’Marr Chase, WR2 numbers for Tee Higgins, and RB1 numbers for Joe Mixon if he can play better this season.
2022 Bengals Passing Stats:
- Dropbacks: 680 (8th)
- Neutral Pass Rate: 65.6% (1st)
- Pass Rate Over Expected: 7.6% (2nd)
- Pressure Rate Allowed: 16.7% (3rd)
- ESPN Pass Block Win Rate: 50% (30th)
2023 Bengals Passing Game Preview:
The Bengals will face the 13th-easiest passing schedule based on 2022 efficiency numbers.
- QB: Joe Burrow, Trevor Siemian
- WR: Ja’Marr Chase, Charlie Jones
- WR: Tee Higgins, Trenton Irwin
- WR: Tyler Boyd, Trent Taylor
- TE: Irv Smith, Drew Sample
Like the Chiefs, the Bengals found success against the NFL’s new defensive meta with shorter passing.
After averaging 8.3 air yards per attempt in his first two seasons, Joe Burrow averaged 6.8 in 2022.
His throws behind the line of scrimmage jumped to 25.1%, and the share of his attempts that traveled at least 20 yards fell to 8.3%
Even so, Burrow threw for 4,475 yards and 35 touchdowns.
His rushing also bounced back. He averaged 16.1 yards per game and scored five touchdowns, right around his expected total given his usage.
Burrow finished as the QB4 in per-game scoring and in a tier of his own between the elite three and the rest of the pack.
The quick passing helped keep the sack rate down, but the offensive line still struggled to consistently protect Burrow – 30th in ESPN’s pass block win rate.
Signing Orlando Brown and sliding Jonah Williams to right tackle makes the offensive line better on paper and could lead to more down the field passing this season.
Either way, Burrow is a fine pick among the top-five fantasy quarterbacks.
With the offense changing, Ja’Marr Chase’s usage changed as well.
Ja’Marr Chase Depth of Target in 2022:
| Year | Targets/Route | aDOT | Behind LOS % | 1-10 Yard % | 11-19 Yard % | 20+ Yard % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 22.2% | 12.6 | 12.7% | 47.0% | 19.5% | 23.4% |
| 2022 | 25.9% | 8.9 | 10.2% | 44.5% | 24.6% | 11.2% |
This change caused his yards per reception to fall from 18.0 as a rookie to 12.0 last season, but he was targeted 134 times in 12 games after seeing 128 in 17 games in 2021.
His targets per route jumped from 22.1% as a rookie to 26% last season.
Those targets raised his weekly floor – he scored fewer than eight half-PPR points five times in 2021 but zero times last season – and he still flashed his ceiling with five weekly top-five finishes.
Now being used like a clear alpha WR1, Chase and Justin Jefferson form a clear Tier 1 at the receiver position.
That change in usage for Chase was an issue for Tee Higgins last season.
Tee Higgins’ splits with Ja’Marr Chase:
| Conditions | Routes | Target/Route | Team Target % | Yards/Route |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chase on the field | 498 | 18.3% | 16.5% | 1.60 |
| Without Chase | 155 | 25.2% | 26.9% | 2.46 |
Higgins is clearly a talented receiver. He has averaged 2.0 yards per route run and 9.3 yards per target thus far in his career.
He also carries WR1 contingency value if something happens to Chase. In four games without Chase last season, Higgins averaged 15.5 half-PPR points, which would have been the WR7 last season.
With Chase healthy, however, there are real concerns about Higgins’ usage after what Chase did last season, especially down the stretch.
Higgins looks overpriced in early fantasy drafts.
Tyler Boyd has settled into a steady 800 yards and four to five touchdown routine over the last three seasons.
Over that span, he has been a top-20 weekly scorer 12 times in 47 games. He has been outside the top 40 21 times.
Last season, he played five full games with either Chase or Higgins inactive – Higgins was never actually inactive but played zero snaps in two games, and Boyd played two snaps in Week 14.
His weekly finishes were WR67, WR28, WR32, WR55, and WR83.
This is a good passing game that will create spike weeks for Boyd, but knowing when those will happen is difficult, especially since it is not a given those good weeks will come when Chase and/or Higgins are sidelined.
It is difficult to argue against anyone going outside the top 50 at their position, especially a receiver on a good offense, but there are better upside bets to make in that area of the draft. Jameson Williams, Skyy Moore, Odell Beckham, and Nico Collins to name a few.
The Bengals brought in some interesting young receivers this offseason, most notably Charlie Jones, who have some Dynasty bench value given the contract uncertainty for Boyd and Higgins, who are both headed into the final year of their deals.
For redraft, however, it likely would take multiple injuries for any of the depth at receiver to get a real shot at fantasy value.
A former second-round pick, Irv Smith had a wholly disappointing four-year run with the Vikings. He finished with 91 catches for 858 yards and nine touchdowns total in four years with the team.
With Hayden Hurst gone, the Bengals took a chance on Smith’s draft capital, signing him to a one-year, $1.75 million contract.
Smith is an interesting fantasy case.
On the one hand, the Bengals were 30th in the league in tight end target rate last season (16.3%) and have an elite trio at receiver.
Also, in addition to the injuries he dealt with in Minnesota, Smith only managed 1.12 yards per route run with the Vikings, a number that would have ranked 32nd among qualifying tight ends last season.
On the other, he is the clear lead tight end in a great passing attack that trended toward shorter passing last season, and the talent that made him a second-round pick is still there.
He is a fine late-round flier in best ball formats and deeper redraft leagues.
2022 Bengals Rushing Stats:
- Rushing Attempts – Scrambles: 372 (30th)
- Yards Before Contact Per Attempt: 2.5 (23rd)
- Football Outsiders’ Adjusted Line Yards: 4.38 (16th)
- ESPN’s Run Block Win Rate: 72% (8th)
2023 Bengals Running Game Preview:
The Bengals will face the sixth-toughest rushing schedule based on 2022 efficiency numbers.
- RB: Joe Mixon, Chase Brown, Trayveon Williams, Chris Evans
- OL: Orlando Brown, Cordell Volson, Ted Karras, Alex Cappa, Jonah Williams
There were rumors all offseason the Bengals and Joe Mixon would end up parting ways, but that issue was resolved when Mixon took a $4.67 million pay cut in mid-July.
Mixon finished 2022 as the RB8 in per-game scoring, rushing for 814 yards and seven touchdowns while adding a 60-441-2 line through the air.
Looking under the hood, though, reveals things were not as great as those numbers make it appear.
On the fantasy side, Mixon’s final numbers were inflated by a five-touchdown game against the Panthers.
If Week 9 were removed from the equation for every player, Mixon would have finished as the RB18 in per-game scoring. It was that large a factor in his yearly output. That game was the only time he topped 18 half-PPR points all season.
That said, Mixon was a reliable RB2 performer in PPR and half-PPR leagues thanks to his catch totals. The spike weeks just were not there outside of the massive game against Carolina.
On the real football side, Mixon was dreadfully inefficient despite leading the league in the percentage of carries against light boxes.
He was 34th out of 42 qualifying backs in yards per carry (3.9), 20th in success rate (38.6%), and 36th in yards after contact per rush (2.6).
The Bengals were justified in asking him to take a pay cut.
There is good news, however.
Mixon actually has less competition for carries this season after Samaje Perine left for the Broncos.
Chase Brown is a rookie while Trayveon Williams and Chris Evans have a combined 90 career touches.
Mixon also went way under his expected touchdown total given his usage last season. Given the Bengals offense once again projects to be good, he could build on his nine total touchdowns from a year ago.
Mixon’s ADP is likely to rise now that his contract situation is resolved, but his current mid-RB2 price looks appealing.
As for the backups, Brown was a workhorse his final year at Illinois and tested well at the Combine.
He should have a good shot to win the No. 2 job, a role that had some value for Perine last season with Mixon missing two games.
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