Bengals vs Raiders Fantasy Football Worksheet, Week 11

The Worksheet, a fantasy football overview by Rich Hribar, breaking down everything you need to know for the Week 11 Cincinnati Bengals at Las Vegas Raiders Sunday afternoon game.

• Opponents have converted 75.0% (18-of-24) of the red zone possessions against the Raiders, the second-highest rate in the league. 
• The Bengals lead the league in touchdowns scored from outside of the red zone (13).
• The Raiders are third in the NFL in points allowed per pass attempt on throws 15 yards or further downfield (0.39) but are 30th in points allowed per attempt on throws underneath (.045).
• Joe Burrow leads the league in points per attempt on throws 15 yards or further downfield (1.06) while he is sixth in points per attempt underneath (0.45).
• Just 22.1% of the yardage gained by the Raiders has come via rushing, the lowest rate in the league.

Trust = spike production for that player

Quarterback

Joe Burrow: Burrow is coming out of the bye after his worst game of the season in Week 9 (7.3 points) the first time this season in which he not only failed to throw a touchdown pass but failed to throw multiple touchdown passes. Even with that down game, Burrow still leads the NFL in yards per completion (12.8 yards) entering Week 11. 

You surely have been beaten to death this week with how much Cover 3 the Raiders run as they lead the league in that deployment this season. Burrow has only thrown the ball 61 times (21.3% of his passes), but he has been hyper-efficient on those throws, completing 72.1% of his passes for 9.3 yards per pass attempt against Cover 3 this season, rates above his full season averages regardless of coverage. 

The one thing the Raiders don’t do is blitz, sending extra heat a league-low 11.7% of dropbacks. That is unfortunate because that is where Burrow thrives. When teams do not blitz, Burrow is completing 67.3% of his passes for 7.8 Y/A with 12 touchdowns and eight interceptions as opposed to a 70.7% completion rate, 11.5 Y/A and 11 touchdowns to three interceptions when teams do blitz. 

In Week 9 prior to the bye, the Browns only blitzed Burrow on 13.0% of his dropbacks, the lowest rate in a game this season and it was by far his worst game of the year. 

So here we have pulling splits where Burrow has been excellent against Cover 3, but also significantly better when teams allocate resources to the pass rush instead of pass coverage. Burrow has still posted 17 or more fantasy points in seven of his nine games this season, so he has enough built-in cache to be treated as a back-end QB1 option with weekly upside.

Derek Carr: Carr still made his way to 18.2 fantasy points last week, giving him 18 or more points in six of nine games this season. The loss of Henry Ruggs has impacted things in this offense as Carr’s depth of target has been 6.9 yards the past two weeks (24th in the league) as opposed to 9.3 yards prior (sixth in the league). 

The positive news for fantasy gamers is that the Raiders are one of the worst running teams in the league, coming into this week 30th in the league EPA running the football. That has aided Carr in dropping back to pass 42.0 times per game, which is sixth in the league. 

The Bengals are seventh in the league in passing points allowed per attempt (0.39) the best mark of an opponent Carr has faced this season. The positive news is that the only other top-10 team he has faced in that department is Denver, who he hit for 341 yards and 12.6 Y/A, although Ruggs was active for that game. Carr has held a high floor to keep in play as a viable QB2, but the matchup and the loss of a vertical threat give pause in locking in a ceiling expectation.

Running Back

Joe Mixon (TRUST): Since coming back to the lineup fully healthy in Week 6, Mixon has been a top-five scorer in three of his past four games. While he has scored six touchdowns in that span to raise all tides, the real area where Mixon has shown a huge improvement is seeing 16 targets over that span with a least five targets in three of those four. This coming after seeing just 10 targets over his opening five games of the season. Mixon has 14 catches for 163 yards over this hot streak as opposed to eight catches for 31 yards through five weeks.

While those targets are vital to his ceiling, they still could be fragile as his routes run per dropback has not budged. He is just being targeted more. That is how we still ended up with a zero-target game peppered in that spike sample, which was, of course, his lowest-scoring game over that stretch. 

We want those targets to be sticky because the Raiders have been beaten up by backs all over the place, allowing 4.6 YPC to backs (24th) and 14.2 rushing points per game to backfields (21st) while also allowing 12.3 receiving points per game (24th) to the position. 

Josh Jacobs: Jacobs is coming off a season-low 36 total yards on Sunday night and he has yet to reach 100 total yards in a game yet this season. The one ray of sunshine for Jacobs, though, has been that he is averaging a career-high 3.3 receptions per game and has at least four catches four of his past six games. Jacobs is only averaging 6.5 yards per grab, but those catches have prevented him from bottoming completely out like in years past. 

That said, Jacobs is still a touchdown-dependent RB2 option. In his three games without a score, he has been the RB30, RB16, and RB34 while he has not yet posted a top-12 scoring week on the year. The Bengals were just beat up by Nick Chubb entering the bye week, but still are allowing 77.8 rushing yards per game to backs (ninth). But Cincinnati is allowing a league-high 7.8 catches per game to backfields to give Jacobs are pathway to still turning in a floor even if he fails to score.

Kenyan Drake: After three straight RB1 scoring weeks, Drake also flatlined on Sunday night, turning in six touches for 31 yards. In a game the Raiders played catch up in the second half, Drake ran a pass route on just 30% of the dropbacks, which was the same rate as Adrian Peterson in Week 10. Drake’s route rate was 20.7%, 25.7%, 50.0% in the three games prior, so Week 9 is looking like the outlier here.

We would love for Drake to get grips on a receiving role because of the receptions allowed to backs, but he is still a volatile FLEX option based on his unstable usage. 

Wide Receiver

Ja’Marr Chase: After running completely pure to open the year, Chase has had some natural regression due to variance. Heading into the bye, Chase posted games of 3-32-1 and 6-49-0, but still sustained high-end usage, seeing 27.3% and 31.7% of the targets in those games. Chase has had at least 20% of the team targets in every game but one this season and in each of his past seven games. 

The Raiders are 20th in points allowed per game to opposing WR1 (15.7 points), but they are 31st in receptions allowed per game to those options (6.7). Given his usage and upside, Chase is a WR1 in lineups. 

Tee Higgins: Higgins hasn’t crashed through a ceiling yet this season, but he has been back to being stable WR2, posting three straight games as the WR25 or higher with games of 7-62-0, 4-97-0, and 6-78-0. Higgins has not found the end zone since Week 2, but when looking at the wideouts on the team that have benefited the most on the limited sample of Cover 3 the Bengals have faced this year, Higgins leads the team in targets (14), catches (11), and air yards (171). The Raiders have a strong corner in Casey Hayward who plays 99% of his snaps on the perimeter and a near 50/50 split at left and right cornerback. The Bengals move both Chase and Higgins all over the formation, so there is no clear edge in avoiding Hayward coming in and leaving Higgins as a strong WR2 play that is due to find the end zone again sooner than later.

Tyler Boyd: Boyd is coming off his worst game of the year, catching 1-of-2 targets for 11 yards in Week 9 against the Browns. In the seven games the Bengals have had all three wideouts on the field, Boyd has one game higher than WR34 and it was the game in which he found the end zone in Week 8 against the Jets. He has also only scored double-digit points in two of those seven games, leaving him as a touchdown-dependent FLEX. 

Hunter Renfrow: Renfrow is coming off a season-high 26.5% of the targets on Sunday night, catching 7-of-9 targets for 46 yards and a touchdown. Renfrow has not had more than 58 yards in a game since Week 3 with a high of 77 on the season, but he has five or more catches in every game but one this season and at least seven catches in each of his past three games played. With Ruggs off the team, Renfrow has nine targets in each of the past two games, matching a season-high. With Renfrow as the most reliable wideout on the roster, he is a floor-based WR3 in PPR formats and FLEX play in non-PPR formats. 

Bryan Edwards: Edwards caught three passes for 88 yards and a score last week. It was his second touchdown over his past three games, but he was once again marginally involved, seeing just four targets (11.8%). Through nine games, Edwards has not cleared five targets or 16.0% of the team targets in any game, which is why he has three or fewer catches in every game but one this season. Edwards is still worth a look as a speculation stash since he is run a route on 79-of-88 dropbacks without Ruggs, but his usage is not remotely reliable to swing on outside of blind faith.

Tight End

Darren Waller: Waller secured just 4-of-7 targets for 24 yards on Sunday night, his lowest yardage total on the season. He did have a touchdown come off the board due to penalty, but it was the fifth time in six games where Waller did not close inside of the top-10 at the position. Despite the results, Waller still commanded 20.6% of the team targets (sixth among tight ends in Week 10) and has at least 20% of the team looks in each of his past five games. The results have not followed the usage, but his opportunity remains one of the best at his position. 

Waller will look to get back on track against a Cincinnati team allowing 6.8 yards per target (12th) to tight ends and have allowed just three TE1 weeks on the season. Of the viable options they have faced, T.J. Hockenson (8-74-0) and Mark Andrews (3-48-0) are the standout options that have gone against them this season. 

C.J. Uzomah: In In his six games without a touchdown, Uzomah now has 25.2 combined PPR points while he is only TE1 scoring weeks were his massive spike weeks at the TE1 in overall scoring. Uzomah has just one game reaching six targets in a game this season, but the Raiders at least provide matchup appeal if you need it. Las Vegas is facing 9.2 targets per game to opposing tight ends (31st) while allowing 6.7 catches per game (31st) to the position. Uzomah is a touchdown-dependent TE2, but at least you also have the matchup on your side if chasing out of the bye.

More Week 11 Fantasy breakdowns from The Worksheet:

NE at ATL| GB at MIN | BAL at CHI | WFT at CAR | IND at BUF | DET at CLE | SF at JAX | HOU at TEN | MIA at NYJ | NO at PHI | CIN at LVR | ARI at SEA | DAL at KC | PIT at LAC | NYG at TB

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