The Worksheet, a fantasy football overview by Rich Hribar, breaking down everything you need to know for the Week 8 Cincinnati Bengals vs Los Angeles Rams Sunday afternoon game in London on October 27, 2019 at 1 pm ET.
| Cincinnati | Rank | @ | LA Rams | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Spread | -13 | ||
| 17.75 | Implied Total | 30.75 | ||
| 16.3 | 28 | Points/Gm | 27.1 | 8 |
| 26.6 | 25 | Points All./Gm | 23.4 | 19 |
| 62.6 | 19 | Plays/Gm | 67 | 4 |
| 67.4 | 27 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 64.7 | 20 |
| 29.2% | 32 | Rush% | 36.9% | 25 |
| 70.8% | 1 | Pass% | 63.1% | 8 |
| 53.6% | 31 | Opp. Rush % | 43.3% | 24 |
| 46.4% | 2 | Opp. Pass % | 56.7% | 9 |
- Since hiring Sean McVay, the Rams have a perfect 9-0 record against the AFC in the regular season.
- 43.9% of the yardage allowed by the Bengals has come via rushing, the highest rate in the league.
- Just 17.4% of the yardage gained by the Bengals has been from rushing, the lowest rate in the league.
- The Bengals’ negative-951 rushing yardage differential is the largest through seven games of a season in league history.
- The Bengals have allowed the highest rate of runs to gain five or more yards (44.4%) and rate to gain 10 or more yards (17.8%) in the league.
- The Rams backfield is averaging 91.4 yards from scrimmage per game, 30th in the league.
Trust (spike production for that player)
- Todd Gurley: The Rams reduced Gurley’s overall snap count coming back, but kept his usage high. He played a season-low 60.5% of the snaps in Week 7, but had a touch on 41.3% of his snaps, which was his second-highest rate in a game this season. 50.8% of Gurley’s fantasy output has come directly from touchdown production, which trails only Sony Michel (42.8%). He hasn’t had more than 70 yards from scrimmage in a game since Week 1, but the Bengals are a run-game elixir, allowing 10 top-15 scoring running backs in seven games.
- Jared Goff: We talked last week about stocking Goff’s splits versus pressure and non-pressure and they hit again. He gets another soft matchup here as the Bengals are 27th in pressure rate (19.4%) and sack rate (4.1%). The Bengals rank 26th in passing points allowed per attempt (0.51).
On the Cusp (proxy of a player’s average)
- Robert Woods: He’s still without a receiving touchdown on the season and has seen his target share dip recently. After receiving 22% or more of the targets in three of the opening four weeks, Woods has 18.4%, 16.7%, and 18.4% of the targets the past three weeks. The Bengals are still going to be without both of their starting boundary corners in William Jackson and Dre Kirkpatrick (see below).
- Brandin Cooks: He’s been a WR4 or lower in each of his past three games and the lack of the deep passing game has nuked Cooks’s target opportunities. He now has just 15.9% of the team targets on the season. That’s all an overall negative for the big-picture outlook, but this weekend we have to go back to the well as he’ll get replacement cornerbacks Tony McRae and B.W. Webb for 74% of his routes Sunday. McCrae allowed a perfect 158.3 passer rating in coverage last week, allowing 5-6 targets to be completed for 94 yards and a touchdown while Webb allowed 3-of-5 targets to be completed for 83 yards in coverage.
- Cooper Kupp: He’s had at least 21.1% of the team targets in every game this season. We knew he couldn’t keep up his torrid pace from Weeks 2-6, but Kupp is still the best bet for opportunity in this passing game. The Bengals are much more limited on the perimeter this week than inside, where they got Darqueze Dennard back a week ago. Both McRae and Webb had a bunch of issues while Dennard held his own a week ago, allowing the third-fewest yards per coverage snap in the slot in Week 7.
- Gerald Everett: Everett leads all tight ends in targets (26) and air yards (287) over the past three weeks while having the second-most yards after the catch (101). In terms of team context, his weighted opportunity trails only Mark Andrews and George Kittle over that span. The Bengals are 29th in yards per target (9.9) allowed to opposing tight ends.
Bust (down-week production for that player’s standards)
- Andy Dalton: Dalton has been a solid QB2 option this season in 2QB leagues, but not much of a streamer for 1QB leagues. His average scoring week has been the QB16 due to the high-passing volume and no running game. Dalton is the only quarterback that has accounted for 100% of his team's offensive touchdowns. The Rams lead the league in pressure rate (33.5%) and should be a major obstacle for Dalton elevating over that 2QB status this week.
- Joe Mixon: Mixon is strictly a FLEX option at this stage as he’s been an RB2 or better in just one game now through seven weeks. The Bengals run game is broken and Mixon has totaled just 12 rushing yards on 18 carries the past two weeks. To compound matters, Mixon has two or fewer receptions in five of seven games.
- Tyler Boyd: He’s been a WR4 or lower in four of his past five games and has just two top-30 scoring weeks on the season despite five games with double-digit targets. He still is without an end zone target while the Rams are 12th in defending slot wideouts on the season. Primary slot corner Nickell Robey-Coleman is second among all slot corners in yards allowed per coverage snap (0.46) this season while Boyd will find Jalen Ramsey for the majority of his 35% of boundary snaps.
- Auden Tate: Tate runs 30% of his routes in the slot, but as mentioned, that doesn’t help him a lot here while he’ll see his share of Ramsey when lining up at LWR.
If You Must (intriguing bench option or deeper league play)
- Alex Erickson: Erickson has been the WR31 (4-47) and WR6 (8-137) the past two weeks as he has 15.4% and 32.6% of the team targets. By default, Erickson runs into the better outlook in this matchup against Troy Hill at RWR, where he’s run 40% of his routes.
More Week 8 Fantasy breakdowns from The Worksheet:
WAS at MIN | PHI at BUF | CIN at LAR | SEA at ATL | NYJ at JAX | LAC at CHI | NYG at DET | DEN at IND | ARI at NO | TB at TEN | CAR at SF | OAK at HOU | CLE at NE | GB at KC | MIA at PIT