Last week we discussed how important it is to mix up exposure and take discounts from one best ball site to the next.
Unlike the running back position, where players go at similar ADPs regardless of site, there is a much wider variance at wide receiver after the top 15.
Are drafters taking discounts where they should, and are they accounting for the differences in sites?
Best Ball Fantasy Football: Everything You Need to Know
How to value wide receivers at each best ball site:
On Underdog Fantasy, the half-PPR format favors receivers who profile as touchdown scorers.
Between the tight end premium scoring pushing receivers down a bit and it being full PPR, finding straight ADP discounts at FFPC is not apples to apples. It is important to make sure the tight end position being pushed up is actually creating a discount.
On DraftKings, which is full PPR and offers bonuses for 100 yards receiving, there is value in being heavy on receivers early. That means a receiver with the same ADP at Underdog is actually discounted on DraftKings.
Keep in mind all those factors can be trumped by a strong ADP discount in an individual draft.
We do not want to avoid players on certain sites just because they might be cheaper elsewhere. I almost always look to take advantage of ADP discounts within a site first and these site discounts second.
The focus here is on receivers drafted in the top 10 rounds as discounts on receivers later are not as crucial to winning. Later draft picks should focus more on stacks and correlations than ADP advantages.
Discounted Best Ball Wide Receivers:
Most of the top 15 receivers are similar on each site, but there is a discount on A.J. Brown, who goes sixth on both FFPC and Underdog but ninth on DraftKings. Receivers who can earn the bonus are more valuable on DraftKings, making Brown a priority on that site.
The top three quarterbacks are also falling a bit, so there is a chance for a cheaper stack with Jalen Hurts, making that lineup a bit unique.
FFPC tends to be a site with savvy older drafters steeped in Dynasty, so older players sometimes slip more than they should. Davante Adams goes 10th there, four spots later than Underdog. That discount so early in the draft makes him more appealing as he can fall into the late second round.
DK Metcalf goes 15th on two sites but 20th on DraftKings. I am not a big fan of any of his ADPs with Jaxon Smith-Njigba now on the team. With his big spike week profile, however, I am willing to take the discount on DraftKings where he goes 20th.
Calvin Ridley goes 10 spots later on FFPC than the other two sites. That is a discount of about seven spots when considering only one tight end is going earlier than the other sites at that point.
Amari Cooper goes later on DraftKings than the other two sites. It isn’t a huge discount, but it is noteworthy considering I want more receivers early on DraftKings.
We get a six-to-seven pick discount on DeAndre Hopkins on FFPC, perhaps again because of a bit of ageism. That might not seem like a lot, but it is certainly worth keeping in mind early in drafts for those worried about where he might land.
Similarly, Jerry Jeudy goes 27th among receivers on DraftKings compared to 21st and 22nd on the other sites. As a guy who can earn the bonus on a site where it makes sense to be receiver heavy early, this is a nice discount.
The Chargers receivers are an interesting study. Mike Williams is much more touchdown-dependent, and Keenan Allen is much more valuable on full PPR sites.
Allen gets dinged a bit on Underdog but not enough for my liking. Both players are cheaper on FFPC including Williams being 20 picks later than Underdog, which is a bit of an over-correction. I like Justin Herbert this year, so FFPC is a great place for Chargers stacks.
Williams is toughest to click on DraftKings, where he is not a high target and reception player and goes six picks later than Underdog and 14 picks before FFPC.
There are doubts D.J. Moore is in a better situation this year, and the industry almost as a whole think his ADP is overpriced.
However, it is important to build “what if’s” into our thinking. What if Justin Fields improves and makes Moore his clear No. 1? In that case, Moore going as the 33rd receiver on DraftKings while 22nd and 26th on the other two sites is a great way to hedge.
DraftKings drafters are highly enthused about Christian Kirk as he is the 14th receiver there while being 27th on other sites, making him much less of a priority there.
With receiver pushed up the most on Underdog, when there is a big play and touchdown upside player going later there like Marquise Brown, that immediately becomes very intriguing. Especially with drafters going from not baking in Kyler Murray’s injury enough in early drafting to probably over-adjusting now, this is a great stack to consider there.
Mike Evans, who has been a touchdown machine in his career, is another player going later by comparison on Underdog when you consider all the factors.
Tyler Lockett goes latest on DraftKings, which is perfect for his profile. I love taking him there but he is likely undervalued on all three sites.
There is no player with a wider range of outcomes that I can remember at ADP than Kadarius Toney. It is understandable to be scared, but with such a wide range it is important to not miss out completely. The latest he comes off the board is 40th on DraftKings, so that is the best spot to take him. Also, look for him to fall in individual drafts on all three sites as well to maximize upside.
Cortland Sutton is a nice discount on Underdog vs the other two sites
Rookie Receiver Best Ball Discounts:
We talked in an earlier article about how rookie wide receivers in general are discounted. Let’s finish up with a bullet round on where you can get the best prices to fill out your portfolio
- Jaxon Smith-Njigba goes way too early on Underdog in comparison to the other two sites
- Jordan Addison goes as the 38th receiver on DraftKings and FFPC compared to 35th on Underdog. He goes the latest overall on FFPC
- Quentin Johnston is easily best drafted on DraftKings, where he is the 49th receiver compared to the 41st receiver on the other two sites.
- Zay Flowers is a value on DraftKings as well
- Jameson Williams isn’t a rookie but missed most of his rookie year. He also is a very good deal on DraftKings and a player I love mixing in there as he tends to be my fifth or even sixth receiver. That means I can access his elite late-season upside without hurting my chances of advancing nearly as much.
This is part of a best ball strategy series from expert best ball player Tod Burros.
