In this article, we will cover some thoughts on how to handle the running back position in the early rounds as well as how to balance our portfolio in traditional best ball tournaments like Best Ball Mania 4 at Underdog Fantasy.
It is very easy to get caught up in picking one to two favorite backs and go very deep on them. However, because the whole position is devalued and RBs are more likely to be injured, this can be a poor strategy.
Since the wide receiver dead zone is real in the double-digit rounds this year, trying to be different, while good in a few lineups, is a poor main strategy.
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Running Back Early-Round Strategy for Best Ball, 2023:
- Avoid first-round RBs as the opportunity cost is too high. If I am going to take Christian McCaffrey, Bijan Robinson, or Austin Ekeler, it will be when they fall a couple of spots. You can build a robust RB team to differentiate, but stop at four studs and try and make up the difference with WR volume.
- Take a lot of 2nd- and 3rd-round backs, but only one in each draft for a hero RB build. Nick Chubb, Jonathan Taylor, Saquon Barkley, Tony Pollard, and Rhamondre Stevenson are some of my favorites. The reason I like this strategy is you get the best running back on a team instead of the 2nd-best WR on good offenses, and I find the overall value of these RBs paired with a first-round stud receiver to give you a great start. I will sometimes take RB in the second and third to differentiate my portfolio, but I won’t pass on a stud QB like Lamar Jackson or a stud TE like Mark Andrews to do it.
- Mix in at least even weight exposure on the young gun RBs that have slipped to the fourth round — Jahmyr Gibbs and Travis Etienne – as they both have big upside. Some might include Najee Harris in this, but I am underweight on him. Joe Mixon has redone his contract, but at that ADP he is also similar to Harris. I don’t want zero Mixon, but I think I get better upside later.
- The fifth and sixth rounds are very rich with good options I mix in as my second running back. J.K. Dobbins, Aaron Jones, Kenneth Walker and for me, Dameon Pierce all have excellent upsides. Miles Sanders and Cam Akers are mix-in guys I want to be even with the field or close. Alexander Mattison is a heavy fade as he has been inefficient, and the current offense isn’t as RB-friendly as the former offense. I typically come out of this tier with two backs.
- I like David Montgomery a lot. If I don’t have two backs by the time I get to him, he is an easy add. Depending on the rest of the build, I am fine with him as a third RB. I want to be close to even on Isiah Pacheco. In half PPR, Rachaad White is a mix-in only, and I am a pretty heavy fade on James Conner preferring to take my third RB in the next tier of players.
- The last tier in the single digits is wide. I normally come out of this with at least 3 RBs.
- Dalvin Cook is mostly a fade unless he falls more. Sure, he could sign and his ADP could rise, but often we have seen guys in his situation end up somewhere in a committee as well. AJ Dillon needs an injury to match this ADP, and I would rather bet on Zach Charbonnet, who is in a similar situation.
- James Cook and Alvin Kamara are very interesting upside plays to mix or be slightly overweight on due to their spike week potential.
- Samaje Perine and Antonio Gibson are both guys I liked before their ADP rises and now are just mix-in guys in half PPR. In full PPR, I am still full ahead on Perine.
- Brian Robinson and Rashad Penny are two guys whose ADP has dropped. I am buying the drop on both. Robinson is a better back for half PPR than Gibson and is kind of boring but a good 3rd RB if the build fits. I have really come around on Penny. D’Andre Swift and Kenneth Gainwell really are very similar, leaving the explosive Penny a great opportunity to carve out a role behind the premier run blocking line in the league
As mentioned, this is a guide and my chance to inform you about who I am drafting and why. You can come out of this range with anywhere from one to four running backs and be fine, but most of the time I will have three.
I like late TE a lot this year, so I normally will have 1-2 QBs split about evenly between the two with 5-6 WRs. This sets me up well to work on my stacks and correlations for Week 17 and to take values as I finish the rest of my draft.
I do mix in some of the stud TEs as you have to. I am especially fond recently of Kyle Pitts as a post-hype guy and down on Dallas Goedert, who is the clear third option on his team and whose ADP gets pushed up by Jalen Hurts owners looking to stack.
The key point again is to avoid the first-round RB or be different when you take them, not load up too much on one of the great values as there are so many, and come out the back end of the single-digit rounds fairly balanced at QB, RB, and WR.
This is part of a best ball strategy series from expert best ball player Tod Burros.
