Best Ball Fantasy Strategy: How to Value Rookies

One of the absolute best times to draft is right now as there is a ton of camp news out there. We are getting a lot of blurbs about all players, but beat writers are especially prone to putting out thoughts on the rookie players.

In our last article on rookies, I prefaced that while you had to take some of the rookies, their ADPs were at or near their ceiling. The hope was that camp news would offer opportunity buys.

That hasn’t played out as hoped, but let’s go through some of the top rookies and their camp news and see if buying opportunities have shown up.

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The top two RBs, Bijan Robinson and Jahmyr Gibbs are either the same in Bijan’s case or in Gibbs' case slightly up since July. There was a nice buying opportunity on Gibbs in the fourth, but in half PPR he is a very tough click for me still in the third round. David Montgomery has been my Gibbs hedge all offseason, especially in half PPR, but he has also seen his ADP rise. I still like him at ADP in this format.
No discount on either Jaxon Smith-Njigba or Jordan Addison. Both have seen their ADPs rise during camp, making both tough clicks in half PPR. Still, it certainly doesn’t feel good to be so underweight on them.
Quentin Johnston has not seen the uptick in ADP but also has not gotten less expensive even though he was running behind Joshua Palmer early in camp. Going 2 rounds later than JSN, he is a player to mix in more often as the opportunity cost is less.
Zay Flowers is also moving up slightly but has the best opportunity of the bunch to lead his WR group in targets. He is another smart hedge if you want one of the top rookie WRs.
One rookie whose ADP has dropped almost two full rounds is Anthony Richardson. Nothing has changed as we knew he would battle for the starting job in camp and might not start the season as the No. 1 QB. We insisted we thought he would be the starter on Day 1 and still feel the same. His upside is tremendous, and while part of his ADP drop is an overall drop at the position, he is a great way to get some rookie exposure in drafts. Don’t feel the need to hedge and take three QBs in builds with Richardson any more than you would normally.
Devon Achane saw a slight drop in June and early July due to concerns about Dalvin Cook joining the Dolphins but has been running with the ones and showing why he is stronger than his size would indicate between the tackles while offering the home run speed we crave. He has moved up recently but is an excellent addition at ADP in tournament best ball.
Dalton Kincaid’s ADP has been troubling all along, and my strategy has been to only take him in Josh Allen builds. That possibly is a mistake. I still think in real action he is going to take some time to get going, and his ADP is rising, making him still a tough call with so many other talented TEs late. Sam LaPorta is also running as a starter and seeing his ADP rise.
Tank Bigsby has been a priority add all of July, and the news in camp has raised his ADP a lot as he is getting rave reviews not just with what we thought he could do but also as a pass catcher. As of this writing, we still advise taking him where he is.
Rashee Rice is rising but is still second string, and Justyn Ross' and Richie James' later ADP makes him a neutral value
Kendre Miller saw a drop in ADP in July, but with Alvin Kamara getting only a three-game suspension, one might think he has a tough road to relevance. He has three games to show he belongs and is a worthy late-round target to mix in.
Jonathan Mingo is a tough click as there are other rookie WRs much later to like. Not much camp news on him is not great either
The buying window on Marvin Mims appears to be over, but with the injury to Tim Patrick driving it, he still is a priority add with upside.
My love for Tyjae Spears is somewhat legendary, but he has not had the camp hype I expected. I have turned the jets off a little bit on him but still believe in him.
Jalin Hyatt's buying window is ending. He has been catching long TDs every day in camp. While not yet a starter, he is still going late enough and is explosive enough to be a buy up to the 15th round.
Lastly, there are a few rookie WRs to priority add while the window is still open. Michael Wilson, Puka Nacua, Josh Downs, and Tank Dell all are players who have juice and should have roles and the talent to pay off their late ADPs.
Similarly at tight end, Michael Mayer and Luke Musgrave are talented players and great third TEs to take a chance on in the last round.