One of the keys to being good at fantasy football is to not be set in our opinions of players and their situations, something that leads to overlooking when the value shifts based on changes to average draft position or ADP.
Sometimes players drop or rise based on good reasons. Other times, especially post draft until camps open, changes to ADP are based on frivolous things like one blurb from a beat reporter.
We talk a lot about balancing our exposure due to the risk of injuries, so we want to consider these moves carefully as to whether we should start buying players we haven’t been drafting and slow down or stop on others we have been taking.
In this article I am going to go through ADP changes over the last 30 days, highlighting some of the bigger movers and whether those moves are justified or not, and whether perhaps it has opened or closed value opportunities in best ball drafts on Underdog Fantasy.
Best Ball Fantasy Football: Everything You Need to Know
Click here to get the Draft Kit for just $1!
Quarterback ADP Movers:
- Brock Purdy is up 20 spots in ADP based on reports that the health of his arm is heading in the right direction. He is still very cheap, but unfortunately, all his weapons are still very expensive. If you have one of those weapons, he is a no-brainer to me in three-QB builds but still hard to trust on two-QB teams
- Matt Stafford is up nine spots as he also has been healthy. He is still a great value and a no-brainer second QB if you have Cooper Kupp.
- Justin Fields is down four spots, but those spots are much earlier in the draft. He was a top-three QB after Week 5, and questions about his overall ability and whether he will continue to run have kept his ADP lower than his upside indicates. I strongly recommend being 2X on such an explosive player in tournament best ball.
- Anthony Richardson, Aaron Rodgers, and Dak Prescott all go in a tight range and are all down about four spots. Dak is my favorite of the three, but all three have the ability to counter the price on the top-tier QBs.
Running Back ADP Movers:
- Alexander Mattison continues his meteoric rise post Dalvin Cook In the sixth round, I have zero interest in a non-efficient player who averaged under 4.0 yards per carry each of the last two years.
- The extremely easy buy window on Kenneth Gainwell is shutting as he is up 19 spots. He is still a mix-in player, however.
- With speculation that Dalvin Cook signs in Miami, the ADP of both Raheem Mostert and Jeff Wilson are down 17 spots. Since tournaments on UnderDog are so top heavy, this opens up buying opportunities on both. Wilson’s ADP of 186 is especially interesting. Cook himself is down 11 spots but still is a tough button to push as we have seen veteran RBs be forced to sign into crowded backfields to get paid in the past.
- Antonio Gibson is up 15 spots and Brian Robinson is down five spots with no news of note to cause this. This has opened up a buying window for Robinson, who is the two down back much more likely to give you the touchdowns you want on UnderDog.
Wide Receiver ADP Movers:
- Most of the action at WR is on later players. Parris Campbell is up 36 picks! Correspondingly, Jalin Hyatt is down 21 picks and Wan’Dale Robinson is down 27. With so many Giants WRs available late, you can add one or two of them including Campbell on most teams and not feel bad about it. Hyatt is extremely interesting at this cost as he has a high upside profile and we often see rookies get chances late in the season.
- Tim Patrick is up 26 picks but still a good choice
- Romeo Doubs is up 17 spots based on minicamp blurbs. He is much less interesting to me at current ADP
- Josh Downs has fallen 25 spots mostly on concerns the Colts won’t pass much. He is interesting as again we have seen rookie receivers be the answer late in drafts, and he was getting positive minicamp news.
Tight End ADP Movers:
- Two of my highest rostered players at the position, Greg Dulcich and Mike Gesicki are up 10 spots in the last 30 days. I think there is still meat on the bone for both of them at current ADP. They were way too cheap before.
- Taysom Hill is up 16 spots. He obviously can give you big weeks, but a case can be made he played more last year because the team didn’t trust the upside of Andy Dalton and Jameis Winston. They paid to get Derek Carr, and there is a very good chance Hill sees his role diminish back to goal line only work. He is a mix-in player only
- Rookies Michael Mayer and Dalton Kincaid are down 11 and 8 spots. Mayer is VERY interesting going in the 17th or 18th rounds of drafts. Considered by many the #1 TE prospect, Mayer should be on the field a ton. Kincaid is still pricey and a guy to only mix in for the most part in Josh Allen
- Dalton Schultz is down five spots and sometimes drifts much further in drafts where he becomes very interesting!
We will check in again on ADP movers right after training camp as that tends to open up some very nice buying opportunities!
This is part of a best ball strategy series from expert best ball player Tod Burros.