The Sharp Football Analysis crew has been hard at work on the Sharp Fantasy Football Draft Kit, a premium resource packed with rankings, projections, tiers, team previews, and much, much more.
After diving deep into all 32 NFL teams, our fantasy football analysts are ready to answer an important question:
Who is the best fantasy football late-round value pick in 2023?
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Best Late-Round Value for Fantasy Football: Michael Wilson
There has been a steady drumbeat that Wilson is the WR2 in Arizona, and the preseason has done nothing to move us away from that as Wilson has played 100% of the snaps with Colt McCoy under center so far.
While Wilson may not be a sexy pick attached to the Arizona offense, we are getting a Day 2 draft pick that is going to be playing full-time for almost zero risk in terms of roster allocation.
We know that rookie and year-two wide receivers provide the most draft value.
Tack on that Kyler Murray could return earlier than many assume, and Arizona should have fertile game scripts for passing targets.
When Murray also does return, his mobility and scrambling should be reduced, forcing more pass attempts on those dropbacks.
Best Late-Round Value for Fantasy Football: Tyjae Spears
ADP is moving fast after the second preseason game, but there still remain some good values late in drafts.
My favorite whenever I can get him is still Tyjae Spears.
Even though he showed a little of why I have been so high on him all offseason, he still has an average draft position on Underdog Fantasy of 178.
People are underestimating how much of a built-in role he will have as he seems to be not only Derrick Henry‘s change of pace back, but it looks like he will be both the third down and possibly the two-minute back.
That should give him a decent floor from where he is being drafted because of how explosive he is.
He is also backing up Henry, who is not only near the wall for RBs age-wise but has more tread on his tire than the average back as well and has had recent injury concerns.
Should Henry go down or the team wants to limit his workload, Spears can absolutely crush and win your league for you.
Honorable mention goes to Jake Ferguson, who is still reasonably priced late.
Best Late-Round Value for Fantasy Football: Kenneth Gainwell
Kenneth Gainwell is with four other running backs listed as the RB1 on the Philadelphia Eagles depth chart. With opportunity knocking, Gainwell is one of my favorite late-round players to target.
Despite the depth chart currently being what it is, the Eagles offseason moves suggested the running back room would be spearheaded by Rashaad Penny and D’Andre Swift.
With neither back being able to play a full season in their careers, that is a faulty foundation that Gainwell should be able to crack.
One thing that jumps out is the percentage of rush attempts Gainwell received during the Eagles' postseason run last season.
In those three games, the Eagles back received 39.7% of the rushing attempts. That was a leap compared to the 14.4% of rushing attempts Gainewell had during the regular season.
Along with the percentage of carries in the postseason, among running backs with 20 or more rushing attempts during the playoffs, Gainwell was third in yards per carry with 5.5.
Going back to the 14.4% regular season rushing attempts, Gainwell did make good with the attempts provided to him. Along with averaging 2.74 yards after contact, Gainwell also had seven rushes of 10 or more yards.
He has also hauled in 56 receptions in his first two seasons in the NFL and averaged 7.5 yards per catch in the process.
Coupling all of this with Gainwell having an average draft position in the mid-to-late eleventh round, it becomes evident that the risk is worth the rewards.
Best Late-Round Value for Fantasy Football: Jaylen Warren
His ADP is sure to rise following a long touchdown run in the second preseason week, but Jaylen Warren remains one of the best late-round targets at running back.
The offseason tea leaves suggesting Warren could take more work from Najee Harris this season make perfect sense when looking at each back's performance last season.
Jaylen Warren 2022 Stats:
- 4.9 yards per carry
- 1.84 yards before contact per rush
- 3.08 yards after contact per rush
- 1.25 yards per route run
In the same offense and behind the same offensive line, Harris was demonstrably worse.
Najee Harris 2022 Stats:
- 3.8 yards per carry
- 1.07 yards before contact per rush
- 2.74 yards before contact per rush
- 0.77 yards per route run
The yards before contact number could be used to say the line blocked better for Warren, but that stat is in a lot of ways a running back stat. It more likely highlights Harris' lack of explosion.
8.3% of Harris' career runs have gained 10 or more yards. That would have ranked 33rd among 42 qualifying backs last season.
14.3% of Warren's carries went for at least 10 yards last season.
It is also possible to blame injury for Harris' lackluster performance, but those numbers are very similar to what he did as a rookie.
Warren is likely a better running back than Harris. Whether the Steelers recognize that and/or are willing to bench a former first-round pick remains to be seen, but betting on the more talented player makes sense in the later rounds.
This is a FREE PREVIEW of the Sharp Fantasy Football Draft Kit, one of the best resources to get you prepared for the 2023 fantasy football season.