The Sharp Football Analysis crew has been hard at work on the Sharp Fantasy Football Draft Kit, a premium resource packed with rankings, projections, tiers, team previews, and much, much more.
After diving deep into all 32 NFL teams, our fantasy football analysts are ready to answer an important question:
Who is the best fantasy football quarterback value pick in 2023?
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Best Quarterback Value for Fantasy Football: Geno Smith
Incorporating cost here, Geno Smith is my favorite quarterback when I am unable to land one of the premier options that can throw and run early in drafts. His QB15 overall cost is a gift.
I do not believe Smith’s 2022 season was a flash in the pan because he played well in relief the season prior as well. I believe he has a great grasp of this system and has the surrounding playmakers to flourish.
Only Patrick Mahomes matched Smith in games last season with multiple passing touchdowns (12), and he could throw even more this season. I just wrote about Seattle’s lack of red zone plays but highlighted how aggressively they were throwing the ball near the end zone. With more volume in that area of the field this season, the touchdowns could even spike into the mid-thirties.
Seattle did not draft a rookie quarterback to push him and also added Jaxon Smith-Njigba in the first round as another pass-catching weapon to go along with DK Metcalf, the perennially undervalued Tyler Lockett, and a viable sum of parts tight end unit.
Seattle used 11 personnel on just 63.0% of their passing plays in 2022, which was 26th in the league. Expect that rate to significantly rise in 2023, especially as the season progresses.
On top of that, Seattle also has an appealing schedule. Over the front half of the season, the Seahawks draw the Rams, Lions, Giants, and Cardinals. All of those are teams I project to struggle to defend the pass. Early-season matchups with the Lions and Bengals could be pinball games.
The early bye week (Week 5) and tough late-season draw of Dallas, San Francisco, and Philadelphia Weeks 14-16 are drawbacks, but Smith looks to be the best bang for your buck quarterback at this point in the summer.
Best Quarterback Value for Fantasy Football: Deshaun Watson
With the price of the top QBs through the roof, my favorite QB this year is Deshaun Watson, who in Houston showed the type of ceiling you pay for with the top quarterbacks.
After two years out of the game including not even practicing, Watson looked awful last season, and that has kept his ADP in check.
With a full offseason and practice, it is reasonable to expect Watson to flash some if not all of his form.
With strong weapons including three top-line players in Amari Cooper, David Njoku, and Elijah Moore, a positional deep threat in Donovan Peoples-Jones, and rumors the Browns want to pass more, Watson can give you top four results but is being drafted five to six rounds after the top four QBs.
Best Quarterback Value for Fantasy Football: Aaron Rodgers
Aaron Rodgers represents the best value at his position and therefore is my favorite quarterback in fantasy. In terms of his resume, Rodgers has finished as a top-12 quarterback in 11 of his 15 seasons as a starter.
Along with 12 seasons of 25+ touchdown passes, the veteran signal caller has thrown for 300 yards in 30.9% of his regular season starts.
Rodgers is now a member of the New York Jets.
Growing pains will be minimal as he is reunited with offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett. In the three seasons Hackett was the coordinator in Green Bay, Rodgers threw a staggering 111 touchdowns.
As it currently stands, Rodgers' average draft position is in the backend of the ninth round as the 12th quarterback off the board. He is the perfect option for those who wait at the position.
Best Quarterback Value for Fantasy Football: Anthony Richardson
Assuming that Anthony Richardson suits up for all 17 games, he offers the Konami floor on a weekly basis with the potential for spike weeks if he develops as a passer throughout the season.
Around his current ADP, Richardson is the only quarterback with elite rushing upside.
Underdog, which devalues quarterback passing, is the site where I target Richardson the most. The Shane Steichen offense has facilitated big rushing touchdown totals for Jalen Hurts in recent seasons, elevating Richardson's ceiling.
Richardson’s playoff schedule is very appealing with all three late-season games played indoors, including a match-up that features two weak defenses against the Raiders in Week 17.
Best Quarterback Value for Fantasy Football: Russell Wilson
Russell Wilson was the QB21 in fantasy points per game last season, but there were some positive signs on that front late in the year. He finished as the QB3, QB19, QB5, and QB1 over his final four games.
Two of those three performances were boosted by good rushing numbers – 4-57-0 and 4-27-2 – something that is no longer a big part of Wilson’s fantasy profile.
Over the first nine seasons of his career, Wilson averaged 31.3 rushing yards per game. Over the last two, he has averaged 15.9 including 18.5 rushing yards per game last season.
That rushing decline is not unexpected given Wilson’s age, but there are reasons to expect a bounceback.
Brees was never a runner, but Payton was infatuated with Taysom Hill, and Jameis Winston averaged 23.7 rushing yards per game in his one season with the coach despite 4.97 speed.
Even so, Wilson’s passing numbers will be more important to his fantasy value at this point in his career.
Perhaps Wilson is just cooked – he also was not good after his finger injury in 2021 – but it is tough to believe a 34-year-old quarterback who had been among the most accurate passers in the league all of a sudden became one of the least accurate.
Now he gets a major coaching upgrade in Sean Payton, a better offensive line, and still has a solid group of skill players around him.
Going as the QB18 in early drafts, he is the perfect late-round quarterback bet. If he hits, it is a massive advantage. If he doesn't, it is time to stream.
This is a FREE PREVIEW of the Sharp Fantasy Football Draft Kit, one of the best resources to get you prepared for the 2023 fantasy football season.