The Worksheet, a fantasy football overview by Rich Hribar, breaking down everything you need to know for the Week 6 Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs Sunday afternoon game.
| Buffalo | Rank | @ | Kansas City | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -2.5 | Spread | 2.5 | ||
| 28 | Implied Total | 25.5 | ||
| 30.4 | 2 | Points/Gm | 31.8 | 1 |
| 12.2 | 1 | Points All./Gm | 25 | 23 |
| 65.8 | 10 | Plays/Gm | 65.2 | 12 |
| 58.8 | 2 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 64.2 | 22 |
| 6.7 | 1 | Off. Yards/Play | 5.8 | 9 |
| 4.4 | 2 | Def. Yards/Play | 5.3 | 12 |
| 34.95% | 28 | Rush% | 39.26% | 18 |
| 65.05% | 5 | Pass% | 60.74% | 15 |
| 38.10% | 9 | Opp. Rush % | 32.09% | 1 |
| 61.90% | 24 | Opp. Pass % | 67.91% | 32 |
- The Bills have reached the red zone or scored prior on 47.2% of their drives, the highest rate in the league.
- The Chiefs have reached the red zone or scored prior on 46.2% of their possessions, second in the league.
- The Chiefs have scored on 50% of their drives (second in the NFL), but also have allowed opponents to score on 41.5% of their drives (27th).
- On 19 drives against the Chiefs in 2021, the Bills scored on 10 (52.6%) with nine touchdowns.
- In 2021, the Bills allowed the Chiefs to score on 57.1% of their drives with a touchdown on 33.3%. Against the rest of the league, Buffalo allowed a 27.7% scoring rate per drive and a 16.8% touchdown rate per drive.
- The Bills are averaging 141.4 more passing yards per game than their opponents, the most in the league. The next closest team (Tampa Bay) is at 78.2 yards.
- Buffalo has scored on 47.2% of their drives (third), but opponents have scored on 22.0% of their drives (second).
- Buffalo leads the league in third down conversion rate (55.7%) while the Chiefs rank second (52.5%).
- Patrick Mahomes is the league's highest rated passer on non-first downs needing seven or more yards (119.8), completing 44-of-65 (67.7%) passes for 637 yards (9.8 Y/A) with four touchdowns. Mahomes has also taken a league-low two sacks in those spots.
- Josh Allen is second in the league with a 114.1 rating in those same negative spots, completing 47-of-65 (72.3%) passes for 688 yards (10.6 Y/A) with four touchdowns (two interceptions).
Trust = spike production for that player
Quarterback
Josh Allen (TRUST): Allen has been a top-five scorer in every game this season, coming off his first week as the QB1 in overall scoring.
Last week we talked about Allen’s lowered depth of target being impacted by an injured Gabriel Davis, forcing low depth of target earners up the target tree. With a healthy Davis back in action last week, Allen led the league with a 13.5-yard depth of target while 32.3% of his passes were 20 or more yards downfield, also tops among passers in Week 5.
It is hard to see the Chiefs slowing Allen down. Kansas City is allowing 0.50 passing points per attempt (28th) while facing 41.0 pass attempts per game (31st). That combination has them allowing a league-high 20.7 passing points per game.
In two games against the Chiefs a year ago, Allen scored 36.5 and 37.9 fantasy points, throwing for 315 and 329 yards with seven touchdowns and zero interceptions.
