The Worksheet, a comprehensive fantasy football preview by Rich Hribar, breaks down everything you need to know about the Week 10 matchup between the Colts and Bills.
Find a breakdown of every Week 10 NFL game in our Worksheet Hub.
| Buffalo | Rank | @ | Indianapolis | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -4 | Spread | 4 | ||
| 25.5 | Implied Total | 21.5 | ||
| 28.9 | 4 | Points/Gm | 20.9 | 22 |
| 19.2 | 8 | Points All./Gm | 21.4 | 12 |
| 57.9 | 29 | Plays/Gm | 58 | 28 |
| 61.9 | 16 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 68.2 | 32 |
| 5.8 | 9 | Off. Yards/Play | 5.4 | 15 |
| 5.4 | 17 | Def. Yards/Play | 5.6 | 20 |
| 47.03% | 12 | Rush% | 45.02% | 16 |
| 52.97% | 21 | Pass% | 54.98% | 17 |
| 41.47% | 10 | Opp. Rush % | 49.35% | 29 |
| 58.53% | 23 | Opp. Pass % | 50.65% | 4 |
- The Colts had -15.4 EPA on offense last week, their worst rate in a game this season.
- On 236 plays with Joe Flacco on the field this season, the Colts average 5.0 yards per play.
- On 286 plays with Anthony Richardson on the field this season, the Colts average 5.8 yards per play.
- The Bills have scored a touchdown on 33% of their drives, trailing only the Ravens (35.4%) and Lions (34.1%).
- Buffalo leads the NFL with 16 drives that have started on the opponent's side of the field.
- Buffalo allows 3.4 scoring plays per game, which is fourth in the league.
Trust = spike production for that player
Quarterback
Josh Allen: Allen's game on Sunday was another disjointed one, but the results added up to another QB1 scoring week.
Allen was 12-of-19 for 4.2 yards per pass attempt with an interception in the first half on Sunday.
He then connected on 13-of-20 passes for 7.8 yards per attempt with 3 touchdowns after the break.
Allen has been a bit of a slow starter this season, averaging 6.5 Y/A in the first half of games (27th) compared to 9.0 Y/A in the second half (4th), but he has averaged 21.9 fantasy points per game over his past four and is up to QB5 in points per game on the season (20.1).
One minor quibble with Allen’s ceiling this season is that he has career-lows in rushing attempts (5.2) and yards (23.4) per game.
Allen is still a sturdy QB1, but those rates force him to be more efficient as a passer.
This matchup provides some unique splits for Allen.
Allen and the Bills see man coverage on 34.7% of his dropbacks, the third-highest rate in the league.
The Colts and Gus Bradley run a lot of zone coverage and Cover 3.
They are 29th in rate of man coverage (14.8%), third in rate of Cover 3 (43.7%), and ninth in use of Cover 2 (17.7%) on passing plays.
Allen leads the NFL with 13 passing touchdowns and a 14.3% touchdown rate against man coverage.
He has 161 dropbacks this season against zone coverage but has 0 touchdowns.
Allen has 97 dropbacks against Cover 3 this season without a touchdown pass, but his 72.9% completion rate is eighth.
He has only 20 dropbacks this season against Cover 2 and has not thrown a touchdown pass on any of them.
Joe Flacco: The Indianapolis passing game did not fare much better under Flacco on Sunday night.
He ended the week as QB32 (3.1 points) in scoring.
After completing 75% of his passes in his first start in Jacksonville for 8.2 yards per pass attempt, Flacco has completed 57.9% and 59.3% of his throws over his past two starts for 5.0 Y/A and 6.6 Y/A.
This has an eerily similar feel to what we saw from Andy Dalton, who took advantage of a plush matchup in his first start and then had diminishing returns facing better defenses.
Flacco runs into another matchup here that does him no favors as a QB2.
Buffalo is eighth in passing points allowed per attempt (0.358).
They have allowed multiple passing touchdowns in only two games, and the only QB1 scoring week they have allowed was to Lamar Jackson.
Running Back
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More Week 10 Fantasy Breakdowns From The Worksheet:
| Matchup | Time |
|---|---|
| Bengals @ Ravens -- FREE | Thursday Night Football |
| Giants @ Panthers | Sunday -- 9:30 a.m. ET |
| Patriots @ Bears | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Bills @ Colts | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Broncos @ Chiefs | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Falcons @ Saints | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| 49ers @ Bucs | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Steelers @ Commanders | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Vikings @ Jaguars | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Titans @ Chargers | Sunday -- 4:05 p.m. ET |
| Eagles @ Cowboys | Sunday -- 4:25 p.m. ET |
| Jets @ Cardinals | Sunday -- 4:25 p.m. ET |
| Lions @ Texans | Sunday Night Football |
| Dolphins @ Rams -- FREE | Monday Night Football |
