The Worksheet, a comprehensive fantasy football preview by Rich Hribar, breaks down everything you need to know about the Week 18 matchup between the Dolphins and Bills.
Find a breakdown of every Week 18 NFL game in our Worksheet Hub.
| Buffalo | Rank | @ | Miami | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -3.0 | Spread | 3.0 | ||
| 26.75 | Implied Total | 23.75 | ||
| 26.9 | 6 | Points/Gm | 30.1 | 1 |
| 18.6 | 4 | Points All./Gm | 23.1 | 21 |
| 64.9 | 9 | Plays/Gm | 62.8 | 18 |
| 60.4 | 5 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 61.3 | 9 |
| 5.7 | 5 | Off. Yards/Play | 6.5 | 2 |
| 5.1 | 12 | Def. Yards/Play | 5.0 | 9 |
| 45.86% | 7 | Rush% | 43.38% | 12 |
| 54.14% | 26 | Pass% | 56.62% | 21 |
| 40.23% | 9 | Opp. Rush % | 40.51% | 10 |
| 59.77% | 24 | Opp. Pass % | 59.49% | 23 |
Playoff Scenarios: This one carries all of the weight to close things out on the regular season.
Whoever wins this game will win the AFC East (Miami wins the division with a tie) and the No. 2 seed in the AFC.
Miami is in the playoffs no matter what. If they lose on Sunday night, they are the No. 6 seed in the AFC.
As wild as it sounds, Buffalo can go from playing for the division title and No. 2 seed to potentially not making the postseason if they lose.
While Buffalo can just take care of business with a win, a loss would make things dicey.
A Buffalo loss paired with a Texans or Colts win (no tie in this game), a Jaguars win, and a Steelers win would mean the Bills are out of the playoffs.
Those are the two cleanest outcomes that do not involve goofy things surrounding ties that are unlikely to occur, but for the sake of housekeeping…
Buffalo will be the No. 6 seed if they lose paired with a Jacksonville loss/tie and Pittsburgh loss/tie or Houston tie paired with a Pittsburgh loss/tie.
The Bills can also still end up as the No. 7 seed if they lose paired with the following:
- JAX win + HOU win + PIT loss/tie
- JAX win + IND win + PIT loss/tie
- JAX win + PIT win + IND tie
- JAX loss/tie + PIT win
Trust = spike production for that player
Quarterback
Josh Allen: There are multiple pulling threads here, but at the end of the day, Allen carries front-end QB1 appeal for fantasy football.
Allen is not playing great football entering this game.
After completing 50% (15-of-30) of his passes on Sunday, Allen has completed fewer than 60% of his throws five times over his past seven games.
Over that span, Allen has completed 57.1% of his passes, ahead of only Bryce Young (55.6%) among 33 qualified passers.
Allen only has nine touchdown passes and seven interceptions as well over that period. His 79.3 rating is 28th among that same group.
Through more of an advanced metrics lens, Allen’s EPA per dropback on passes ranks 15th (0.01), right below Gardner Minshew over that span.
His 41.8% success rate on throws ranks 19th.
For fantasy, Allen is averaging 11.9 passing points per game over that stretch as opposed to 16.8 passing points per game before.
The positive news for real and fake football is that Allen still comes with a spade as a runner.
Allen has nine rushing touchdowns over those seven weeks. He has multiple rushing touchdowns in each of his past two games. He has rushed for at least one touchdown in 12 of his past 14 games.
No quarterback has a higher EPA on scrambling dropbacks or designed runs over that same period than Allen (28.3). The next closest quarterback (Justin Fields) is at 17.9.
Allen’s rushing has anchored him from a fantasy stance.
He is still averaging 22.8 fantasy points per game over that same stretch with five QB1 scoring weeks.
Allen has also crushed the Dolphins. He has a 10-2 record as a starter versus Miami.
In those 12 games, he has thrown 34 touchdown passes with another five rushing touchdowns.
Allen has thrown multiple touchdown passes in every one of those 12 games, including throwing three or more touchdown passes in each of the past three matchups.
He is averaging 279.7 passing yards and 49.3 rushing yards per game.
In the past four matchups between these teams, Allen has thrown for 400, 304, 352, and 320 yards.
When these teams met in Week 4, Allen completed a season-high 84.0% of his passes for a season-high 12.8 yards per pass attempt. He threw four touchdown passes and rushed for another.
Miami has played better defensively over the back half of the season, but they are down multiple pieces on Sunday.
Most notably, they lost Bradley Chubb for the season.
They had already lost Jaelan Phillips for the season back in Week 12.
When both Phillips and Chubb have been on the field this season, Miami has pressured passers on 39.5% of their dropbacks.
With both off the field, that drops to 32.1%.
That is the difference between ranking No. 6 in pressure rate and ranking 28th over a full season.
That matters here because Miami’s success defensively stems from creating pressure.
When the Dolphins have not pressured the opposing passer, they have allowed a 75.8% completion rate (31st) and 7.6 yards per pass attempt (17th) with 16 touchdowns, five interceptions, and a 106.1 rating (28th).
When they have pressured the opposing passer, Miami has allowed a 47.5% completion rate (14th) and 6.3 Y/A with nine touchdowns and eight interceptions for a 66.1 rating (19th).
When Lamar Jackson was not pressured last week, he went 16-of-19 for 272 yards with four touchdown passes.
When Miami did not pressure Allen earlier in the season, Allen was 15-of-19 for 227 yards with three touchdowns.
To compound matters, Miami is also not expected to have Xavien Howard available for this game.
Tua Tagovailoa: Tua was the latest quarterback to run into the Baltimore buzzsaw.
He completed a season-low 57.9% of his passes for 6.2 yards per pass attempt. His only game with a lower yards per pass attempt was against Kansas City (5.7 Y/A).
In the second half of the game on Sunday, Tagovailoa was 8-of-12 for 54 yards (4.5 Y/A) with a touchdown and an interception.
For fantasy, Tua has now been a QB1 scorer in just one of his past six games. He has ended the past four weeks as the QB17 or lower in weekly scoring.
We are expecting Miami to potentially not have Jaylen Waddle (or at least a 100% version of Waddle) this week as he tries to come back from a high-ankle sprain. That leaves Tua once again as a QB2 for fantasy.
Tagovailoa has the inverse splits from Josh Allen in this matchup.
He is 1-5 as a starter versus the Bills, throwing five total touchdowns over those six games. In his three games in this rivalry attached to Mike McDaniel, Tua has four touchdowns.
In those games, he has finished as QB24 (11.4 points), QB12 (18.1 points), and QB18 (13.9 points).
The Buffalo defense has been put together with glue and bubble gum at points this season, but they have held it together.
Buffalo is fourth in passing points allowed per game (11.1), allowing 6.7 Y/A (ninth) and a 3.2% touchdown rate (fourth).
Buffalo played Cover-2 on a season-high 30.8% of passing plays when these teams met in Week 4. Their base rate of Cover-2 this season is 17.6%.
Going back to the two matchups last season, Buffalo was in Cover-2 for 24.1% of passing plays compared to an 18.7% base rate.
Tua did throw for 9.6 Y/A on those Cover-2 dropbacks in Week 4, connecting on 7-of-10 throws for 96 yards, but he also had an interception.
Running Back
James Cook: Cook pushed gamers into their fantasy playoffs with four straight RB1 games over Weeks 11-15.
Then he was the RB48 and RB49 the past two weeks.
Coming off 17 touches for 44 yards against New England, Cook has scored 10.4 fantasy points in the past two weeks.
After much to do about Joe Brady unlocking Cook in the passing game, Cook has three total receptions over the past three weeks.
If looking for a silver lining, Cook has accounted for 80.0% and 73.9% of the backfield touches the past two weeks, which are his first and third highest rates in a game this season.
This is a matchup where Buffalo has to get Cook back involved as a pass catcher.
Fantasy gamers need that to push Cook’s ceiling since Josh Allen soaks up so many money touches near the goal line for this offense.
Miami has allowed 3.91 YPC to running backs, ninth in the league.
The Dolphins have a 65.4% success rate against running back runs (12th).
But they are 20th in receiving yards allowed per game (33.4) and 30th in yards allowed per receptions to running backs (8.9).
30.8% of the targets to running backs against Miami have resulted in a first down or touchdown, 28th in the league.
Justice Hill had five catches for 64 yards and a touchdown last week against Miami.
When these teams played in Week 4, Cook only caught one pass, but it went for 48 yards.
Miami RBs: With Raheem Mostert inactive last week, Jeff Wilson led the backfield in snaps (34), but it was all De’Von Achane in the box score.
Achane out-touched Wilson 18-to-6. He rushed 14 times for 107 yards, catching 4-of-5 targets for 30 yards and a touchdown.
We will track Mostert’s availability for Sunday night.
If he returns, then Mostert is back on the table as a touchdown-centric fantasy option, but we should not anticipate him having a massive workload.
As much as Miami would love to win this division and play at home next week, preserving Mostert is likely a priority.
Mostert already has a career-high 234 touches at age 31, and they have a viable back in Achane that can alleviate the workload.
If Mostert does not play again, then Achane is the most appealing part of this offense for fantasy outside of Tyreek Hill.
Achane only touched the ball 11 times when these teams played in Week 4, producing 120 yards and two touchdowns on those limited opportunities.
Wide Receiver
Tyreek Hill: Hill left a lot of meat on the bone last weekend in Baltimore.
Dropping a surefire touchdown early in the game that forced Miami to kick a field goal, things got off on the wrong foot.
Hill ended up catching 6-of-12 targets for 76 yards.
The disappointing part was that he only had one catch for six yards in the second half.
The game completely fell apart for Miami, but Hill has now gone three straight games without 100 yards and three straight games without a touchdown.
He had not had back-to-back games without a touchdown or 100 yards this season until this stretch, although he did have 99 yards in Week 16.
The good news is that Hill still soaked up a team-high 12 targets (33.3%) and had 43.2% of the air yards.
Hill continued to see front-end usage with Jaylen Waddle sidelined.
No wide receiver has been targeted at a higher rate per route run than Hill this season (35.7%). With Waddle off the field, that rate spikes to 44.2%.
With the game tighter in the first half on Sunday, Hill was targeted 10 times on 23 routes (43.5%).
Expecting Waddle to miss this game or at best be limited due to an ankle injury, Hill will be the focal point of this passing game again.
On that type of usage, Hill can turn in a massive fantasy line against anyone.
Like most of the Miami options, Hill has not produced front-end output when these two teams have hooked up.
In four games against the Bills with Miami, Hill has posted games of 2-33-0 (four targets), 9-69-1 (13 targets), 7-69-0 (15 targets and playing with Skylar Thompson), and 3-58-0 on five targets when these teams played back in Week 4 this season.
Hill does move into the slot for 34.6% of his snaps.
That is an area where the Bills have been susceptible this season.
Against slot receivers, Buffalo is allowing 8.6 yards per target (26th) and a 5.7% touchdown rate (21st) as opposed to allowing 7.3 yards per target (sixth) and a 3.9% touchdown rate (12th) to receivers lined up outside.
Stefon Diggs: The lackluster runout continued for Diggs on Sunday, pulling in 4-of-7 targets for 26 yards.
Diggs has now been outside of the top-40 scoring wide receivers in fantasy in six of his past seven games.
Over his past seven games, Diggs is averaging 4.3 receptions for 37.4 yards per game with one touchdown.
Both Gabe Davis (312) and Khalil Shakir (282) have more receiving yards than Diggs (262) over that stretch.
The decline in Diggs’ production completely overlaps that same period discussed with Josh Allen’s passing drop off.
There is a chicken or egg question that arises from that overlap, but we inherently know that Buffalo has limited pass catchers outside of Diggs. If Diggs is not going, then Allen’s rate stats are going to suffer based on the limitations the ancillary pieces in this passing game have.
If you are counting on Allen having a huge passing game, then we also in all likelihood need a big game from Diggs.
In eight games against Miami with Buffalo, Diggs is averaging 6.1 catches for 87.1 yards per game with six touchdowns.
As bad as it has gone recently for Diggs, he has some paths to an upside outcome as a boom-or-bust fantasy option.
We saw last week that for as good as the Miami pass defense had been over the back half of the season, the depth here is still lacking.
Without Xavien Howard on the field, Eli Apple was forced to play 44 snaps, just the second time he has even played on defense since Week 8.
Apple proceeded to allow 104 yards and a touchdown in coverage.
If we can get Diggs in favorable matchups, he can beat these ancillary cornerbacks on the Miami side.
When these teams played in Week 4, Diggs caught 6-of-7 targets for 120 yards and three touchdowns. Diggs had Kader Kohou in the spin cycle all afternoon in that game.
Miami did not have Jalen Ramsey when these teams met in Week 4.
With Ramsey here, it will be interesting to see if Vic Fangio deploys him to try to limit Diggs and make the other Buffalo wideouts beat them.
If you are looking at that angle as probable, Diggs got the best of Ramsey a year ago in the season opener when Buffalo played in Los Angeles. In that game, Diggs had two catches for 63 yards and a 53-yard touchdown in Ramsey’s coverage.
Gabriel Davis: Last week was an objectively tough spot for Davis against New England.
He followed suit, catching 2-of-3 targets for 21 yards.
This matchup does not carry a huge signal schematically, but Davis will have a shot to make plays on Eli Apple or Justin Bethel if the Dolphins choose to deploy Jalen Ramsey to follow Stefon Diggs.
Ultimately, Davis will go as his touchdown production goes.
In Week 4, he only had three targets against Miami, but he caught all three for 61 yards and a touchdown.
When these teams met in the playoffs last year, Davis caught 6-of-9 targets for 113 yards and a touchdown.
Cedrick Wilson: Wilson caught 2-of-4 targets for 27 yards and his third touchdown of the season on Sunday.
While Wilson is dependent on getting into the end zone for fantasy gamers, if we do not see Jaylen Waddle play or he has limitations, Wilson has run a route on 90.6% of the team dropbacks with Waddle off the field over the past two weeks.
Khalil Shakir: Catching all four of his targets for 39 yards on Sunday, Shakir has not had more than 47 yards receiving in any of his past five games.
Since Dawson Knox returned in Week 14, Shakir has run a route on 69.4% of the team dropbacks.
Shakir is a touchdown-or-bust option for fantasy with Knox back on the field, but if you are chasing a touchdown here, Miami has allowed a 6.5% touchdown rate on targets to slot receivers, 29th in the league.
Tight End
Dalton Kincaid: Kincaid caught 4-of-7 targets for 87 yards on Sunday.
His line was anchored by a 51-yard catch on a vertical target, something we have not gotten enough of this season.
Kincaid is averaging 5.8 air yards per target (TE43) with 7.2% of his targets on throws 20 yards or further downfield (TE24).
He has just six of those targets this season.
In games that Dawson Knox has played, Kincaid is averaging 5.6 fantasy points per game with zero touchdowns compared to 14.1 points per game with both of his touchdowns in games that Knox missed or left early.
That includes catching 4-of-5 targets for 27 yards in this matchup in Week 4.
Kincaid is only an option for single-game DFS players.
Durham Smythe: Smythe is also only a viable option for single-game DFS players, but he has been active the past three weeks with Miami needing options to step up with Tyreek Hill missing Week 15 and Jaylen Waddle missing essentially the past two games.
Smythe has had games of 4-32-0, 5-56-0, and 3-54-0 over the past three games with those two wideouts missing action.
Smythe has 19 targets this season with both Hill and Waddle on the field and 21 targets with one of Hill or Waddle off the field.