As part of the Sharp Football Draft Kit, Raymond Summerlin is posting a fantasy football preview for all 32 NFL teams.
This preview includes advanced stats, the fantasy football outlook for Josh Allen, Stefon Diggs, Gabe Davis, Dalton Kincaid, James Cook, and every other notable Bill, and in-depth analysis of the coaching staff, passing game, and rushing attack.
Find a link to every team preview in our Draft Kit Hub.
Highlights:
- Stefon Diggs turned in an outstanding 2022, finishing with 108 catches for 1,429 yards and 11 touchdowns in 16 games. He was seventh among qualifying receivers in target share (27.9%), eighth in target per route rate (26.9%), and fifth in yards per route run (2.50). He was the overall WR5 and finished as the WR6 in points per game. Diggs has been a top-24 scorer in 32 of his 49 games since joining the Bills in 2020.
- Gabe Davis had a solid final line (48-836-7) and was second among qualifying receivers in yards per reception. As has been the case with his career, though, he struggled to consistently earn targets. He was targeted on 16% of his routes (69th) and earned 1.44 yards per route run (50th). His 16.9% target share ranked 37th despite running the 15th-most routes in the league.
- James Cook was near the top of the league in efficiency in his rookie season. His 6.2 yards per touch were fourth among running backs with at least 75 touches. He averaged 5.7 yards per carry (2nd) and 1.44 yards per route run (16th). Unfortunately, he finished with 110 total touches, had one game with more than 12 touches, and was the RB55 in per-game scoring.
2022 Bills Stats (NFL Rank):
*Note: Only played 16 games
- Points: 455 (4th)
- Total Offense: 6,361 (4th)
- Plays: 1,037 (23rd)
- Offensive TDs: 50 (5th)
- Points Per Drive: 2.52 (2nd)
- EPA+ Per Play: 11.1 (2nd)
- Situation Neutral Pace: 29.79 seconds (8th)
2023 Bills Coaching Staff:
- Head Coach: Sean McDermott
- Offensive Coordinator: Ken Dorsey
Despite both interviewing with other teams, OC Ken Dorsey and QBs coach Joe Brady will return to an offense that was at worst the third-best in the league last year.
Josh Allen deserves a lot of the credit for that performance – the offense did not hum quite as smoothly while he was dealing with an elbow injury – but it is promising Dorsey was able to keep the offense on track following the departure of Brian Daboll last offseason.
More promising for fantasy players, Buffalo’s situation-neutral pace and pass rate remained near the top of the league under the new coordinator.
With the system still in place and Allen back to full health, this will remain an offense to target in fantasy drafts.
2022 Bills Passing Stats:
- Dropbacks: 663 (9th)
- Neutral Pass Rate: 61.5% (3rd)
- Pass Rate Over Expected: 6.1% (3rd)
- Pressure Rate Allowed: 17.2% (4th)
- ESPN Pass Block Win Rate: 67% (4th)
2023 Bills Passing Game Preview:
The Bills will face the fifth-toughest passing schedule based on 2022 efficiency numbers.
- QB: Josh Allen, Kyle Allen
- WR: Stefon Diggs, Justin Shorter
- WR: Gabe Davis, Deonte Harty
- WR: Khalil Shakir, Trent Sherfield
- TE: Dawson Knox, Dalton Kincaid
Despite a Week 9 elbow injury that hampered him for several weeks if not the rest of the season, Josh Allen was still a fantasy force in 2022.
He threw for 4,283 yards and 35 touchdowns and ran for 762 yards and seven more scores. That rushing total was almost identical to his 763-6 line in 2021, and he did it in one fewer game.
He has rushed for at least six touchdowns in every season of his career
Over the last three seasons, Allen has finished as the QB2, QB1, and QB4 in fantasy points per game. He is the overall QB1 in points per game over that span.
The model modern fantasy quarterback, Allen finished as the QB3 in passing fantasy points per game and the QB4 in rushing fantasy points per game.
The offensive line could be better, and the Bills could use some other options behind Stefon Diggs. Even so, Allen sits in the clear top quarterback tier along with Patrick Mahomes and Jalen Hurts, and he has a good case to be the overall QB1.
As for Diggs, there was some spring drama about his relationship with the team, and he did skip some of the offseason program before returning for minicamp.
Diggs reportedly is upset with his “role in the offense and his voice in play-calling,” and those frustrations showed up on the sidelines late in Buffalo’s playoff loss last season.
Despite those issues, Diggs turned in an outstanding 2022, finishing with 108 catches for 1,429 yards and 11 touchdowns in 16 games.
He was seventh among qualifying receivers in target share (27.9%), eighth in target per route rate (26.9%), and fifth in yards per route run (2.50).
He was the overall WR5 and finished as the WR6 in points per game. He was a top-12 scorer in nine of his 16 games and top 24 in 11 games.
Diggs has been a top-24 scorer in 32 of his 49 games since joining the Bills in 2020.
While Diggs’ relationship with the team and his quarterback is a concern, Buffalo's only major addition of note in the passing game was Dalton Kincaid, a rookie tight end.
There is nothing standing in the way of Diggs once again seeing around 27% of the targets in an offense that routinely finishes near the top of the league in pass rate over expected.
Given Diggs’ first-round ADP and Allen’s spot among the top three quarterbacks, that duo represents one of the most expensive stacks this season.
Gabe Davis had a solid final line (48-836-7) and was second among qualifying receivers in yards per reception.
As has been the case with his career, though, he struggled to consistently earn targets. He was targeted on 16% of his routes (69th) and earned 1.44 yards per route run (50th).
Perhaps an early ankle injury hampered him, but both of those numbers are right at his career average.
His 16.9% target share ranked 37th despite running the 15th-most routes in the league.
Those inconsistent targets paired with his low catch rate but high yards per catch create a boom-or-bust player profile.
Davis had two top-10 weekly finishes last season, but he was outside the top 30 in 11 of his 15 games and the WR44 or lower in nine of those games.
So while he finished as the WR33 in per-game scoring, his usable weeks were few and far between.
The good news for him is the Bills did not add any significant competition on the outside, so Davis’ spot in two-wide sets and route total are not currently in danger.
*Preseason Update: Deonte Harty saw the most snaps as the No. 3 wide receiver in the second preseason game. He appears to be the favorite for that job and offers some fantasy upside given his big-play ability.
That could change if Davis continues to be inconsistent and the Bills get more than expected from sophomore Khalil Shakir or free-agent additions Deonte Harty and Trent Sherfield.
A fifth-round pick last year, Shakir only caught 10 of 20 targets for 161 yards and a touchdown, but he caught 5-of-7 targets for 91 yards in two playoff games.
He also was the subject of some beat writer love during the offseason program.
The same is true of Sherfield, however, who reportedly was “a favorite of Josh Allen’s” in offseason practices. He was the distant No. 3 in Miami last season.
Harty sat out most of 2022, but he posted a 36-570-3 line on 59 targets with the Saints back in 2021.
He was targeted on 28% of his routes that season and averaged 2.7 yards per route run.
He has only run 386 routes in his career, though, so everything here is a small sample.
If Davis struggles or the Diggs situation goes sour, someone in this trio could emerge as a fantasy option, but all three are likely competing with first-round TE Dalton Kincaid for snaps.
*Preseason Update: Dalton Kincaid played the majority of the snaps with the starters in the first preseason game, and the Bills showed 12 personnel more often than their 9.7% rate last season. Rookie tight ends are always a risk, but Kincaid will have big fantasy upside if he is a nearly every down player in an offense led by Josh Allen.
Speaking of the tight end situation, it is interesting the Bills invested a first-round pick in Kincaid just a handful of months after signing Dawson Knox to an extension.
Knox ran the fifth-most routes among tight ends last season, but he was targeted on just 13.8% of those (53rd among 74 tight ends with at least 100 routes) and averaged 1.1 yards per route run (37th).
It was not a down year, either. Those numbers are right around his career averages.
Kincaid was more of a big receiver in college, playing just 35.4% of his snaps inline. He was extremely efficient from the slot, averaging 2.52 yards per route run.
Buffalo used two tight ends on just 9.7% of their snaps last season (30th), and that rate has not been higher than 25% under Sean McDermott.
That will almost certainly change this season, especially given the lack of an established No. 3 receiver, but it is fair to wonder how much time these two will spend together on the field.
Given how inefficient Knox has been with his routes, any hit to that number is a death knell for his fantasy value.
But even if Knox plays just 50% of the snaps instead of 80%, it will be tough for Kincaid to return consistent value unless the Bills start playing with two tight ends at a much higher rate.
All of that is without even considering the usual difficulty rookie tight ends have adjusting to the NFL.
This situation could prove to be a fantasy headache all season even if Kincaid ends up as the better fantasy option.
2022 Bills Rushing Stats:
- Rushing Attempts – Scrambles: 373 (29th)
- Yards Before Contact Per Attempt: 3.7 (1st)
- Football Outsiders’ Adjusted Line Yards: 4.42 (13th)
- ESPN’s Run Block Win Rate: 71% (16th)
2023 Bills Running Game Preview:
The Bills will face the eighth-toughest rushing schedule based on 2022 efficiency numbers.
- RB: James Cook, Damien Harris, Latavius Murray, Nyheim Hines
- OL: Dion Dawkins, Connor McGovern, Mitch Morse, O’Cyrus Torrence, Spencer Brown
*Preseason Update: James Cook has operated as the clear lead back in the preseason. Touchdowns will remain a concern given Josh Allen‘s involvement around the goal-line and Damien Harris‘ ability there, but Cook's touch upside looks higher than it did in June.
James Cook‘s fantasy outlook is intriguing.
He was near the top of the league in efficiency in his rookie season. His 6.2 yards per touch were fourth among running backs with at least 75 touches. He averaged 5.7 yards per carry (2nd) and 1.44 yards per route run (16th).
Unfortunately, he finished with 110 total touches, had one game with more than 12 touches, and was the RB55 in per-game scoring.
The departure of Devin Singletary in free agency opened hope Cook will see an expanded role as a sophomore, but the Bills brought in both Damien Harris and Latavius Murray as potential goal-line threats.
Given Josh Allen is also an option around the goal line – he has handled 35 of the Bills’ 110 goal-to-go carries over the last three seasons – Cook could have a difficult time getting those high-value touches.
There is also some concern about target share.
Allen was right around the league average in RB target rate last season, but running backs have been the target on just 16.3% of his career throws. That would have ranked 25th last season.
Given Allen's play style — he was second in scrambles last season — it makes sense he would have a low RB target rate.
Cook was targeted on 25.6% of his routes last season, which is a good number, so maybe his presence will keep Allen throwing to his backs at a higher rate.
Cook was efficient as a rookie and plays in a great offense, but his touchdown upside is questionable and the Bills were reluctant to give him big workloads last season.
All of those factors make him a risk-reward selection in the middle rounds, but reports of him being “far-and-away” the top back in camp make that reward outcome enticing.
The other two will battle it out for the No. 2 job and potentially a valuable short-yardage role during training camp. Harris appears to be the early favorite for that role, and it should suit him well.
Despite seeing stacked boxes at the sixth-highest rate since entering the league, Harris averaged 4.7 yards per carry with the Patriots and had a 77.3% success rate on short-yardage carries.
Singletary rushed for 12 touchdowns over the last two seasons while handling 29 of 74 goal-to-go carries.
Especially if the Bills want to protect Allen a little bit, Harris should find himself in a quietly good fantasy role if he can win the short-yardage carries.
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