The Worksheet, a fantasy football overview by Rich Hribar, breaking down everything you need to know for the Week 10 Buffalo Bills at New York Jets Sunday afternoon game.
| Buffalo | Rank | @ | NY Jets | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -13 | Spread | 13 | ||
| 30.3 | Implied Total | 17.3 | ||
| 29.4 | 4 | Points/Gm | 18 | 27 |
| 14.8 | 1 | Points All./Gm | 31.4 | 32 |
| 68.8 | 2 | Plays/Gm | 63.4 | 17 |
| 58.5 | 1 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 67.6 | 29 |
| 5.7 | 16 | Off. Yards/Play | 5.2 | 25 |
| 4.5 | 1 | Def. Yards/Play | 6 | 29 |
| 39.27% | 20 | Rush% | 33.33% | 31 |
| 60.73% | 13 | Pass% | 66.67% | 2 |
| 38.25% | 9 | Opp. Rush % | 42.88% | 21 |
| 61.75% | 24 | Opp. Pass % | 57.12% | 12 |
- The Jets have been outscored by 107 points (151-44) in the first half this season, the lowest differential in the league.
- Buffalo has outscored opponents by 67 points (115-47) in the first half this season, the highest differential in the league.
- The Jets are allowing a league-high 4.6 red zone opportunities per game.
- 38.6% of the Buffalo receiving yardage has come after the catch, the lowest rate in the league.
- The Jets have allowed a league-high 1,241 yards after the catch.
- The Bills have allowed a league-low 664 yards after the catch.
- Opponents have converted a league-low 40.9% (9-of-22) of their red zone possessions for touchdowns against the Bills.
Quarterback
Josh Allen: Allen had one of the biggest letdowns of the season last week, positing just 9.6 points against the Jaguars. That was Allen’s lowest-scoring game in a full game played since Week 4 of the 2019 season.
Allen and the Bills have started to get a bit of the Kansas City treatment as teams are not respecting their run game and forcing the Bills to throw underneath. Allen has been the team’s leading rusher in three of the past four games. His depth of target the past two games has been 6.2 and 7.0 yards, his two lowest marks on the season after his previous low was 9.0 yards in a game. With the Bills producing next to no yards after the catch, this has led to Allen throwing for just 5.9 and 5.6 yards per pass attempt.
Buffalo running backs have combined for 54 carries and 182 yards (3.4 YPC) the past four weeks, so there is good reason for teams shifting to not honoring the run while devoting resources on the back end.
We also saw Allen reel off three straight top-five scoring weeks prior to last week’s letdown, so let’s not completely overreact to a small sample size in the result column, just something to monitor. The Jets have been a turnstile in all capacities defensively this season. They are 29th in completion rate (68.8%), 23rd in yards allowed per attempt (7.8 Y/A), and 24th in passing points allowed per attempt (0.48) to opposing passers. We will see if last week’s results and the approach teams are taking defending the Bills become a true trend, but Allen is still worth going back to as a QB1.