Jets vs. Bills Fantasy Football Worksheet, Week 6

The Worksheet, a comprehensive fantasy football preview by Rich Hribar, breaks down everything you need to know about the Week 6 matchup between the Jets and Bills on Monday Night Football.

Find a breakdown of every Week 6 NFL game in our Worksheet Hub.

Trust = spike production for that player

Quarterback

Josh Allen: Allen has been a boom-or-bust option to open the season.

He has led the position in fantasy points in two weeks this season.

In the other weeks, he has been QB26, QB28, and QB17.

Allen is coming off completing just 9-of-30 (30%) passes for 4.4 yards on Sunday. 

He has thrown for 180 or fewer yards in three games. 

Going back to last season, we saw this after Joe Brady took over.

Under Brady in 2023, Allen averaged 13.9 passing points per game, which would have ranked 18th over the entire season. 

He is averaging 14 passing points per game to open this season, 12th in the league.

The lack of weapons in this offense has been noticeable in the past two weeks. 

Allen made up the difference last season with a career-high 18 rushing touchdowns.

11 of those came in those games under Brady.

He ran for 2 scores in Week 1 but has not had a rushing score since.

Things do not get easier for Allen this week based on the matchup.

The Jets are 3rd in the league in passing points allowed per attempt (0.259) and 2nd in passing points allowed per game (7.3).

They have faced some bad quarterbacks but also held Brock Purdy to a QB24 week (10.3 points) and hot Sam Darnold to QB27 (4.3 points) this past week.

The Jets are getting pressure on 39.8% of dropbacks, 4th in the league.

Pressure has plagued Allen to open the year.

Under pressure, Allen has completed a league-low 36.4% of his passes (16-of-44).

Allen has been a QB1 scorer in five of his past six games against the Jets, and this defense has been among the best in the league. However, that all comes back to his rushing ability.

He has averaged 7.2 rushing points per game in those matchups. 

Allen did throw 3 touchdowns when these teams last played (under Brady) a year ago. The Jets had more or less quit on the season at that point, but we know Allen is still capable of a spike week against anyone, leaving him as the top boom-or-bust QB1 option in fantasy.

Aaron Rodgers: Rodgers has stumbled the past two weeks, ending as QB21 (11.6 points) and QB22 (11.8 points) against the Broncos and Bills.

Things do not get much better regarding the matchup, as the Bills are 10th in passing points allowed per game (11.4) and 8th in passing points allowed per attempt (0.329).

The Bills have only allowed one QB1 scorer on the year (Lamar Jackson) despite also facing Kyler Murray, Tua Tagovailoa, and C.J. Stroud as notable opponents (apologies to Trevor Lawrence).

Rodgers is a floor-based QB2 for fantasy purposes.

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Running Back

Breece Hall (TRUST): After scoring 18 or more PPR points in each of the first three games this season, Hall has been nearly non-existent the past two weeks.

Hall has rushed 19 times for 27 yards in the past two weeks.

Out of 28 running backs with 50 or more runs this year, Hall is 28th with 3 YPC.

He is also getting little help, averaging 0.05 yards before contact per rush, 27th among that group.

Hall still averages 2.98 yards after contact per rush (RB16), so he needs this offensive line to improve on opening lanes.

He faced a handful of opponents who thwarted the run in their other games as well (Titans, Broncos, and Vikings), but what has hurt Hall the most from a fantasy stance is that he only has 5 catches for 28 yards in the past two games.

Hall’s target share has decreased from the week prior in three straight games. 

That has had a significant impact on his floor for fantasy. 

After two weeks, Hall had 24.1% of the team targets (RB1).

Over the past three games, he has 11.1% (RB17).

I am placing faith in this offensive line and the receiving work rebounding, but this is Hall's best matchup this season.

Buffalo is 25th in yards allowed per carry to backfields (4.7 YPC).

They have allowed RB1 scoring weeks to Derrick Henry, James Conner, De’Von Achane, and Justice Hill. 

They allowed 134 yards and a touchdown to Cam Akers and Dare Ogunbowale this past week. 

Running backs have scored 47.8% of the fantasy points allowed by the Bills, 31st in the league.

Braelon Allen has a pulse here as a matchup-based FLEX as well. 

Bills RBs: James Cook miss most of practice this week with a toe injury, but he is expected to play on Monday Night.

He does have an added later of risk, potentially being limited or re-injury.

I would consider him a boom-or-bust RB2/FLEX this week.

Ray Davis and Ty Johnson could each see more work and this backfield be a timeshare (and you should grab one of these guys if available if you are holding onto Cook for Monday).

All of Cook’s peripheral stats align with last season, but he has added touchdowns this season.

Cook already has a career-high 4 rushing touchdowns (part of the reason for Allen’s dip in rushing scores to open the year) and is already one touchdown short of the 6 total touchdowns he scored last season.

The Jets allow 4.2 YPC to backs (11th) and 12th in receiving points allowed to backs (7.6 per game).

The last time these teams met, Cook rushed 17 times for 73 yards, catching 3 passes for 29 yards and a touchdown through the air.

Wide Receiver

Garrett Wilson: Gamers asked for more targets for Wilson, and they got plenty in London. 

Wilson was targeted 22 times against the Vikings, catching 13 for 101 yards and a touchdown.

We can pick nits about the quality of targets (27.3% were inaccurate) and the need for 22 targets to barely crack 100 yards, but the fantasy points cash the same.

Wilson only has one outright flop this season (Week 4), despite running through a tough schedule. 

This is another matchup where we gladly take an over-stuffed target share to float Wilson as a volume-based WR1.

The Bills are 4th in points allowed per game to opposing WR1 targets (11.2), although Nico Collins may have had something to say about that over a full game last week.

Wide receivers have scored 37.1% of the fantasy points allowed by the Bills, the lowest share in the league.

Allen Lazard: Lazard grabbed 4-of-10 targets for 34 yards and his fourth touchdown of the season in London.

55.1% of Lazard’s fantasy points are from touchdowns, the 2nd-highest touchdown dependency for a wide receiver.

In his two games without a touchdown, he has been the WR88 and WR44 in scoring.

Lazard is a touchdown-dependent WR4/FLEX, but he does lead the Jets with 3 end-zone targets on the season.

Mike Williams: Catching 2-of-4 targets for 25 yards, Williams has yet to crack the top 40 in any week this season.

He has been targeted on only 10.6% of his routes. 

Only one wide receiver (stick a pin that) has had more of his targets on go routes than Williams (42.9%).

Williams is only a single-game DFS option, but he did run a route on a season-high 80.7% of the team dropbacks in London. 

Bills WRs: Buffalo wideouts combined to catch 4-of-18 targets for 76 yards and a touchdown on Sunday. 

Without Khalil Shakir, Keon Coleman led the team with 26 routes (74.3%). 

He only caught 1-of-5 targets, but that one catch was a 49-yard catch and run for a touchdown. 

Coleman has only been targeted on 14.7% of his routes. 

43.8% of his targets have been go routes, the highest rate for any wide receiver with 100 or more routes on the season.

Mack Hollins led the wideouts with 6 targets, catching 2 for 27 yards.

Curtis Samuel was second in routes (23) but only caught 1-of-4 targets for zero yards.

We will follow up on Shakir’s status this week. 

When on the field, Shakir leads the team with 19.4% of the targets and 2.61 yards per route run, but he also only has 13.3% of the air yards (4th on the team) and trails Dalton Kincaid in target rate per route run (21.6%).

Shakir is the only wide receiver here who can be used as a FLEX, but we need to see him log full practices first.

The rest of this group is best left for single-game DFS.

The Jets have once again defended wideouts well this season.

New York is 2nd in points allowed per target (1.27) to wide receivers, with a 2.4% touchdown rate allowed (5th) to the position.

Tight End

Dalton Kincaid: Kincaid’s slow start continued on Sunday, catching 2-of-6 targets for 34 yards.

Kincaid was behind the defense for a potential 70-yard touchdown that Allen left flat and was broken up, but gamers are looking for actionable results now.

Kincaid has not hit 50 yards in a game this season.

While starving for results and building frustration is understandable, the peripheral usage here still looks good.

Kincaid ran a route on 80% of the dropbacks, his highest since Week 1.

He has been targeted on over 20% of his routes in four straight games.

He is second among all tight ends with a 27.3% team target share in the red zone.

Buffalo still hasn't had a wide receiver step up, leaving the door open for Kincaid to eventually turn his opportunities into counting stats.

All you can do is hang tight and hope this is the week that Kincaid gets there, but this matchup does not do us any favors.

The Jets have only allowed 5.8 yards per target to tight ends (8th) and have yet to allow a touchdown to the position. 

Tyler Conklin: Conklin pulled in 6-of-9 targets for 55 yards on Sunday, his second TE1 scoring week (this is all it takes) over his past three games.

Conklin has had six or more targets in three straight games.

He is 2nd among all tight ends in route participation rate (86.8%) but does not average a full yard per route (0.98).

Conklin is a floor-based streamer. 

Buffalo has smothered tight ends to open the year, allowing 4.8 yards per target to the position (third).

More Week 6 Fantasy Breakdowns From The Worksheet: