The Worksheet, a fantasy football overview by Rich Hribar, breaking down everything you need to know for the Week 16 Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots Sunday afternoon game.
| Buffalo | Rank | @ | New England | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2.5 | Spread | -2.5 | ||
| 20.5 | Implied Total | 23 | ||
| 28.1 | 5 | Points/Gm | 26.2 | 10 |
| 17.4 | 2 | Points All./Gm | 16.2 | 1 |
| 65.6 | 7 | Plays/Gm | 61.6 | 23 |
| 61.3 | 8 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 60.8 | 5 |
| 5.8 | 9 | Off. Yards/Play | 5.6 | 15 |
| 4.7 | 1 | Def. Yards/Play | 5.1 | 3 |
| 38.78% | 22 | Rush% | 46.23% | 7 |
| 61.22% | 11 | Pass% | 53.77% | 26 |
| 43.82% | 23 | Opp. Rush % | 44.18% | 24 |
| 56.18% | 10 | Opp. Pass % | 55.82% | 9 |
- The Bills (61.9%) and Patriots (61.8%) are first and second in the league in percentage of points score in their games this season.
- Buffalo (5.1 yards) and the Patriots (5.5 yards) are first and second in yards allowed per passing play.
- The Bills and Patriots are second and third in the league in scoring plays per game (4.9) on offense.
- The Bills are 10th in touchdown rate per scoring play (65.2%) while the Patriots are 31st (50.7%).
- 42.3% (11-of-26) of the touchdowns allowed by the Bills have come via passing, the lowest rate in the league.
- Buffalo is averaging 89.9 more yards per game than their opponent, the most in the league. More than 20 yards per game over the next closest team.
- The Bills are last in the league in percentage of yards gained after the catch (39.1%).
Quarterback
Josh Allen: Allen completed 55.9% of his passes for 6.2 yards per pass attempt on Sunday but tacked on three touchdown passes and 24 rushing yards to his totals to produced 20.8 fantasy points.
When these teams played in Week 13, Allen completed a season-low 50% of his passes for 4.8 Y/A, but it is hard to take away a ton from that game given the elements. Regardless of the elements, the Patriots are a tough draw, allowing 9.8 passing points per game (second) while allowing two QB1 scoring performances this season.
Allen has played six games against top-12 defenses in passing EPA this season outside of that New England game (the Patriots are first) and in those games, Allen has thrown for more than 6.2 yards per pass attempt just once.
Despite the reduced passing efficiency in those games, Allen was still a top-six scorer in four of them since he also threw multiple touchdown passes in five while averaging 7.2 rushing points per game in those contests, which still gives him QB1 upside despite having added volatility here due to the matchup and his passing output versus top passing defenses this season.
