The Worksheet, a comprehensive fantasy football preview by Rich Hribar, breaks down everything you need to know about the Week 5 matchup between the Broncos and Raiders.
Find a breakdown of every Week 5 NFL game in our Worksheet Hub.
| Buffalo | Rank | @ | Houston | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.0 | Spread | -1.0 | ||
| 23.0 | Implied Total | 24.0 | ||
| 30.5 | 2 | Points/Gm | 19.8 | 17 |
| 20.8 | 12 | Points All./Gm | 23.5 | 22 |
| 55.0 | 29 | Plays/Gm | 67.0 | 1 |
| 64.3 | 27 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 56.8 | 5 |
| 5.6 | 13 | Off. Yards/Play | 5.4 | 16 |
| 5.0 | 10 | Def. Yards/Play | 4.8 | 5 |
| 50.45% | 6 | Rush% | 38.06% | 28 |
| 49.55% | 27 | Pass% | 61.94% | 5 |
| 42.80% | 14 | Opp. Rush % | 42.29% | 12 |
| 57.20% | 19 | Opp. Pass % | 57.71% | 21 |
- Buffalo has turned the ball over on 4.9% of their possessions, third in the NFL.
- Houston has turned the ball over on 6.8% of their possessions, which is fourth in the league.
- The Bills are 3-of-12 (25%) on third and short (needing 3 or fewer yards), 31st in the league. They led the NFL with a 73.0% conversion rate on those plays in 2023.
- 29.2% of the Houston set of downs have resulted in a third and long (needing 7 or more yards), ahead of only the Giants (31.7%) and Browns (34.3%).
- 51.4% of the yardage allowed by Buffalo has come via passing, second in the league.
- 70.7% of the Houston yards have come via passing, which is sixth in the league.
Trust = spike production for that player
Quarterback
Josh Allen: Allen has been a roller-coaster ride to open the year, closing the opening month as QB1, QB26, QB1, and QB28 in weekly scoring.
Sunday night, the Bills just ran into a buzz saw in Baltimore.
Allen completed a season-low 55.2% of his passes for 6.2 yards per pass attempt, failing to throw a touchdown and only rushing for 21 yards.
This is a good week for Allen to bounce back as a front-end QB1, not only because of a potential shootout but because the Houston defense has performed below expectations to open the year.
They have allowed 6.3 yards per pass attempt (7th) due to a host of erratic passers (Anthony Richardson, Caleb Williams, and Trevor Lawrence).
Still, they have opened the year 26th in passing points allowed per attempt (0.474) and 20th in passing points allowed per game (13.9).
The Texans have allowed multiple passing touchdowns in three games.
On top of that, Houston is 23rd in rushing points allowed to quarterbacks early in the season, allowing 56 yards and a touchdown rushing to Richardson and 44 yards to Williams.
C.J. Stroud: Stroud had his best fantasy game of the early season on Sunday, throwing for a season-high 345 yards and 8.6 yards per pass attempt to go along with a pair of touchdowns.
He even added a season-high 17 rushing yards.
Through four games, Stroud has been the QB13 or higher in all but one game.
That back-end QB1 area is where he consistently lived as a rookie.
I am bumping him up a couple of spots from that for this game having shootout upside, but the Bills have been a worse run defense than pass defense to open the season.
Buffalo has opened the season against Kyler Murray, Tua Tagovailoa, Trevor Lawrence, and Lamar Jackson.
Jackson was the only one to throw for more than 6.0 yards per attempt, and they have allowed just 4 touchdown passes.
Stroud is a better pocket passer than any of those players, so there is give and take in both directions.
Buffalo is seventh in passing points allowed per attempt (0.309) and 12th in passing points allowed per game (10.4).
Running Back
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Learn MoreMore Week 5 Fantasy Breakdowns From The Worksheet:
| Matchup | Time |
|---|---|
| Bucs @ Falcons -- FREE | Thursday Night Football |
| Jets @ Vikings | Sunday -- 9:30 a.m. ET (London) |
| Panthers @ Bears | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Ravens @ Bengals | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Dolphins @ Patriots | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Browns @ Commanders | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Colts @ Jaguars | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Bills @ Texans | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Raiders @ Broncos | Sunday -- 4:05 p.m. ET |
| Cardinals @ 49ers | Sunday -- 4:05 p.m. ET |
| Packers @ Rams | Sunday -- 4:25 p.m. ET |
| Giants @ Seahawks | Sunday -- 4:25 p.m. ET |
| Cowboys @ Steelers | Sunday Night Football |
| Saints @ Chiefs -- FREE | Monday Night Football |