The Worksheet, a comprehensive fantasy football preview by Rich Hribar, breaks down everything you need to know about the Week 16 matchup between the Broncos and Chargers on Thursday Night Football.
Find a breakdown of every Week 16 NFL game in our Worksheet Hub.
| Denver | Rank | @ | LA Chargers | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3.0 | Spread | -3.0 | ||
| 19.75 | Implied Total | 22.75 | ||
| 24.0 | 10 | Points/Gm | 21.0 | 20 |
| 17.6 | 1 | Points All./Gm | 17.6 | 1 |
| 61.4 | 20 | Plays/Gm | 57.6 | 31 |
| 65.4 | 29 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 62.7 | 21 |
| 5.1 | 23 | Off. Yards/Play | 5.2 | 18 |
| 4.8 | 2 | Def. Yards/Play | 5.4 | 14 |
| 43.02% | 18 | Rush% | 44.98% | 13 |
| 56.98% | 15 | Pass% | 55.02% | 20 |
| 39.02% | 5 | Opp. Rush % | 42.48% | 14 |
| 60.98% | 28 | Opp. Pass % | 57.52% | 19 |
- The Chargers have averaged 95.7 fewer yards than their opponents over their past six games, which ranks them 30th in the league.
- The Chargers have a 39.0% success rate on passing plays over that span, 29th in the league.
- Over that stretch, the Chargers have a 55.5% success rate defensively (25th) after a 62.7% rate prior (4th).
- Denver has 133.3 defensive EPA this season, the most in the league. The second-placed team (Texans) has 82.3 EPA defensively.
- 52.3% of Denver's set of downs reach third down, 31st in the league.
- 51.3% of the Chargers' set of downs reach third down, 30th in the league.
- 17.1% of Denver's offensive plays have gained 10 or more yards, the lowest rate in the league.
- The Broncos are a league-best 10-3-1 against the spread including five straight covers, the longest ongoing streak in the league.
- Denver is 8-0 against teams with a losing record this season compared to 1-5 against teams with a winning record.
Trust = spike production for that player
Quarterback
Bo Nix: Nix is coming off one of his roughest starts of the season.
On Sunday against the Colts, Nix threw for just 3.9 yards per pass attempt, his fewest in a game since Week 4.
He threw for 130 yards.
He did throw 3 touchdowns but also added 3 interceptions.
He has thrown 5 interceptions over his past two games after throwing 2 interceptions over his previous 10 games.
Nix is a volatile QB2.
He has seven QB1 scoring weeks with another six weeks in the back half of weekly scoring.
He was the QB10 (20.7 points) when these teams met in Week 6.
That was a unique game in which Nix and the Broncos did little until the end.
Denver trailed 23-0 through three quarters.
At that point, Nix had completed 4-of-14 passes (28.6%) for 27 yards (1.9 Y/A).
He went 15-of-19 (78.9%) for 189 yards (9.9 Y/A) with 2 touchdowns in the final quarter with the Chargers giving up space in exchange for time ticking off the clock.
Nix has a low bar to clear in being better to open the game in this rematch.
The Chargers have taken a step back defensively and shown some vulnerability over the past several weeks.
They have allowed QB1 scoring weeks in four of their past six games, allowing 12 touchdown passes over that span after only allowing 7 touchdowns through eight games played.
Three of those players were Lamar Jackson (22.6 points), Joe Burrow (29 points), and Baker Mayfield (28 points), who have all had more fantasy consistency than Nix this season.
However, one was also Will Levis (19.1 points), who got there in the same fashion as Nix did back in Week 6 with late-game output.
Nix added 61 yards rushing in that first matchup, which has been the best part of his arsenal for 2QB gamers.
That has dried up of late.
Nix has 72 total rushing yards over his past seven games with a high of 23 yards.
Justin Herbert: Herbert has slowed down the past three weeks after a midseason hot stretch aided by rushing production.
Over his past three games, Herbert has finished QB31 (8 points), QB19 (13.7 points), and QB16 (13.8 points).
Over his past four games, Herbert has averaged 6.3 yards per pass attempt, which is 28th in the league.
Herbert is a floor-based option for 2QB gamers.
He was the QB18 (13.7 points) when these teams met in Week 6.
Denver appears to have avoided a significant injury to Patrick Surtain, who is expected to play on Thursday.
The Broncos are second in the NFL in passing points allowed per attempt (0.342), allowing 6.5 yards per pass attempt (2nd), 10.3 yards per completion (5th), and a 3.4% touchdown rate (4th).
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Running Back
Denver RBs: This remains an underwhelming backfield.
Jaleel McLaughlin led the way on Sunday with 10 touches for 34 yards.
Javonte Williams played the most snaps (33), turning 8 touches into 23 yards.
Audric Estime added 6 touches for 18 yards after McLaughlin was forced to leave the game with a quad injury.
That injury is expected to jeopardize McLaughlin’s availability for Thursday Night.
In that event, Williams and Estime would draw more opportunities, but neither is more than a touchdown-dependent FLEX play.
We also will see Blake Watson active if McLaughlin is absent.
Out of 36 running backs with 100 or more attempts, Williams ranked 35th with 3.5 yards per carry.
Williams has 18 attempts for 14 yards over his past three games.
The best thing for Williams is that the team trusts him in pass protection and near the end zone, giving him access to dump-offs in the passing game and the short-scoring opportunities this backfield does garner.
Although Estime has only 46 attempts this season, he has a 37% success rate and 3.35 yards after contact per rush compared to Williams' 33.8% success rate and 2.37 yards after contact.
This backfield combined for 74 yards on 16 touches in the first matchup between these teams.
Chargers RBs: From one ugly backfield to another.
Over the past three weeks, the Los Angeles backfield has combined for 25 total PPR points.
Gus Edwards has 24 touches for 91 yards over those games.
Kimani Vidal has 15 touches for 63 yards.
Outside of hoping for a touchdown here, there is not much to latch onto for fantasy gamers.
Vidal did play a season-high 32 snaps on Sunday compared to only 13 for Edwards, but Edwards still held an edge in touches 8 to 5.
Vidal did have 51 yards and a touchdown when these teams played in Week 6, catching a 38-yard touchdown on his first NFL touch.
Denver is third in allowing running backs 3.84 YPC but is 30th in receiving points allowed (11.4 per game) to backfields.
Wide Receiver
Courtland Sutton: Sutton only pulled in 3-of-9 targets for 32 yards on Sunday, but one of those was a 20-yard touchdown, his sixth receiving touchdown of the year.
Sutton is a volume-based WR2 due to some volatility with quarterback play, but his target opportunity and scoring ability have created a higher fantasy floor.
Sutton has been a top-30 scorer in seven straight games with three WR1 scoring weeks.
Over that stretch, Sutton averages 9.4 targets per game, good for WR8.
He has 28.3% of the team's targets (WR7) and 47.5% of the team’s air yards (WR2).
Sutton has accounted for 46.4% of Denver's end zone targets, which is WR4 on the season.
The Chargers have shown vulnerability outside.
They have allowed a 7.9% touchdown rate to opposing WR1 targets (27th) and 13.4 yards per catch (27th) to wide receivers.
Sutton caught 4-of-6 targets for 53 yards and a touchdown when these teams played in Week 6.
Ladd McConkey: After missing Week 14 due to knee and shoulder injuries, McConkey returned to the lineup on Sunday, catching 5-of-7 targets for 58 yards and a touchdown.
McConkey has been a top-24 scorer in four straight games played.
He has at least 5 receptions in seven of his past eight games.
McConkey is a floor-based option on the WR2/WR3 line, getting a boost in full-PPR formats.
He leads all rookie wide receivers with 2.33 yards per route run.
Playing 69.3% of his snaps in the slot allows him to work away from Patrick Surtain if Surtain is good to go.
Denver has defended slot receivers well, however, ranking seventh in points allowed (10.8 per game) to interior wide receivers.
They have allowed a league-low 0.9% touchdown rate to slot receivers.
In the first matchup between these teams, McConkey caught 4-of-8 targets for 43 yards.
Quentin Johnston: Johnston caught 5-of-10 targets for 45 yards and a touchdown on Sunday, his 8th touchdown of the year.
That has been the story with Johnston as a touchdown-or-bust WR4/FLEX.
He averages 15.9 points per game in his weeks with a touchdown compared to 3.5 points without a score.
37.4% of his fantasy points have been scored via touchdowns.
No wide receiver with as many fantasy points as Johnston has been as dependent on touchdowns.
Johnston caught 3-of-4 targets for 22 yards when these teams met in Week 6.
Denver WRs: This unit has become a weekly guessing game behind Sutton.
After Sutton ran a route on 97% of the dropbacks on Sunday, he was followed by Devaughn Vele (67.6%), Troy Franklin (48.6%), Marvin Mims, and Lil’Jordan Humphrey (32.4% each).
All of these wideouts are best left for single-game DFS.
After Vele found footing in this offense as a target earner, he has just 1 catch for 16 yards over his past two games.
Vele does have better splits against zone coverage, with a target on 21.5% of his routes against zone compared to 14.1% against man coverage.
He caught 4-of-6 targets for 78 yards when these teams played in Week 6.
Mims has been generating big plays and getting some work out of the backfield.
If McLaughlin cannot play, Mims may get some added routes out of the backfield.
He has played 25 backfield snaps over the past five games.
He leads all the wideouts with 2.02 yards per route run and has a target on a team-high 23.9% of his routes. He just does not run a lot of routes.
Tight End
Chargers TE: Stone Smartt received a more significant opportunity last week with Will Dissly sidelined, catching 5-of-6 targets for 50 yards.
He did lose a fumble, but Smartt has hit 50 yards in the past two weeks.
Dissly hit 50 yards in just two games.
Smartt ran a route on 70.3% of the dropbacks (TE16 in Week 15) with 18.8% of the team targets (TE11).
Dissly has been ruled out Thursday, but the issue with streaming Smarrt this week is that Hayden Hurst has been activated.
With Hurst expected to play and returning from a long layoff on a short week, I would expect there to be a snap share at the posiition.
That leaves both tight ends as single-game DFS dart throws.
Tight ends have 24.1% of the targets against the Broncos, 10th in the league.
However, Denver is second in the league in points allowed per target to tight ends (1.42) and allows a league-low 5.4 yards per target to the position.
More Week 16 Fantasy Breakdowns From The Worksheet:
| Matchup | Time |
|---|---|
| Broncos @ Chargers -- FREE | Thursday Night Football |
| Texans @ Chiefs -- FREE | Saturday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Steelers @ Ravens -- FREE | Saturday -- 4:30 p.m. ET |
| Giants @ Falcons | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Lions @ Bears | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Browns @ Bengals | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Titans @ Colts | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Rams @ Jets | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Eagles @ Commanders | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Cardinals @ Panthers | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Vikings @ Seahawks | Sunday -- 4:05 p.m. ET |
| Patriots @ Bills | Sunday -- 4:25 p.m. ET |
| Jaguars @ Raiders | Sunday -- 4:25 p.m. ET |
| 49ers @ Dolphins | Sunday -- 4:25 p.m. ET |
| Bucs @ Cowboys | Sunday Night Football |
| Saints @ Packers -- FREE | Monday Night Football |