The Worksheet, a comprehensive fantasy football preview by Rich Hribar, breaks down everything you need to know about the Week 6 matchup between the Chiefs and Broncos on Thursday Night Football.
Find a breakdown of every Week 6 NFL game in our Worksheet Hub.
| Denver | Rank | @ | Kansas City | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.5 | Spread | -10.5 | ||
| 19.25 | Implied Total | 29.75 | ||
| 24.2 | 10 | Points/Gm | 25.6 | 9 |
| 36.2 | 32 | Points All./Gm | 16.0 | 5 |
| 56.8 | 31 | Plays/Gm | 66.2 | 8 |
| 64.8 | 22 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 62.0 | 12 |
| 5.8 | 7 | Off. Yards/Play | 5.8 | 8 |
| 7 | 32 | Def. Yards/Play | 4.9 | 8 |
| 37.32% | 27 | Rush% | 41.69% | 19 |
| 62.68% | 6 | Pass% | 58.31% | 14 |
| 48.77% | 31 | Opp. Rush % | 36.13% | 4 |
| 51.23% | 2 | Opp. Pass % | 63.87% | 29 |
- The Chiefs have won 15 consecutive games against the Broncos, the longest winning streak in this rivalry.
- The Chiefs are allowing 2.8 scoring plays per game, second in the league.
- Denver is allowing 5.8 scoring plays per game, 31st in the league.
- Denver has allowed opponents to score on 54.7% of their possessions, 31st in the league.
- A league-high 39.2% of passing plays against Denver have resulted in a first down or touchdown.
- The Broncos have allowed the most plays of 15 or more yards (48) and 20 or more yards (28) in the league.
- Kansas City has converted a league-high 51.5% of their third downs. The league average is 40.1%.
- The Chiefs have converted a league-high 46.2% (12-of-26) of third downs needing seven or more yards. The league average is 24.2%.
- Denver has converted 4-of-10 (40%) of their goal-to-go possessions, the lowest rate for any team to have five or more attempts.
- The Broncos are averaging 83.4 fewer rushing yards per game than their opponent, the worst differential in the league.
- 33.6% of the Kansas City rushing attempts (excluding kneel downs) have resulted in a first down or touchdown, the highest rate in the league.
Trust = spike production for that player
Quarterback
Patrick Mahomes (TRUST): Mahomes is the QB6 in overall fantasy scoring, but he does only have one week finishing as a top-six scorer at the position.
This is a week where he should be able to drop a genuine spike week.
Denver has been one of the league’s worst defenses to open 2023.
They are allowing league-highs in completion rate (77.3%), yards per pass attempt (9.2 Y/A), and touchdown rate (8.4%) to opposing passers.
The only quarterback to not score more fantasy points than they average versus the Broncos was Zach Wilson last week.
Denver has particularly struggled to defend downfield passing, allowing opposing passers to complete 37-of-50 passes (74.0%) for 781 yards (15.6 Y/A) with five touchdowns and two interceptions (132.5 rating) on throws 10 yards or further downfield.
The league averages on those passes are a 49.3% completion rate, 10.7 Y/A, and an 86.4 rating.
Russell Wilson: Closing last week as the QB11 (18.7 points) against a good New York Jets defense, Wilson has now finished as a top-12 scorer in four of the opening five weeks of the season.
Wilson has completed 66.9% of his passes with 11 touchdowns and two interceptions.
At this point last season, he had completed 59.4% of his passes with four touchdowns and three interceptions.
Wilson also has 119 rushing yards, which is 10th at the position.
Delivering against the Jets gives gamers even more faith in Wilson as a fringe-QB1 fantasy option here in another tough spot.
The Chiefs have allowed a 60.9% completion rate (eighth) and 6.0 yards per pass attempt (fifth) to opposing passers.
They have allowed a pair of passing touchdowns the past two weeks to Zach Wilson and Kirk Cousins, but they have not allowed a quarterback to throw for 7.0 yards per attempt since Week 1.
Running Back
Isiah Pacheco (TRUST): The two highest snap rates of Pacheco’s career have come over the past two weeks as he continues to distance himself from this backfield.
Pacheco is still conceding long down and distance and two-minute work to Jerick McKinnon, but we are seeing stable usage from Pacheco in all other facets of this backfield.
Pacheco has handled 76.7% (23-of-30) and 73.9% (17-of-23) of the backfield touches the past two weeks and has handled at least 60.0% of the touches in four of five games.
Pacheco has not wasted those touches, turning in three consecutive RB1 scoring weeks.
Getting touches against this Denver defense is all we are looking for.
Opposing running backs have scored 44.8% of the fantasy points that Denver has allowed, which is the highest rate in the league.
Over the past four weeks, the Broncos have allowed the RB1 (Brian Robinson), RB1 (De’Von Achane), RB2 (Raheem Mostert), RB8 (Khalil Herbert), and RB3 (Breece Hall) in weekly scoring.
Denver RBs: Without Javonte Williams available on Sunday, Samaje Perine out-snapped Jaleel McLaughlin 38-to-21 against the Jets, but it was McLaughlin who once again made the most of his opportunity.
McLaughlin turned 12 touches into 89 yards and a touchdown, his third of the season.
McLaughlin rushed nine times for 68 yards. He only has 22 carries this season but has five runs of 10 or more yards. Only De’Von Achane has a higher rate of explosive runs (28.9%) than McLaughlin’s 22.7%.
McLaughlin has been too good to put back in the bottle, which makes this a muddy situation if Williams does return this week.
If we do see Williams held out another week, then McLaughlin is an upside RB3/FLEX.
The Chiefs are allowing 4.76 YPC to running backs (26th) but have faced the fourth-fewest attempts per game from opposing backfields (16.4) since they control game scripts.
With Denver as a large road underdog, we should anticipate Perine to lead this backfield in snaps for the third straight game.
He also was usable last week in full-PPR formats, catching 4-of-5 targets for 73 yards while rushing six times for 22 yards.
With an implied game script lending itself to Perine’s receiving role, he is a floor-based FLEX in PPR formats.
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Wide Receiver
Denver WRs: This is still a receiving unit led by Courtland Sutton and Jerry Jeudy.
Sutton leads the team in targets (31), but both Jeudy (1.59) and Marvin Mims (4.82) have averaged more yards per route run than Sutton (1.32) has.
Sutton plays 78% of his snaps on the outside, where the Chiefs have been at their best to open the season when defending wide receivers.
Kansas City is allowing a 52.3% catch rate (fifth) and 7.0 yards per target (sixth) to opposing boundary wide receivers.
Sutton has a team-high 24.0% target share in the red zone if we are chasing a touchdown, but this matchup makes him a FLEX option.
Jeudy has more of a signal as a WR3/FLEX.
Kansas City is still only allowing 5.8 yards per target (fifth) on targets to interior wideouts, but 46.9% of the wide receiver receptions against the Chiefs have come from the slot (seventh highest). They are 29th in receptions allowed to interior wide receivers overall.
Mims still leads the team in receiving yards (246), but he was once again buried last week, running fewer pass routes (12) than Brandon Johnson (25).
Mims and Johnson are only dart throws in single-game DFS.
