Denver Broncos Fantasy Football Preview 2023

As part of the Sharp Football Draft Kit, Raymond Summerlin is posting a fantasy football preview for all 32 NFL teams.

This preview includes advanced stats, the fantasy football outlook for Russell Wilson, Jerry Jeudy, Courtland Sutton, Greg Dulcich, Javonte Williams, and every other notable Bronco, in-depth analysis of the coaching staff, passing game, and rushing attack.

Find a link to every team preview in our Draft Kit Hub.

Highlights:

• Sean Payton was known for his high-volume passing attacks in New Orleans, but that was not what we saw over his final couple of years there. With Drew Brees fading and then retiring, the Saints were five percent under their expected pass rate during the 2020 and 2021 seasons. They were four percent over expected from 2010 to 2019.
• Returning from injury in Week 13, Jerry Jeudy was the WR8 in per-game scoring over the final six weeks. That number was inflated by a three-touchdown game against the Chiefs, but he would have been the WR16 even without those scores. He was the WR21 in per-game scoring for the season despite Russell Wilson's struggles.
• Samaje Perine showed well when asked to start for the Bengals last season, averaging 5.2 yards on 48 touches. He was the RB9 and the RB6 in his two starts. If Javonte Williams misses any time, he should be a fantasy starter.

2022 Broncos Stats (NFL Rank):

• Points: 287 (32nd)
• Total Offense: 5,527 (21st)
• Plays: 1,078 (14th)
• Offensive TDs: 29 (28th)
• Points Per Drive: 1.44 (30th)
• EPA+ Per Play: -7.8 (27th)
• Situation Neutral Pace: 30.91 seconds (15th)

2023 Broncos Coaching Staff:

• Head Coach: Sean Payton
• Offensive Coordinator: Joe Lombardi

Broncos Country, Let’s Cry!

Russell Wilson’s first season in Denver was an abject disaster. The offense could not throw the ball, run the ball, protect the quarterback, or score points. Other than that, though…

Nathaniel Hackett took the fall for that incompetence just 15 games into his tenure as head coach. He will be replaced by Sean Payton, who makes his return to the NFL after just one season.

Denver also brought in Joe Lombardi, aka the coach that ruined Justin Herbert, as offensive coordinator, but this should be Payton's offense as it was when the two worked together in New Orleans.

Payton was known for his high-volume passing attacks with the Saints, but that was not what we saw over his final couple of years there.

With Drew Brees fading and then retiring, the Saints were five percent under their expected pass rate during the 2020 and 2021 seasons. They were four percent over expected from 2010 to 2019.

Denver also might have tipped their hand with their offseason additions.

The Broncos spent big on RT Mike McGlinchey and LG Ben Powers while also adding block-first TE Chris Manhertz. They also signed Samaje Perine as Javonte Williams’ backup and insurance in case he is not ready to start the season.

Denver needed to upgrade their offensive line to help out Wilson, but those additions open the possibility Payton plans an offense more similar to his later Saints teams (50.2% neutral pass rate, 25th in the league from 2020-2021) than the glory days with Brees.

Ultimately, the splits will not matter much if Payton cannot get Wilson back on track. If he can, every member of this offense will have a good chance at a fantasy bounceback.

2022 Broncos Passing Stats:

• Dropbacks: 662 (10th)
• Neutral Pass Rate: 50.9% (17th)
• Pass Rate Over Expected: -2.1% (14th)
• Pressure Rate Allowed: 27.3% (31st)
• ESPN Pass Block Win Rate: 62% (9th)

2023 Broncos Passing Game Preview:

The Broncos will face the 12th-easiest passing schedule based on 2022 efficiency numbers.

• QB: Russell Wilson, Jarrett Stidham
• WR: Jerry Jeudy, Marquez Callaway
• WR: Courtland Sutton, Marvin Mims Jr.
• WR: Tim Patrick, KJ Hamler
• TE: Greg Dulcich, Chris Manhertz, Adam Trautman

It is unlikely Sean Payton would have taken this job if he did not believe Russell Wilson could run his offense the way he wants to run it.

Wilson was bad last year, though, finishing near the bottom of the league with a completion rate four percent under expected and around people like Matt Ryan, Mac Jones, Taylor Heinicke, and Carson Wentz in EPA per dropback.

Sacks have always been a concern for Wilson, but he was taken down a league-high 55 times last season, a 10.2% sack rate. The offensive line did get an upgrade this offseason, but Wilson carries a share of the blame for that total and will need to improve in the new offense.

Wilson was the QB21 in fantasy points per game last season, but there were some positive signs on that front late in the season. He finished as the QB3, QB19, QB5, and QB1 over his final four games.

Two of those three performances were boosted by good rushing numbers – 4-57-0 and 4-27-2 – something that is no longer a big part of Wilson’s fantasy profile.

Over the first nine seasons of his career, Wilson averaged 31.3 rushing yards per game. Over the last two, he has averaged 15.9 including 18.5 rushing yards per game last season.

That rushing decline is not unexpected given Wilson’s age, but there are reasons to expect a bounceback.

Brees was never a runner, but Payton was infatuated with Taysom Hill, and Jameis Winston averaged 23.7 rushing yards per game in his one season with the coach despite 4.97 speed.

Even so, Wilson’s passing numbers will be more important to his fantasy value at this point in his career.

Perhaps Wilson is just cooked – he also was not good after his finger injury in 2021 – but it is tough to believe a 34-year-old quarterback who had been among the most accurate passers in the league all of a sudden became one of the least accurate.

Now he gets a major coaching upgrade in Sean Payton, a better offensive line, and still has a solid group of skill players around him.

Going as the QB18 in early drafts, he is the perfect late-round quarterback bet. If he hits, it is a massive advantage. If he doesn't, it is time to stream.

Wilson bouncing back would be great news for his pass catchers, especially if it comes with a volume boost.

*Preseason Update: Jerry Jeudy suffered a hamstring injury during practice on August 24. He had to be carted off the field and is expected to miss several weeks, putting his Week 1 availability in serious doubt.

As Rich Hribar notes, this should be good news for Courtland Sutton‘s early season fantasy value.

Courtland Sutton ran 183 routes last season with Jerry Jeudy off the field.

On those routes…

2.20 Yards/Route
29.7% of the team targets
39.9% of air yards
23.5% target/route rate

Marvin Mims is now on the roster, but a lot is breaking in Sutton's favor to open the year.

— Rich Hribar (@LordReebs) August 24, 2023

Following a rookie year to forget, Jerry Jeudy has established himself as the best receiver in Denver despite missing a few games the last two seasons.

In 15 games last year, Jeudy put up a 67-972-6 line on his way to a WR21 finish in fantasy points per game among receivers. He was 14th among qualifying receivers in yards per route run (2.16).

Returning from injury in Week 13, Jeudy was the WR8 in per-game scoring over the final six weeks. That number was inflated by a three-touchdown game against the Chiefs, but he would have been the WR16 even without those scores.

While he lacks the size of Marques Colston and Michael Thomas, Jeudy’s usage over the last two years (11.2 air yards per target, 60% slot rate) better matches those high-target players from Payton’s past than Courtland Sutton’s profile.

Even in a bad passing game, Jeudy was able to meet his current late-WR2 draft value last season, and there is at least a chance this passing game is better and better suited for him specifically moving forward.

As for Sutton, he has averaged 8.6 fantasy points per game so far in his career – would have been the WR43 last season – and has finished one season inside the top 40 at the position.

Sutton’s usage seemingly should have fit well with Wilson. 15.1% of his routes were at least 20 yards down the field, the fourth-highest in the league.

He had 20 targets of 20 air yards or more last season (18th) but caught just 30% of those (77th). A quarter of those targets were deemed inaccurate, a solid rate for these kinds of targets, so a lot of those struggles fall at the feet of Sutton.

Sutton has caught 37.1% of his career deep targets, which would have ranked 58th last season.

His 1.61 career yards per route run would have ranked 41st last season among qualifying receivers.

There is some touchdown upside here. Sutton tied for the team lead with six targets in goal-to-go situations last season and led the team with 14 targets into the end zone.

Despite that usage, he scored just two touchdowns for the second season in a row. He dramatically underperformed his expected total each season.

Perhaps that is just a function of his general inefficiency as a receiver, but it would not be a surprise if that touchdown luck bounced back.

Sutton will not cost a lot and comes with upside outs if the passing game improves or his touchdown luck turns around, and training camps plus his early preseason performance suggest he may have turned the corner and be ready to live up to his ability.

Tim Patrick missed all of 2022 after suffering an ACL injury in training camp, and he is set to miss this year due to a torn Achilles suffered early in camp.

With KJ Hamler also dealing with a medial situation, the path is open for second-round WR Marvin Mims to have an immediate role.

A burner (4.38 40) who averaged 19.5 yards per catch in college, Mims should be able to immediately help out as a deep threat and, unlike the rest of the group, was selected by the current regime.

The Broncos likely drafted Mims in preparation for a future without Sutton, Jeudy, or both, but he suddenly looks like the favorite for the No. 3 job.

If he shows well and Sutton continues to struggle, he could end up being more than that.

Mims' ADP is certain to rise, but he is a great later-round pick.

*Preseason Update: Dulcich shared playing time with Adam Trautman in the first two preseason games. Bad as a run blocker last year, there were always concerns he would not be on the field in 1TE sets (see below), and it looks like those concerns are valid. It will be difficult for him to meet his draft cost if he is only a part-time player. 

The counting numbers were not great, but Greg Dulcich had a decent first season given the offensive limitations, the usual struggles of rookie tight ends, and his injury issues in training camp.

While active in Weeks 6 through 16 as a rookie, he was the TE10 in fantasy scoring and TE9 in expected points scored. He had five top-12 scoring weeks over those 10 games with just three weeks lower than TE16.

That was despite finishing 26th in yards per route run among the 74 tight ends to run at least 100 routes, showing there is room for efficiency improvement.

Now set to get a healthy offseason in a better scheme, Dulcich is a decent bet to improve those efficiency numbers moving forward and has already drawn the eye of his new coach.

Payton said Dulcich’s “menu is going to be lengthy in the passing game and there’s enough stuff we can do in the run game.”

The end of that quote raises at least some concern he will not be on the field in one tight end sets, but the beginning offers hope he will continue to be near the league lead in routes per game – fifth among qualifying tight ends last season.

Among the slew of “meh” options that make up the second tier of fantasy tight ends, Dulcich at least offers some hope of weekly usability even if there are questions.

2022 Broncos Rushing Stats:

• Rushing Attempts – Scrambles: 415 (18th)
• Yards Before Contact Per Attempt: 2.8 (14th)
• Football Outsiders’ Adjusted Line Yards: 4.35 (20th)
• ESPN’s Run Block Win Rate: 74% (3rd)

2023 Broncos Running Game Preview:

The Broncos will face the fifth-easiest rushing schedule based on 2022 efficiency numbers.

• RB: Javonte Williams, Samaje Perine, Tyler Badie, Tony Jones Jr.
• OL: Garett Bolles, Ben Powers, Lloyd Cushenberry, Quinn Meinerz, Mike McGlinchey

Health will play a large role in determining the fantasy value in this backfield.

Javonte Williams‘ fantasy outlook was murky after he only lasted four games in 2022 before suffering multiple ligament tears in his right knee.

He has seemingly crushed his recovery, however, and is even expected to participate in the preseason.

It looks like Williams will be close to a full-go for Week 1. If he is, he still will likely have to split time with Samaje Perine, who the Broncos signed to a two-year, $7.5 million contract in March.

Perine showed well when asked to start for the Bengals last season, averaging 5.2 yards on 48 touches. He was the RB9 and the RB6 in his two starts.

He could handle a larger share of the work early in the season while Williams gets back up to speed.

The real question is what happens once Williams is 100 percent?

Sharing time with Melvin Gordon, Williams has averaged just under 15 touches per game to this point in his career, a number that would have ranked 25th among running backs last season.

His 10.35 fantasy points per game thus far in his career would have ranked 27th last season.

Now he has Perine with him, and Payton has a mixed history of using committee backfields.

Payton committed to big workloads at times, especially with Alvin Kamara, but Williams is not the three-down weapon Kamara is.

Williams has a solid 1.18 yards per route run to this point in his career, but he has been more of a dump-off player with -0.48 air yards per target.

Williams seems to fit better in the Mark Ingram mold, who averaged 14.6 touches per game during his first run with the Saints (2011-2018).

Especially if Perine handles most of the work in the passing game, that “Mark Ingram” role could be a concern for Williams' upside even if he is fully healthy.

That said, both Ingram and Kamara were RB1s in 2017 when the Saints were one percent under their expected pass rate.

This could all be overthinking. Perhaps Williams is just the more talented runner, will come back healthy, and will jump up to the 18 or so touches per game he likely needs to be a weekly RB1, especially if the offense improves.

Betting on that was easier when Williams was going in the RB30 range in early drafts, but that cost is certain to rise now that he looks on pace for Week 1.

Perine is currently going a little bit later, and that cost continues to fall.

That could turn into a value if Perine operates as the passing-down back in a Payton offense, similar to Kamara's rookie season or Pierre Thomas, who is probably a better comp from a talent and workload perspective.

While it is unlikely this offense is as pass-heavy as those Saints teams with Drew Brees at the helm, even that Thomas role would give Perine a shot at standalone value.

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