The Worksheet, a fantasy football overview by Rich Hribar, breaking down everything you need to know for the Week 11 Denver Broncos vs Minnesota Vikings Sunday afternoon game on November 17, 2019 at 1 pm ET.
| Denver | Rank | @ | Minnesota | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.5 | Spread | -10.5 | ||
| 14.25 | Implied Total | 24.75 | ||
| 16.6 | 28 | Points/Gm | 26.2 | 9 |
| 18.9 | 7 | Points All./Gm | 18.2 | 5 |
| 60.4 | 26 | Plays/Gm | 62.8 | 20 |
| 61.7 | 9 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 62.4 | 13 |
| 42.7% | 12 | Rush% | 51.9% | 3 |
| 57.4% | 21 | Pass% | 48.1% | 30 |
| 43.6% | 25 | Opp. Rush % | 35.4% | 4 |
| 56.4% | 8 | Opp. Pass % | 64.6% | 29 |
- Minnesota has held eight opponents below their implied team total, the most in the league.
- The Broncos have 20 or fewer points in six consecutive road games.
- The Vikings have allowed opponents to score on 28.2% of their possessions in Minnesota this season, the fifth-lowest rate in the league.
- Denver is averaging 1.7 red zone possessions per game over their past three games, 30th in the league.
- Minnesota has scored on 55.3% of their possessions at home this season, the highest rate in the league.
- Minnesota is second in the league in points per play at home this season (.496).
- Opposing teams have scored a touchdown on 13.3% of their drives against the Broncos, the third-lowest rate in the league behind the 49ers (11.3%) and the Patriots (7.0%).
- Dalvin Cook leads the NFL in first down runs (50), runs of five or more yards (73), and is tied for the lead in runs of 10 or more yards (25) on the season.
Trust (spike production for that player)
- Dalvin Cook: Cook is second in the league with 141.5 yards from scrimmage per game with his only two games with fewer than 100 YFS coming against the Bears and Eagles. The Broncos aren’t in that weight class, facing 29.9 backfield touches per game (29th) and entering this week as a huge road underdog.
On the Cusp (proxy of a player’s average)
- Courtland Sutton: Sutton had a season-high 40% of the team targets in Brandon Allen’s first start, catching 5-of-8 targets for 56 yards and a touchdown. There’s still a pedestrian floor there without the touchdown, but target share is sky-high and the Vikings have allowed 15 touchdowns to opposing wideouts, tied for the most in the league.
Bust (down-week production for that player’s standards)
- Kirk Cousins: Cousins has been a top-10 scorer in five of his past six games, but has lived off touchdown production a bit of late. In the past two games, Cousins has averaged just 5.8 Y/A and 6.9 Y/A with 220 passing yards in each game. Cousins has faced three teams in the top half of the league in passing points allowed and has thrown for 230, 233, and 220 yards in those three games with 6.8 Y/A. The Broncos rank fourth in passing points allowed per game (10.5) and have not allowed a top-12 scoring week on the season.
- Stefon Diggs: After a three-game tear against the Philadelphia, Detroit, and Washington secondaries, Diggs has come down to earth in tougher wideout matchups against the Chiefs (WR81) and Cowboys (WR42), who rank fifth and second in points allowed to receivers. The Broncos are third against wideouts as Diggs will draw Chris Harris for the full game assuming Adam Thielen is not yet ready to return to action early in the week. Denver is fifth in the league in points allowed to opposing WR1 options at 11.2 points per game with just one touchdown allowed since Week 1 to lead receivers.
- Brandon Allen: Allen was a feel-good story in his first career start in Week 9, but was 12-of-20 passing with 42% of his fantasy output coming on a busted 75-yard catch and run score. For his second start, he heads to Minnesota, where the Vikings have allowed just six top-12 scoring weeks in the 52 home games since hiring Zimmer in 2014.
- DEN RBs: Phillip Lindsay is still the main fantasy back to target here as he has five RB2 or better weeks while Royce Freeman has three. As a road dog with one of the lowest team totals of the week, this is a tough spot to feel good about either, though. Minnesota is sixth in rushing points allowed per game (9.4) and seventh in receiving points allowed per game (8.8) to backfields while they have allowed just five top-12 scoring weeks in the 50 games since hiring Zimmer in 2014.
If You Must (intriguing bench option or deeper league play)
- Noah Fant: Fant has received 25% and 20% of the team targets in the two games since trading away Emmanuel Sanders. He posted the crux of his 3-115-1 line in Week 9 on a 75-yard catch and run, something that we can’t count on as a regular occurrence, but he is now the second target in this passing game. Minnesota is 31st in receptions allowed to tight ends (6.4 per game) and opposing teams have targeted their tight ends 26.2% of the time versus the Vikings, the second-highest rate in the league.
- Kyle Rudolph: Rudolph has 14.4% of the team targets over the past four games with Thielen sidelined, but has totaled just 15 catches for 112 yards in those games. Where he’s pulling his fantasy weight is in the touchdown department, catching four touchdowns in those games with six end zone targets. Denver has only allowed one touchdown to an opposing tight end this season, but are 22nd in receptions allowed per game (5.1) to the position.
More Week 11 Fantasy breakdowns from The Worksheet:
PIT at CLE | HOU at BAL | NO at TB | ATL at CAR | DAL at DET | JAX at IND | BUF at MIA | NYJ at WAS | DEN at MIN | ARI at SF | CIN at OAK | NE at PHI | CHI at LAR | KAN at LAC
