The Worksheet, a fantasy football overview by Rich Hribar, breaking down everything you need to know for the Week 9 Cleveland Browns vs Denver Broncos Sunday afternoon game on November 3, 2019 at 4:25 pm ET.
| Cleveland | Rank | @ | Denver | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -3 | Spread | 3 | ||
| 21 | Implied Total | 18 | ||
| 19 | 25 | Points/Gm | 15.6 | 28 |
| 25.9 | 22 | Points All./Gm | 18.9 | 8 |
| 58.7 | 29 | Plays/Gm | 62.6 | 21 |
| 65.3 | 22 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 60.2 | 7 |
| 38.4% | 22 | Rush% | 42.3% | 12 |
| 61.6% | 11 | Pass% | 57.7% | 21 |
| 46.0% | 26 | Opp. Rush % | 44.2% | 25 |
| 54.1% | 7 | Opp. Pass % | 55.8% | 8 |
- Denver games are averaging 34.5 combined points per game, the fewest in the league.
- The Broncos are allowing 314.8 fantasy yards per game, behind only the Patriots (260.6) and the 49ers (254.6).
- Baker Mayfield has completed 10-of-33 (33.3%) red zone passes this season, the lowest rate for all passers with double-digit red zone attempts.
- Opponents are converting 40.9% (9-of-22) of their red zone possessions versus the Broncos, the third-lowest rate in the league.
- Mayfield is 31st in the league with 68.2% adjusted completion percentage.
- Denver has averaged a league-low 4.6 yards per offensive play over the past three weeks.
Trust (spike production for that player)
- Nick Chubb: Chubb has at least 98 total yards in each of the past five games while posting 131 or more yards in four of his past five games. Averaging 22.1 touches per game, Chubb gets a climate in which the Browns are favorites against a Denver defense 21st in yardage allowed per game (134.6) to backfields.
On the Cusp (proxy of a player’s average)
- Jarvis Landry: Landry has managed to be a WR3 or better in three of his past four games, but has just one week this season higher than WR30. Denver has limited wideouts all over, ranking fourth in points allowed per game to slot wideouts. Duke Dawson has started for Denver in the slot since Wek 4 while ranking 10th of 52 slot corners in yards allowed per coverage snap (0.48) over that span.
- Denver RBs: Both Phillip Lindsay and Royce Freeman each posted top-24 scoring weeks in Week 8. Freeman has played more snaps in each of the past four games, but has out-touched Lindsay in just one on those games. There’s been a slight shift to Freeman near the goal line with Freeman getting his first two touches from inside of the 5-yard in each of the past two games after Lindsay had handled all of those touches through six games. With the change to Allen, Denver should continue to lean on their backfield while Cleveland is allowing 160.4 yards from scrimmage to opposing backfields (27th).
Bust (down-week production for that player’s standards)
- Baker Mayfield: Mayfield hasn’t played well himself and has run into a tough slate to open the season and it doesn’t get much easier this week. Mayfield is at the bottom of the league in passing rate in the red zone and under pressure this season while producing just one QB1 scoring game so far through seven games. Denver is fourth in passing points allowed per game (9.9) and have yet to allow a top-12 scoring week on the season.
- Odell Beckham: Beckham has reached 60 yards in just one of his past five games and runs into his second-straight rough individual matchup. After a modest 5-52 week against the Patriots, Beckham will be shadowed by Chris Harris on the boundary. Denver is fifth in points allowed to WR1 options per game (11.0) with only Tyreek Hill posting a top-30 scoring week over their past seven games. Harris has been targeted once every 9.3 coverage snaps, which is the sixth-lowest rate out of 78 qualifying cornerbacks at Pro Football Focus.
- Brandon Allen: Allen has been in the league since 2016, but has yet to throw a pass in the NFL. In four years of preseason action, Allen has averaged 6.7 yards per pass attempt with six touchdown passes and 11 interceptions.
If You Must (intriguing bench option or deeper league play)
- Courtland Sutton: Sutton is averaging 79.3 receiving yards per game over the past six weeks, but with the move to Allen, Sutton and all passing game members have had their floors lowered since Allen is such an unknown. Sutton had made a jump up to a 65% catch rate this season after a 50% one as a rookie.
More Week 9 Fantasy breakdowns from The Worksheet:
SF at ARI | HOU vs JAX | TEN at CAR | NYJ at MIA | MIN at KC | CHI at PHI | WAS at BUF | IND at PIT | DET at OAK | TB at SEA | CLE at DEN | GB at LAC | NE at BAL | DAL at NYG