As part of the Sharp Football Draft Kit, Raymond Summerlin is posting a fantasy football preview for all 32 NFL teams.
This preview includes advanced stats, the fantasy football outlook for Deshaun Watson, Amari Cooper, Elijah Moore, David Njoku, Nick Chubb, and every other notable Brown, and in-depth analysis of the coaching staff, passing game, and rushing attack.
Find a link to every team preview in our Draft Kit Hub.
Highlights:
- Deshaun Watson had a completion rate 3.9 percent under expected in his six starts last season, was 1.6 yards under his career air yards per attempt average, and was 2.4 yards under his career average in adjusted yards per attempt.
- Amari Cooper was 15th among qualifying receivers in yards per route run (2.07) and 11th in target share (26%) last season. He finished as the WR17 in fantasy points per game.
- Nick Chubb has now gained at least five yards per carry every season of his career. He was fifth among qualifying running backs in EPA per rush despite ranking 14th in the rate of his runs against heavy boxes.
2022 Browns Stats (NFL Rank):
- Points: 361 (18th)
- Total Offense: 5,934 (13th)
- Plays: 1,116 (7th)
- Offensive TDs: 38 (15th)
- Points Per Drive: 1.89 (18th)
- EPA+ Per Play: 1.3 (12th)
- Situation Neutral Pace: 32.12 seconds (23rd)
2023 Browns Coaching Staff:
- Head Coach: Kevin Stefanski
- Offensive Coordinator: Alex Van Pelt
Jim Schwartz was brought in to lead the defense, but Kevin Stefanski and Alex Van Pelt will return for their fourth season in charge of Cleveland’s offense.
Stefanski has led elite rushing games even back to his one year as Vikings coordinator in 2019, but the passing offense has been low volume and just midpack in efficiency during his three years with the Browns – five percent under their expected pass rate and 15th-ranked EPA per dropback since 2020.
That passing game was supposed to get better with Deshaun Watson at quarterback, but he looked rusty during his six games in 2022.
Watson had a completion rate 3.9 percent under expected in those games, was 1.6 yards under his career air yards per attempt average, and was 2.4 yards under his career average in adjusted yards per attempt.
The pass rate mostly stayed the same with Watson. Over the final six weeks, the Browns were 24th in neutral pass rate (46%) and seven percent below their expected pass rate.
Cleveland did use more 11 personnel last season – 19th in the league after finishing 27th and 30th the previous two seasons – and that trend should continue with the Browns trading for Elijah Moore and drafting Cedric Tillman.
It is not a surprise Watson was rusty, and that is a very limited sample size in which his receivers struggled with drops (7.7 percent drop rate).
Still, unless Stefanski suddenly tilts more to the pass, Watson will need to be more efficient moving forward to maintain his and his pass catchers’ fantasy value.
2022 Browns Passing Stats:
- Dropbacks: 614 (21st)
- Neutral Pass Rate: 48.8% (22nd)
- Pass Rate Over Expected: -7.6% (27th)
- Pressure Rate Allowed: 22.5% (20th)
- ESPN Pass Block Win Rate: 68% (2nd)
2023 Browns Passing Game Preview:
The Browns will face the 15th-toughest passing schedule based on 2022 efficiency numbers.
- QB: Deshaun Watson, Josh Dobbs
- WR: Amari Cooper, Marquise Goodwin
- WR: Donovan Peoples-Jones, Cedric Tillman
- WR: Elijah Moore, David Bell
- TE: David Njoku, Jordan Adkins
As mentioned above, Deshaun Watson had a rough return to the league.
Over his six starts, he averaged 183.7 passing yards, 1.2 passing touchdowns, and 0.8 interceptions per game.
For his career prior to last season, he averaged 269.2 yards, 1.9 TDs, and 0.7 INTs per game.
Over those six games, Watson was 24th among quarterbacks in EPA per play and over three percent under his expected completion rate.
Watson did still provide fantasy points on the ground, rushing for 29.2 yards per game and scoring a touchdown.
He was the QB19 in per-game scoring from Week 13 to the end of last season.
Despite all of those well-documented struggles, Watson is currently the QB9 in early drafts and coming off the board in the first 85 picks.
The rationale for that is fairly straightforward.
As mentioned above, Watson was still productive on the ground even as he struggled as a passer last season. Over his six starts, the was the QB12 in rushing fantasy points per game.
Secondly, Watson was a significantly better passer in Houston than he showed last season.
He averaged 8.3 yards per attempt in Houston compared to 6.5 last year. His touchdown rate was 5.9% before last season. His EPA per dropback was 0.15 in Houston, which would have ranked fourth last season.
Perhaps missing nearly two seasons destroyed his ability, but Watson has a much longer history of being good than the six-game sample from last season in which he was forced into a new offense near the end of the season.
After the elite quarterbacks are off the board, taking a shot on Watson bouncing back makes a lot of sense, and it is easy to stream quarterbacks if Watson struggles again in 2023.
Amari Cooper saw his numbers slip a bit after Watson took over, but he still had an amazing first season in Cleveland.
Cooper finished with 1,160 yards and nine touchdowns on 78 catches. All three numbers easily paced the team.
He was 15th among qualifying receivers in yards per route run (2.07) and 11th in target share (26%). He finished as the WR17 in fantasy points per game.
His weird home and road splits remained – WR10 per game at home, WR34 on the road behind Donovan Peoples-Jones – but Cooper is the clear No. 1 receiver in a passing game that is reasonably expected to be better in 2023.
Elijah Moore’s fantasy outlook is a little more interesting.
Following a promising rookie season in which he managed 1.75 yards per route run on his way to a 43-538-5 line, Moore fell out with the Jets’ coaching staff and was targeted just 65 times in 16 games last season.
He is getting a fresh start this year after the Browns traded the equivalent of a Day 3 pick to acquire him in March.
There are two concerns when it comes to Moore’s fantasy value.
First, will there be enough volume to go around with Cooper locked in as the No. 1, David Njoku coming off a career-high for targets per game, and Donovan Peoples-Jones coming off a solid season?
As mentioned above, the Browns’ pass rate did not increase when Watson took over last season. That certainly could change now that Watson will get a full offseason, but volume is as worry.
Second, Moore did not command targets playing with Garrett Wilson last season (13.2% target per route rate), and it is fair to wonder if his rookie season was the product of the Jets having very little else at receiver.
On the other hand, Moore was used primarily as a deep threat early last season – 15.0 averaged depth of target from Week 1 to Week 6 – a role that does not lend itself to target volume, and he was in the doghouse after expressing displeasure with that usage.
Now escaped from the quarterback hell that was the 2022 Jets, Moore should get a chance to prove his rookie production was not just a fluke.
Even if he does, though, it could be difficult for Moore to return consistent fantasy value as long as Cooper is healthy and commanding a large share of the targets.
A role in the running game could help offset those volume concerns, however.
Kevin Stefanski has said the team plans to use Moore in “a bunch of different ways,” and the receiver took one carry for 18 yards in the second preseason game.
Donovan Peoples-Jones found himself in a similar situation last season, finishing as the WR52 in per-game scoring despite finishing second on the team with an 18.9% target share.
He still managed career-highs with 61 catches for 839 yards, and he also found the end zone three times.
DPJ has not commanded targets thus far in his career (1.57 yards per route run, 15.7% target per route rate), and now he has even more target competition.
He is just a late-round dart throw in the hopes he solidifies himself in the No. 2 role and the Cleveland passing game takes a step forward.
Peoples-Jones could also get pressured by third-rounder Cedric Tillman, the Browns’ first pick of this year’s draft.
At 6-foot-3, 213 pounds, Tillman seemingly is the heir apparent to Peoples-Jones on the outside.
As mentioned above, David Njoku set career-highs in targets per game (5.7) and receptions (58), matched his career-high with four touchdowns, and earned 628 yards through the air.
He finished as the TE9 in per-game scoring. He was 12th among qualifying tight ends in yards per route run.
The addition of Moore could put some pressure on his target total, but the possibility of Watson returning to form creates a ton of fantasy upside.
Njoku is a fine upside pick once the top seven tight ends are off the board.
2022 Browns Rushing Stats:
- Rushing Attempts – Scrambles: 495 (5th)
- Yards Before Contact Per Attempt: 2.7 (17th)
- Football Outsiders’ Adjusted Line Yards: 4.41 (14th)
- ESPN’s Run Block Win Rate: 72% (8th)
2023 Browns Running Game Preview:
The Browns will face the third-toughest rushing schedule based on 2022 efficiency numbers.
RB: Nick Chubb, Jerome Ford, Demetric Felton
OL: Jedrick Wills, Joel Bitonio, Ethan Pocic, Wyatt Teller, Jack Conklin
With Kareem Hunt no longer in the picture, Nick Chubb suddenly finds himself in a much less crowded running back room.
Although it is not as if that competition has affected his fantasy performances.
The RB10 in fantasy points in 2021, Chubb followed that up with an RB6 per-game finish last season.
He rushed for 1,525 yards and 12 touchdowns and hauled in 27 passes for an additional 239 yards and a score. He set career-highs in rushing yards, yards from scrimmage, and total touchdowns.
Chubb has now gained at least five yards per carry every season of his career. He was fifth among qualifying running backs in EPA per rush despite ranking 14th in the rate of his runs against heavy boxes.
That heavy box rate was actually the lowest Chubb has faced since 2019, and he could see even more light boxes moving forward if Deshaun Watson bounces back and the Browns use more three-receiver sets.
Receiving output is always a concern for Chubb.
While he did catch the second-most passes of his career last season with 27, he finished 23rd among running backs in routes run, and only 17 of those came on third down (73rd).
Hunt ran a similar number of overall routes, but he was in the pattern on 120 third-down plays, the third-most in the league.
Likely No. 2 Jerome Ford did not run a route as a rookie – he only played 14 snaps on offense all season – so it is tough to know how much he can contribute in the passing game. He only caught 31 passes total in college.
Chubb’s passing usage remains uncertain, but there is an open path here for him to set a career-high in receptions, something that would seriously boost his fantasy profile.
There is also a chance for more touchdowns.
Hunt never go close to the 11 touchdowns he scored in 2020, but he did find the end zone nine times in 25 games over the last two seasons.
Hunt and D’Ernest Johnson – who filled in for Hunt in 2021 – had a combined 20 rushes in goal-to-go situations over the last two seasons and three targets.
Chubb has 32 carries and two targets on goal-to-go plays over that same span.
There is some significant touchdown upside here if Chubb simply stays on the field more often close to the goal line, especially if Watson bounces back and creates more scoring opportunities.
Chubb has already established himself as a reliable RB1, and he has several avenues to be even better in 2023.
He can be taken as high as the back end of the first round and RB3 overall in fantasy drafts.
As for Ford, Hunt was the RB51 in expected fantasy points per game last season and the RB57 in actual fantasy points per game.
It is tough to see Ford getting a bigger workload, but he does have contingency value assuming he earns the No. 2 job.
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